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本文探讨一个复杂的问题:自2004年成为北约成员国的拉脱维亚,俄罗斯是否可能成功占领该国。基于对截至2026年2月的情报评估、军事仿真和地缘政治动态的分析,本文重构了威胁的多层面性质,涵盖从混合战争到常规入侵情景。特别关注俄罗斯能力、北约的防御承诺以及波罗的海地区的特定脆弱性之间的平衡。西方情报机构的一致意见表明,尽管俄罗斯构成显著的混合战与网络威胁,但实施能够占领拉脱维亚的常规军事入侵将面临重重障碍,主要原因是拉脱维亚的北约成员身份以及在北约第五条下的集体防御承诺。
100 days ago · From China Online
 

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