US-China relations Keywords:, China, USA

A. S. DAVYDOV

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Relations with the People's Republic of China today are among the most important and significant for the United States, since it is China - a rapidly developing and ideologically alien to America - that represents a force capable of challenging its global superpower status. US-China relations are characterized by both interaction and cooperation between the parties, and their sharp mutual rivalry, which in reality resembles an iceberg: only a small part of it remains visible, and the main confrontation between the two countries is veiled.

At times, the confrontation breaks out, as it happened in January 2010 in connection with Washington's decision to start supplying another batch of weapons and military equipment to Taiwan.

In its official statements, Beijing reacted harshly to this decision.

On January 30, 2010, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei made a "serious presentation" to the US Ambassador to China, J. R. R. Tolkien. Huntsman in connection with Washington's announcement of plans to supply Taiwan with the Patriot-3 anti-missile system, Black Hawk combat helicopters, minesweepers and other military equipment worth about $6.4 billion. He stressed that this " will inevitably damage Sino-American relations and negatively affect contacts and cooperation between the parties in many important areas, leading to undesirable consequences for the parties."¹. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese side decided to postpone the implementation of part of the projects on contacts between the Chinese and US armed forces, Sino-American consultations at the level of deputy ministers in the field of strategic security, non-proliferation and arms control, and impose sanctions on US companies involved in arming Taiwan. The US decision to supply weapons to the island has also had a negative impact on Sino-American cooperation in global and regional affairs.²

However, in essence, both sides behave with restraint. In addition to the Deputy Foreign Minister, the rest of the protests were made at the level of the Head of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China and the representative of the Taiwan Affairs Office at the State Council of the People's Republic of China.

People's Daily columnists wrote that " China and the United States are inclined not to escalate the dispute over the US decision to sell weapons to Taiwan, since both countries do not intend to damage their economic relations and cooperation in global affairs." They noted that the decision to sell arms to Taipei was made in 2008, during the Bush administration. An expert of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fan Jishe, positively assessed the statement of US Secretary of State X. Clinton said that the two countries have developed "mature" relations that allow them to cope with such differences.: "The United States needs China's help on many issues, including the nuclear issues of Korea and Iran." At the same time, he noted the danger of increasing tensions between ^the two countries in the event of a meeting between Obama and the Dalai Lama or foreign trade frictions3.

On February 18, 2010, Obama met with the Dalai Lama for the first time in his presidency. The White House tried to soften this painful action for Beijing: it took place without a joint appearance in public and not in the Oval Office, as in the time of George W. Bush, but in the cartographic library, thereby emphasizing its "spiritual" rather than political character4.

HOW DO I COMBINE INCOMPATIBLE THINGS?

The United States and China are nations that differ from each other in a number of important ways. They are located on different continents, speak different languages, have dissimilar historical and cultural roots and traditions, little compatible political systems, different socio-economic systems, and differ

spiritual and religious values.

At the same time, both these nations are united by their inner conviction that the status of a world leader is predetermined for each of them, and their claims to a vanguard global role.

Every US president faces a serious dilemma when working out the future course towards China.

How to combine practically incompatible things? On the one hand, it is necessary to continue strengthening relations with Beijing, drawing it more and more actively into the international system of political, economic and financial institutions formed largely by the West, while at the same time contributing to the strengthening of China's weight, authority and influence, and, ultimately, state power. On the other hand, it should strive to contain China's galloping growth in an attempt to maintain its leadership in the world.

It's not an easy task. Finding the edge of a precarious balance between these two essentially mutually exclusive political approaches is a much more complex and subtle task than, for example, openly and bluntly luring China into "friends against the USSR", as it was in the 1970s-80s, or its frontal "containment and restriction" in the early 1990s- x years.

Although the United States is well aware that openly going against China means feuding with a powerful and numerous world ethnic group, which includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and many enclaves in Southeast Asian countries. Washington is seriously concerned about China's desire to acquire the status of a global superpower, which, according to many American analysts, may become a reality after the annexation of Taiwan. At the same time, they are clearly aware that the Chinese themselves do not intend to postpone this matter in a "long box".

Despite the global crisis, or rather because of it, China has significantly strengthened its position in the global economy, almost catching up with Japan, which ranks 2nd in the world in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, released in January 2010, this figure in 2009 reached 33 trillion 535.3 billion. yuan ($4.91 trillion)⁵, equal to Japan's GDP ^{in 2008.6}

China expects to complete the transition from an industrial power to a technological power (like Japan or Germany) by 2011, and on this basis, as well as through the active and accelerated expansion of relations with the outside world, to secure a dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region.

Raising its sovereign status from technological to innovative over the next 5-7 years, China aims to achieve the implementation of the Xiao Kang program by the beginning of the 2020s - achieving the level of average prosperity - a symbol of people's well-being. And by 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China) China is determined to complete the modernization process by making the idea of its own national greatness a reality, thereby demonstrating all the advantages of the path of "socialism with Chinese characteristics"that it has chosen.

In terms of geostrategy, both sides are focused on implementing mutually exclusive schemes.

If Beijing's ultimate goal is to complete the "gathering of land" under the auspices of Greater China (China with Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, plus rallying with ethnically related enclaves of Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Korea, Vietnam and other Asian countries), then the United States, apparently, is not satisfied with this prospect.

INVOLUNTARY ADJUSTMENTS

As many American analysts have noted, by the end of the first four-year term in office, the Bush administration, faced with serious setbacks in world politics, was forced to review and partially correct its main foreign policy vectors.

Speaking at Georgetown University in January 2006, then-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry Rice emphasized that "in the twenty-first century, growing nations such as India, China, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, and South Africa increasingly determine the course of historical development." ⁷

since the current US diplomacy no longer reflects these changes, it was decided to regroup the US diplomatic contingent, starting with the deployment of 100 employees of the State Department and embassies in European countries to China, India, Nigeria, Lebanon, etc.

The Bush administration has had to take a more sober approach to its relations with the PRC, both because of the rapid rise of China in many key dimensions at once, and because no other country in the world has such a huge human resource potential, or has such a strong and deep-rooted influence in the regions of Northeast and Southeast Asia, where the United States has always maintained serious political and economic interests. In addition, at the end of 2008, there were 17,000 U.S.-invested businesses in China with annual sales revenues exceeding $1 billion. The number of employees was about 2.2 million. Total U.S. investment in the Chinese economy has reached almost $60 billion.⁸

In the fall of 2006, the bilateral "US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue" was launched, and regular mutual consultations began on a wide range of issues-from energy cooperation and exchange rate adjustment to the DPRK's nuclear program, Darfur, etc. The United States began to encourage China's participation in the G8 and international financial and economic cooperation. institutions. And US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick (now head of the World Bank) called for moving beyond the policy of involving China in international organizations and making China a pillar, a "responsible shareholder" of the world community, interested in maintaining the existing system.

The main result of the development of relations between the United States and China during the 8 years of Bush's presidency was that after a number of "failures", the parties were able to gradually reduce the mutual confrontational intensity, replacing it with moderate progress in opposite directions. Having reached an acceptable level of stability, they outwardly maintained mutual restraint, demonstrating ostentatious friendliness.

However, external well-being is deceptive.

If Washington is wary of Beijing's policy aimed at putting an end to the American model of a unipolar world, then China is wary of hidden, if not overt, US efforts to slow down China's growing geopolitical influence.

The Americans ' assessment of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing was characteristic. Back in November 2007, during a meeting of the author of these lines with representatives of the Organizing Committee of the Beijing Olympics, they expressed serious concern about planned subversive actions by "internal and external forces" aimed at disrupting the Games. The former included Uighur separatists, forces grouped around the Dalai Lama, and representatives of the banned religious organization Falun Gong. "External forces", according to the Chinese interlocutors, meant "those in the West who are dissatisfied with China's active foreign policy in different parts of the world, including in Africa, who believe that China has invaded the former Western fiefdom and is pulling the blanket over themselves, who are afraid that China's sporting victories will be even wider." the gates will be opened for its political, trade, economic and demographic expansion." "Despite China's unwillingness to escalate relations with America, it is nevertheless very concerned about Washington's inflammatory actions in Pakistan, its continued presence in Iraq and attempts to subdue this country, as well as preparations for war with Iran," it said. But the biggest concern is the activity of US security agencies against China itself."

Having won the largest number of gold medals at the Olympics, brilliantly organized and held in Beijing, the Chinese regarded their success as a "moral victory".

There is a strong interest in the "soft power theory" of the American scientist Joseph Nye in Chinese academic circles. Its meaning lies in the fact that power can be demonstrated not only in "hard" ways, i.e. with the help of military force and economic coercion, but also at the expense of attracting other countries to their ideas, culture and political institutions.

This interest is not idle. While the Chinese leadership does not yet have military parity sufficient for a military confrontation with the United States, it seems that it intends to apply the postulates of the Nai in practice and try to become "mildly strong", demonstrating its readiness to share its experience of successful development and at the same time emphasizing its commitment to the principles of pluralism and peaceful integration (as opposed to American messianism and imperial thinking).

This involves a whole range of technologies-from using international media channels to creating cultural centers and spreading Confucius institutes around the world. In contrast to the idea of the" American dream", an alternative concept of the" Chinese dream " is being put forward, and the Olympics have essentially become the most important advertising product of the new China. It showed that on the propaganda front, China will not reduce, but increase its momentum.

And this is just one of the arguments in favor of the fact that in the future, the rivalry between the United States and China will not just continue, but may escalate and, having crossed the borders of the Asia-Pacific region, move to other regions and other continents.

MORE PRAGMATISM - GOOD AND DIFFERENT

In Chinese politics, the Obama administration inherited a combination of approaches typical of its predecessors, B. Clinton and J. Bush. The course is aimed at further intensifying attempts to involve the PRC in global economic and political processes, while limiting the opportunities for independent "counterplay" by China.

During the election campaign, while developing his ideas about relations with the PRC, Obama said that he would "push" Beijing to "play a more responsible role" in helping American leadership in solving common problems of the twenty-first century, and this is quite consistent with Zoellick's concept of a "responsible shareholder" mentioned above.

On the other hand, the new American leader indicated that the United States would not only cooperate with China, but also "compete with it", in particular, spreading democratic values.

As many observers have pointed out, in contrast to the change of previous US administrations, which was usually accompanied at first by friction and disagreements in relations between the US and China, this time, thanks to the joint efforts of both countries, a relatively "smooth transition"was made.

The new Democratic administration initially showed some restraint in assessing the prospects for its relations with China. Speaking at the Senate confirmation hearing for her post of Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton said that although China "is extremely important to the United States as one of the actors that will change the picture of the world... but in many ways, our actions depend on his choice in domestic and foreign policy. " ⁹

The coming to power of the Democratic administration coincided with the most acute phase of the global financial and economic crisis. And the problems associated with overcoming it have come to the fore in Sino-American relations.

Back in 2007, China began implementing a program to dump its dollar reserves by purchasing various types of movable and immovable assets-from technology and airliners to mineral deposits in Africa. Efforts in this direction are being intensified along with a program to increase domestic demand, which in a few years may significantly reduce dependence on foreign markets and capital.

X's first foreign visit Clinton, as the new US Secretary of State in February 2009, traveled to 4 Asian countries, the main one of which, admittedly, was China.

During the talks in Beijing, the parties agreed to expand the bilateral strategic dialogue on economic issues to include security issues. Most of all, Clinton was concerned that China would continue to buy US Treasury bonds, which China had accumulated by that time in the amount of $696.2 billion. While expressing an interest in working with China on a range of important issues, Clinton clearly muted the human rights issue, saying bluntly at a press conference in Beijing: "We will continue to put pressure on them... But pressure on these issues should not interfere with addressing the global economic crisis, global climate change and security crises. " ¹⁰

During Obama's meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao in April 2009 at the summit of 20 leading economic powers in London, an agreement was reached on the US-China strategic and economic dialogue, covering both strategic and economic areas of cooperation between the two countries in world affairs - from strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime, especially in connection with the DPRK's ambitions and Iran in this area, resolving regional conflicts, improving relations between the US and Chinese military departments, and overcoming the global crisis ¹¹. According to J. R. R. Tolkien:Bader, senior direk-

The head of the White House considers China as a "major global player, a leader" ¹².

The US administration during the negotiations promised China to halve its financial deficit after the economic situation improves. China, for its part, announced its intention to strengthen macro-regulation and expand domestic consumption.

According to the parties, the need for a new definition of relations between America and China "due to new starting points and looking to the future" required to review and regulate interstate relations between the two countries, based on strategic and long-term prospects. As a result, China reaffirmed its priority on developing ties with America, and the US side stated that bilateral contacts with China have become "extremely constructive" and active ties with it are "necessary for the future peace, progress and prosperity of the United States."

The meeting in London was described as "the opening of a new era in the history of healthy and stable development of Sino-American relations." ¹³

The April meeting between Obama and Hu Jintao in London was, however, only a prelude to their main dialogue, which took place in November 2009 in Beijing during the visit of the American president to China, which took place as part of his trip to 4 Asian countries.

On November 17, a lengthy Joint Statement was issued following "in-depth, constructive and frank" consultations between Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Barack Obama on bilateral relations and other issues related to the two countries ' common interests. In it, the parties outlined the state and prospects of cooperation in five main areas: China-US relations, development and deepening of strategic trust between the two countries, economic cooperation and global economic recovery, regional and global challenges, climate change, energy and the environment ¹⁴.

The leitmotif of the statement was the thesis that the United States and China intend to consistently strengthen partnership in addressing common challenges, expand the base of cooperation and joint responsibility on the main problems of global stability and prosperity. In particular, both sides expressed hope for the earliest resumption of the multilateral mechanism within the framework of the six-party talks on the Korean peninsula nuclear issue, called on Iran to continue constructive contacts with the six-party Group and fully cooperate with the IAEA, called for deepening cooperation in the fight against terrorism, etc.

Commenting on the results of the summit, US Ambassador to China Huntsman said that US-Chinese relations have reached a stage where more and more attention is paid to global issues. Both countries expressed their readiness to step up cooperation in the military and humanitarian fields, in the fight against global climate change, in the use of environmentally friendly energy sources and in jointly overcoming the consequences of the economic crisis. ¹⁵

At a joint news conference, Obama indicated that he and the Chinese president discussed measures needed to strengthen the global economic recovery so that economic growth brings new jobs and lasting prosperity. Noting that "partnering with China has helped us get out of the worst recession in generations," he said the two sides agreed to pursue a strategy of more balanced economic growth. This strategy calls for America to save more, spend less, reduce its long-term debt, and China to take steps to rebalance the economy at a new level and stimulate domestic demand. Obama also recalled China's promise to make the yuan exchange rate more marketable.¹⁶

However, Hu Jintao in his speeches did not mention a word about the possibility of progress in the issue of the exchange rate of the national currency of the People's Republic of China, which the American side considers artificially low and allows China to flood the American market with cheap goods.

Obama, although in a delicate way, did not avoid some sensitive issues, in particular, the issue of human rights.

In his speech to students in Shanghai, the American president emphasized that human rights are a universal value, and Americans agitate for them, so to speak, by the power of their example: "We do not seek to impose a system of government on other countries, but we do not believe that the principles we stand for belong only to our country. We believe that freedom of speech and religion, access to information and participation in political life are universal rights. These rights should be enjoyed by all people, including ethnic and religious minorities, in the United States, China, and any other country. " ¹⁷

And while Obama confirmed in a Joint Statement that the United States considers Tibet part of Chinese territory, in his speeches in China, he called on Beijing to negotiate with the Dalai Lama.

The main result of Obama's visit, paradoxically, was a much deeper and clearer understanding of this by the American political elite.-

today's China. And the conclusion is that China is on the rise and will not deviate from the planned path, unless there are some radical changes inside the country. He is firm in his aspirations, uncompromising and unyielding, respects and recognizes only strength. It will continue to step up its efforts solely in its own interests, pursuing long-planned goals that, as China's power and strength strengthen, will transform into a desire to gain the status of a major world power.

AND AFTER THE SESSION...

Having shown flexibility during Obama's visit to China, the current US administration has moved to a cautious but systematic process of reinforcing its principled positions on such sensitive issues of US-China relations as Taiwan, the protection of human rights and national minorities in China, especially in Tibet, protectionist measures and more persistent pressure on Beijing on some issues international security, in particular the introduction of sanctions against Iran.

In addition to delivering a new batch of American weapons and military equipment to Taiwan and Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a call in January 2010 to lift restrictions on public access to the Internet in China and said that Beijing would come under "strong pressure" because of its refusal to approve new sanctions. United Nations Security Council Resolution against Iran ¹⁸.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu, commenting on the US Secretary of State's speech on Internet access, "demanded an end to unfounded accusations against China under the pretext of so-called Internet freedom." ¹⁹

It cannot be ruled out that in the political sphere, in the near future, the contours of relations between the two powers may vary in a wide range - from the activation of China's foreign policy actions on the approaches to solving its main task at the moment, the annexation of Taiwan, with rather sluggish resistance from Washington, to the possible escalation of the confrontation on the Taiwan issue the entire complex of bilateral relations or their individual segments.

If this happens, then other issues that form a potential conflict in relations between the two countries will also come to the fore: Washington's concern about the growing military power of China, the huge imbalance in bilateral trade, as well as increased cooperation with Russia in the military-strategic field, which can be considered as an outright challenge to US national security interests.

KIMERICA: GIFT OR TRAP?

Reacting to the desire of the overwhelming majority of countries, including China and Russia, to form a multipolar world, American theorists from geopolitics have made another attempt to impose on the leaders of the United States and China a new concept of the world order - the "project of common destiny" - "Kimerica" (China +America). Obviously, in tactical terms, the American side's calculation when it was nominated was primarily to attract China's resources to find ways out of the crisis, while strategically this project was aimed at unleashing a new major geopolitical game, the result of which in the future was to become another global rise of the United States.

Former Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security in the Administration

In a January 2009 program article published in the Financial Times of London, Brzezinski stressed that developing strategic cooperation, the United States and China should create a "big two" that "can significantly change the situation in the world." He "advised" Beijing and Washington "not to forget about their interdependence, to deepen and expand geostrategic cooperation" ²⁰.

It should be noted that in general, the idea of "Kimerica "did not arouse much enthusiasm in Beijing, where it was openly stated that it"not only runs counter to the strategic course towards political multipolarity in the world, but can cause concern among most countries and harm China's relations with its main strategic partners." Indeed, it is difficult to imagine that China will suddenly agree to "bipolarity" with the United States as a "junior partner", since Washington unconditionally reserves the "first fiddle".

It would be naive for the United States to expect China to also agree to voluntarily adopt Western-style democracy and the model of Western civil society.

Some Chinese analysts are wary of joining the "duumvirate", fearing that by trying to involve China more in global affairs, Washington will drag it into efforts and costs that will weigh heavily on the country.

The dots over the "I", at least for the near future, were placed by Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Wen Jiabao. During a meeting with Obama on November 18, 2009, he said that China does not agree with the idea of the so-called "big two". China is still a developing country with a huge population, and it still has a long way to go to transform itself into a modernized State. China pursues an independent and independent peaceful foreign policy and has no intention of entering into an alliance with another country or a group of countries, the Chinese premier said. Global problems should be solved by all States of the world, not by one or two countries ²¹.

* * *

The United States cannot prevent the rise of China and seeks to ensure that the PRC has no choice but to become a full-fledged participant in the existing international system of rules and institutions, while ensuring that the integrated power of the Middle Kingdom does not go beyond this system. They want to remain the leader of this system and expect that it will remain dominant in the current century.

For Washington, in its relations with Beijing, it is important to have such channels of influence on the PRC that would allow it to achieve its goals in emergency situations without entering into direct confrontation with it. This requires, however, taking into account many different factors, a deep knowledge and understanding of the national mentality of the Chinese, as well as everything that can be conditionally included in the concept of "Chinese specifics".

The United States and China, as the two most influential actors in future international relations, are already looking for ways to adapt to each other. While clashes are inevitable in this quest, compromises and mutual concessions are not only possible, but also necessary.

¹ Xinhua, 30.01.2010 - http://russian.news.cn/china/2010-01/30/c_13156906.htm

² Ibid. - http://russian.news.cn/china/2010-01/30/c_13157297.htm

³ Chinadaily, 13.01.2010 - www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/13/content_9310330.htm

⁴ Washington Post, 19.02.2010; New York Times, 19.02.2010.

⁵ www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/t20100121_402615502.htm

⁶ The IMF website. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Database, October 5, 2009. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects - http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?

⁷ http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2006/0103/rice/rice_georgetown.html

⁸ People's Daily online, 08.12.2008 - http://russian.people. com.cn/31518/6549122.html

⁹ Senate Confirmation Hearing: Hillary Clinton. Transcript. 13.01.2009 - http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/us/politics/13text-clinton.html?_r-l&pagewanted=print

¹⁰ Bloomberg, 22.02.2009 - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ news?pid=20670001&sid-apSqGtcNsqSY; Guardian, 22.01.2009 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/21/hillary-clinton-china-economy-human-rights/print

¹¹ White House website. The White House Press Office. Statement on Bilateral Meeting with President Hu of China. 1.04.2009 - http://www.whitehouse.gov/

¹² Reuters, 3.05.2009 - http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/ default.asp?page-2009\05\03\story3-5-2009_pg4_1

¹³ People's Daily online, 06.04.2009 - http://russian.people.com.cn/31520/6630406.html

¹⁴ White House website. The White House Office of the Press Secretary. November 17, 2009. U.S. -China Joint Statement. Beijing, China - http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/us-china-joint-statement; Жэньминь жибао он-лайн, 17.11.2009 - http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6815798.html; http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6815909.html; http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6815943.html; http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6815655.html

¹⁵ People's Daily Online, 11/23/2009 - http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6820110.html

¹⁶ White House website. The White House Office of the Press Secretary. November 17,2009. Joint Press Statement by President Obama and President Hu of China. Great Hall, Beijing, China -http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/joint-press-statement-president-obama-and-preside nt-hu-china

¹⁷ White House website. The White House Office of the Press Secretary. November 16, 2009. Remarks by President Barack Obama at Town Hall Meeting with Future Chinese Leaders. Museum of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China - http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-town-hall-meeting -with-future-chinese-leaders

¹⁸ Boston Globe, 30.01.2010.

¹⁹ People's Daily online, 23.01.2010 - http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6876919.html

²⁰ Financial Times, 14.01.2009.

²¹ People's Daily online, 19.11.2009 - http://russian.people.com.cn/31521/6817249.html

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