Libmonster ID: CN-1268

S. L. SAZONOV

Candidate of Economic Sciences

K. A. PETRUNKO

Graduate student

Wu ZI (China)

Graduate student

Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: China, Russia, ASEAN, "Silk Road Economic Belt", "Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century", railways, integration, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Development Fund

On September 7, 2013, in Astana, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the University. Nazarbayev delivered a keynote speech in which he proposed that the Central Asian countries (CA), "which occupy a priority place in the foreign policy of the PRC," jointly implement the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) creation plan. The plan provides for expanding the construction of railways and highways that will connect the Central Asian countries and China. In the future, the combined transport network will create a transport corridor from the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) to the countries of Western Europe.

In October of the same year, during the APEC summit (Bali, Indonesia), the President of the People's Republic of China launched an initiative to create the "Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century" (MSHP), which will allow connecting the combined railway and road transport networks of the southern provinces of China and Southeast Asian countries with the main ports of the region. After that, the SREB should connect the seaports of the ASEAN countries, and then extend along the route Yellow Sea-East China Sea -South China Sea-Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, and even further-to the ports of the countries of the South Pacific, South Asia and East Africa.

The MSHP project was put forward by the far-sighted and prudent Chinese after and in conjunction with the ground-based SREB. This project is designed to secure the upcoming multibillion-dollar investments (up to $800 billion). over the next decade) from unforeseen risks and consequences of possible conflicts. If they occur, the two projects will back each other up, although to varying degrees, taking into account the geophysical features of land and sea.

In 2015, China continued negotiations on the construction of high-speed railways with a total length of 5 thousand km with 28 countries, most of which were located along the SREB and MSHP routes. In 2014, China's trade turnover with countries located along the SREB and SREB routes exceeded $1.12 trillion, accounting for 25% of China's total foreign trade turnover.1

On December 29, 2014, the Government of the People's Republic of China decided to create a $40 billion Fund together with leading Chinese state-owned and commercial banks. for infrastructure development along the SREB routes, the size of which may increase in the future 2. The investment will primarily be aimed at improving the transport network of the central and western Chinese provinces along which the SREB route will pass, as well as at developing the infrastructure of the countries of Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia, through which the transit Euro-Asian and pan-Asian routes will be laid.

ONE BELT, ONE ROAD INITIATIVE

Based on the "go abroad" strategy, the SREB and MSHP plans (today in China, these two initiatives of Xi Jinping are called "One Belt, One Road") are aimed at increasing Chinese foreign direct investment (PII), increasing the volume of exports of Chinese innovative products of the transport industry and advanced technologies. This, in turn, will allow monopolizing the Euro-Asian market for the construction of transport networks. The transport network created abroad will accelerate the economic development of the central and western provinces of China, and by increasing continental transportation, the growth of China's foreign trade will be stimulated.

The geopolitical aspects of the Belt and Road plan are obvious. China is trying to consolidate its presence in the markets of European countries. By increasing its investment in the infrastructure of neighboring countries, China is giving an additional impetus to the intensive development of its regional economy. Chinese

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PPI, which is aimed at creating and modernizing the transport networks of the Central Asian countries, allows the PRC to develop its production capacities and load its machine-building complex with long-term orders.

It should be noted that investments are provided by China on exclusively preferential terms and only under the obligation to use Chinese equipment, technologies and equipment with the involvement of qualified specialists from China for their maintenance and operation*. The current investment policy of the PRC in the Central Asian region, coupled with the strategy of" going abroad " and plans for the construction of the SREB, will allow China to receive significant economic and geopolitical dividends in the future.

The SREB development plan is not limited to solving transport problems, although the infrastructure aspect is the core of the Chinese initiative. In a concentrated form, the Belt and Road plans are formulated as "dong weng, Bei Qiang, Xi jing, Nan Xia" (ensure stability in the East, rely on the North, move West, descend South). By the North, Chinese politicians mean the policy of strengthening mutually beneficial partnership with the Russian Federation. The implementation of the plan will ensure the strengthening of China's economic and, consequently, political influence in the countries of Neutral, Western, South and South-East Asia, Transcaucasia, and Eastern Europe.

China's active integration into Central Asia was a natural result of the region's transformation into the central link of the Eurasian transport corridor. The geographical proximity of Central Asia, the relative political stability in the region, and the real possibility of creating transport corridors, taking into account the Central Asian states ' policy of diversifying export supplies-all this makes the Central Asian region extremely attractive for China. Over the past 13 years, the volume of trade between China and the five Central Asian countries has grown 11-fold , from $12.1 billion in 2001 to $130 billion in 2013.! China has already become the main trading partner of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the second for Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the third for Tajikistan.

Today, China has become the "general distributor of transit flows" through two railway checkpoints in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), determining the number and choosing routes for transporting domestic and transit cargo to Europe. It is quite obvious that, along with China, Kazakhstan is also becoming the main link in Eurasian transit. Thus, the spatial geopolitics of China is turning into a multi-variant one - the creation of parallel and complementary exits to Europe not only through the congested transport system of the Russian Federation, but also through the railways of Central Asia, which reduces possible risks and ensures the growth of cargo traffic.

By increasing investment in the infrastructure of neighboring countries, China is giving an additional impetus to the intensive development of its own regional economy. Chinese R & D projects aimed at creating and modernizing the transport networks of the Central Asian countries allow the PRC to develop its production capacities and load its own machine-building complex with long-term orders. The current investment policy of the PRC in the Central Asian region, coupled with the strategy of" going abroad " and plans for the construction of the SREB, will allow China to receive significant economic and geopolitical dividends in the future.

NORTHERN ROUTE OF THE UNIFIED TRANSPORT HIGHWAY (ETM)

For a long time, the Alashan-kou-Dostyk checkpoint remained the only railway crossing on the Chinese-Kazakh border. In 2013, a 293-km section of the Zhety-gen-Altynkol-Khorgos railway from Kazakhstan was completed, and the Kazakhstan railway connected to the 286-km Jinghe-Yining-Khorgos railway. With the opening of the Khorgos checkpoint, the autonomous region has become a transport hub of international importance, combining rail, road and pipeline modes of transport and focused not only on Central Asia, but also on Europe.

One of the reasons for the weak competitiveness of continental Eurasian rail transport is the loss of time when changing wheel sets of railway cars. To solve this problem, the Chinese government decided to create a major international railway transport hub in Lanzhou (Gansu). From it to the Chinese-Kazakh border, railway tracks will be laid with a wider gauge that meets Russian (Central Asian) standards.


* As R. Burtovoy, Executive Director of the Russian-Chinese Trade Development Center, writes in his article "Investments from China: Expectations and Reality", "there is no large-scale inflow of investments from China to our country yet". See: Budget Magazine, No. 2, February 2014.

More than 90% of the Chinese money actually invested in the Russian economy is loans to Russian energy companies, primarily Rosneft and Transneft, in exchange for the construction of the Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean oil pipeline. Among the few non-resource projects, we can mention the construction of the Baltic Pearl residential complex in St. Petersburg. ed.).

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CENTRAL ETM ROUTE

According to the Chinese leadership, the central route of the ETM is the second most important direction of the continental corridor Europe-Asia and is an integral part of the SREB. The route provides transportation of export cargo from the ATP countries and China to the countries of Europe and the Persian Gulf. In 2013, China's trade turnover with the EU countries exceeded $580 billion, and by 2020, the parties intend to increase the volume of bilateral trade to $1 trillion'1. At the end of 2013, agreements were reached on China's participation in the construction of railways in Serbia, Hungary, Romania and Turkey.

The central ETM route in the direction of China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey-European countries (Lianyun-gang-Alashankou-Dostyk-Aktogay-Almaty-Te Jen-Mashhad-Seraks-Tehran-Tabriz-Ankara-Istanbul-Paris-Rotterdam) will provide direct access to the PRC and the three Central Asian states to Europe, to the major commercial ports of Bandar Ab-bas in the Persian Gulf and Chahbehar in the Gulf of Oman, to the countries of South and Southeast Asia.

According to the calculations of Chinese experts, the projected volume of cargo transportation along the central ETM route for the fifth year of operation of the railway line will amount to more than 10 million tons, and in the future it may exceed 20 million tons. In 15 years, the full return on capital expenditures for construction will be ensured.5

China's organization of this corridor through the existing connection to the railway network of Kazakhstan allows China to diversify its continental transit routes. If earlier Russia was considered the only transport corridor between Europe and Asia, today Russia has competitive routes that in the future can take away the vast majority of Euro-Asian transit from the Russian Federation.

SOUTHERN ETM ROUTE

In 2013, the governments of China and Pakistan reached an agreement on the construction of a 2,000-kilometer railway that will connect the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and the Pakistani port of Gwadar through Kashgar. Kashgar is located much closer to the countries of Central and South Asia than Urumqi. The port of Gwadar, built with the help of Chinese PDI and commissioned in 2007, is located in a strategically important "neck" of the Persian Gulf. It is located at a distance of 72 km from the border with Iran and 400 km from the main world oil transportation corridor - the Strait of Hormuz, through which the lion's share of oil imports to China is carried out6. It also provides for the construction of a highway and the Kashgar-Islamabad-Karachi-Gwadar oil pipeline running parallel to the railway.

The construction of a railway from Kashgar to Gwadar will reduce the time of cargo transportation to 10 days (compared to 30 days by sea). If the projects are successfully implemented, the deep-water Pakistani port of Gwadar will become an important artery for transporting Middle Eastern crude oil to China by land, bypassing the Strait of Malacca, and China will have the opportunity to export its goods to Arab countries.7

In 2013, the Pakistani government transferred operational control of Gwadar Port to China Overseas Holdings Limited in exchange for a $190 million investment in the port's development. In the future, China is considering connecting India and Bangladesh to this shoulder.

During an official visit to India in September 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for greater cooperation in the construction of a joint railway network as part of the SREB plan. The Chinese side agreed to assist in the reconstruction of the existing 8 railway lines, and to participate in the construction of the 1,754-km Delhi-Chennai All-Terrain Railway (ex. Madras). Chinese President announces $20 billion 5-year loan to India for the implementation of infrastructure and industrial projects. The parties also agreed to start construction of the MSHP and the Silk Road BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar). Xi Jinping said that China aims to bring the volume of trade turnover with South Asian countries to $150 billion in the near future. and increase the volume of Chinese PPI to $30 billion 9.

SOUTHEAST ASIAN TRANSPORT NETWORK

Over the past 20 years, a number of associations have been established in Asia, driven by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which unites 10 States. In 2013, China became the largest trade partner of ASEAN, and the Association became the 3rd largest foreign trade partner of the PRC. The volume of mutual investments has grown 3-fold over the past decade and in 2013 exceeded $100 billion.10 The volume of mutual trade increased from $55 billion in 2002 to $443.61 billion in 2013.11 By 2020, the volume of mutual trade is expected to increase to $1 trillion, and the volume of mutual investments will exceed $150 billion 12.

At the turn of the 21st century, foreign trade began to play an important role in the development of countries ' economies

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ASEAN and gradually developed an export-oriented economic growth model. Under these circumstances, investment in regional infrastructure development has been the main driver of economic development in Asia.

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK (AIIB)

At the 21st APEC Leaders ' Meeting (Bali, 2013), the Chinese President proposed the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). According to the Chinese leadership, such a financial institution will give a new impetus to regional infrastructure construction, reduce the outflow of capital from Asia, and boost economic growth not only in the countries of the region, but also around the world1!. Speaking at the Boao Forum (2015), Chinese President Xi Jinping noted that the AIIB, with an initial authorized capital of $100 billion, 14 will be a purely commercial institution, open to countries outside the region. In March 2015, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei announced that China's contribution to the AIIB's authorized capital would amount to $50 billion.15

On June 29, 2015, 300 delegates from 57 countries signed an agreement on the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Beijing. The top five co-founders in terms of investment volume are China, India, Russia, Germany and South Korea. Realizing that the AIIB in the future will threaten the hegemony of the World Bank (WB) and, accordingly, the interests of the United States, the US administration has conducted a major campaign to counteract the accession of some Asia-Pacific countries to the bank, in particular, Japan.

GREATER MEKONG SUBREGION AND PAN-ASIAN NETWORK

Initiated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB)* Since 1992, the Greater Mekong Sub - Regional Economic Zone (GMSEZ) project has been under development, which was formalized in 2004 and named the "Six-Party Economic Cooperation Zone". The Greater Mekong sub-region includes six countries adjacent to the Mekong River basin: Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and China (Yunnan Province), which have a population of more than 240 million people.

One of the main tasks of creating this economic zone was to develop regional transport infrastructure. Solving this problem allows the PRC to accelerate the development of border cities in Yunnan Province, which has a common (4 thousand km) land border with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GCHAR), which is the only region of the PRC that has a common sea and land border with the ASEAN countries. The cost of the project is $75 billion, but according to Chinese economists, the Pan-Asian railway will increase the GDP of China and Southeast Asian countries by $375 billion in the future16.

In 2013, the 19th GMSEZ meeting was held in Laos, where the "Greater Mekong Sub - region Development Plan 2013-2022 "was adopted. The Meeting also approved a plan to establish a "Greater Mekong Sub-region Railway Union". The meeting in Laos was the starting point for the creation of a pan-Asian network that will connect the railways and highways of the Southeast Asian countries by 2017.

The highway will consist of three railway / automobile routes in the eastern, central and western directions. The western branch will connect Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Phnom Penh, Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi and Kunming. 1 central line will connect Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Vientiane, Sha-nyun and Kunming. The eastern route will connect Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Yangon, Ruili and Kunming. The transport network will cover the territories of China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore, and its total length will be more than 5,5 thousand km17.

The unification of the Yunnan railway network with the Southeast Asian railways will provide China with access to the Indian Ocean. With the opening of the service along the entire length of the network in 2016, almost 7 million tons of cargo will be transported annually, with the prospect of increasing this volume to 26 million tons by 2025.18

On November 24-27, 2014, the 36th ASEAN Railway Development Conference was held in Hanoi (Vietnam). It reviewed and approved the construction of a number of railway lines in South and South-East Asian countries designed to "improve the connectivity of national railway networks and improve regional logistics". The conference approved plans for the construction of three new railways: Phnom Penh-Siem Raap (Cambodia), Kratyeh (Cambodia) - La border-


* The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a regional financial institution dedicated to long-term lending for development projects in the Asia-Pacific region. It was established in 1965 on the initiative of the United Nations to help countries in the region. Members of this organization are 48 countries of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as 18 European countries and the United States. In 2014, the total amount of loans issued was $22.9 billion. (editor's note).

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osa and Bat Deng (Cambodia)- Lok Ning (Vietnam) 19.

Within the framework of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone, sub-regional economic zones, SREB and LSI plans, China is implementing the 2nd Euro-Asian Transcontinental Highway (ETM-2) project. According to the plan, ETM-2 will start in the port cities of the Zhujiang River Delta and go west to Yunnan Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GUAR). Then the highway will connect Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore (the southern part of the route, the idea of which was developed back in the 1960s) 20. Then the highway will stretch through Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and reach Rotterdam (Holland). The total length of the route will be 14 thousand km, and the highway will cross the territory of 18 countries. A branch from the main highway will start in Turkey, stretch through the Middle East countries all the way to Egypt, activating traffic flows from China to Africa. The length of ETM-2 will be 6 thousand km shorter than the alternative sea route 21.

In the context of the growing confrontation between China and the United States, the plans to create the MSHP and ETM-2 play an exceptional role for the PRC in ensuring the country's economic security, since they create additional communications.

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE SYSTEM OF EURO-ASIAN TRANSPORT CORRIDORS

As the center of global economic activity shifts to the Asia-Pacific region, the importance of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) inevitably increases for our country. The prospects for Russia's full-fledged inclusion in the Asia-Pacific integration processes today are primarily determined by the creation of a national high-tech transport system and the use of those opportunities that have not yet been completely lost. It is quite obvious that the delay in the development of the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM), and the Russian Far Eastern ports creates clear potential challenges for Russia against the background of the rapid development of the PRC's transport network.

The importance of Trans-Siberian Railway reconstruction lies in the fact that we do not earn as much as we can on transit. Today, the Trans-Siberian Railway does not function as the international Eurasian transport corridor that it has always been. Russia cannot offer a transit network of the appropriate level, which could be of interest to foreign shippers.

A transcontinental corridor based on the Trans-Siberian Railway is definitely needed. However, given the high cost of the project, even a simple reconstruction of the Trans-Siberian Railway, the emphasis on the development of international Euro-Asian transit traffic seems to be a secondary task. This is due to the fact that possible future volumes of transit traffic will not be so significant that possible future revenues from them will make a significant contribution to the budget of the Russian Federation.

The main goal of the Trans-Siberian Railway and BAM reconstruction is to turn the highways into a tool for closer economic consolidation and to strengthen the connectivity of the country's territory. The construction and modernization of Russia's transport networks will boost the economic development of the surrounding territories, create new jobs, and undoubtedly make a significant contribution to strengthening the defense capability of the Russian Federation.

Since the transport network of the Russian Federation is not able to provide transportation of significant volumes of transit cargo from the Asia-Pacific countries to Europe, today the spatial geopolitics of China, which has become the central infrastructure link of Eurasian transit, has turned into a multi-variant one. When forming SREB and MSHP projects, the Chinese leadership plans to create parallel and complementary routes to Europe not only through the Russian Federation, but also through Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which reduces its possible infrastructure risks.

INTEGRATION OF RUSSIAN-CHINESE TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

Due to its geographical location, the Russian Far East is closely connected with China and North-East Asia (NEA) - the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation (Far Eastern Federal District) and the North-East of China (NEA) form a natural geographical and economic belt. In May 2014, Deputy Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Yuanchao, speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, proposed "creating a single economic zone that includes the Russian Far East and the ICS" 22.

For the Russian Far East, close economic ties with China (primarily), Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Southeast Asian countries can be just as useful as with the regions of the European part of the Russian Federation. And the existing political and economic obstacles that complicate mutually beneficial cooperation can be overcome by creating effective regional integration of Russian-Chinese transport systems.

Additional measures for the development of the transport system of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation would allow or-

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It is planned to integrate the Far Eastern infrastructure network into Chinese and international transport corridors and ensure their imperative integration with the transport system of the Russian Federation. Russia and China could become leading regional integration magnets, which, under certain conditions, can ensure the transformation of the cross-border infrastructure network into a multipolar regional transit structure. There is no doubt that if you join it and use its multiplicative effect, all the countries of the Asia-Pacific region will be able to get real benefits.

According to Chinese Ambassador to Russia Li Hui, "the transport infrastructure of the Far Eastern Federal District is an ideal testing ground that can become a" transport and communication gateway "for Russia both to China, which is a "turbo generator" of regional economic development, and to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The common interests of China and Russia are to create a Russian-Chinese integrated network, which can become a new platform for expanding trade and economic cooperation between the countries of Eurasia.

Russia's accession to the AIIB can make an invaluable contribution to the implementation of joint infrastructure projects. This step was supported by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. According to Putin, it will allow us to start implementing the plan as a "key SREB project". The Chinese press notes that "Russia's entry into the AIIB will become a catalyst for the accelerated development of the transport infrastructure of the Russian Far East and will stimulate economic cooperation with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region" 2!.

Under these circumstances, it would be highly desirable to intensify negotiations on the implementation of the Beijing-Moscow transport corridor project, as well as to complete the construction of its first section - the 770-km Moscow-Kazan High-speed railway-by 2018. This would double the capacity of the western section of the Trans-Siberian Railway, increase the volume of railway transit cargo flows formed in the central and western provinces of China and sent through Kazakhstan through the territory of the Russian Federation to Western Europe.

In turn, the transport infrastructure of North-Eastern China (NCC) in the direction of the Russian border to the main railway checkpoints is largely underloaded. Therefore, the primary task is to radically modernize the transport complex of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation, taking into account the nature of promising cargo flows, and transfer the Zabaikalsk section of the Far Eastern Railway to the shoulder./Grodekovo-Pacific ports account for a significant portion of cargo produced in the north-eastern and central provinces of China.

Since today the capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway is limited, part of this cargo flow can be switched to Chinese railways going in the western direction. A sharp increase in the transit potential of the Far Eastern Federal District will be a powerful impetus for the development of regional infrastructure integration, coupled with the treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the SREB plan.

PRIMORYE-2

We can get a significant benefit from the implementation of the MTC Primorye-2 project developed in the 1990s by Far Eastern scientists, which provides for the transit of goods produced in the north-eastern provinces of China through the ports of the Khasansky district of Primorsky Krai. Today, goods produced in the northeastern provinces of the People's Republic of China with a total area of 1.45 million km2 and a population of more than 120 million people who do not have their own access to the Sea of Japan are transported over long distances for export through the ports of the People's Republic of China. And this is despite the fact that the railway network of the north-eastern provinces of China is overloaded with regional cargo and cannot cope with foreign trade flows. In 2013, due to the limiting limitations of the ICS infrastructure network, 86 million tons of various cargoes were not exported.

Modernization of the railway infrastructure of the Khasansky district (construction of Pozharsky and Barsky sidings, reconstruction of the Makhalino-Hunchun border crossing) will make it possible to organize the transit of goods from the north-eastern provinces of China through the ports of southern Primorye (Slavyanka, Zarubino and Po-siet). The Makhalino (Primorsky Krai) - Hunchun (Jilin) border crossing could become a channel for the growth of Russian-Chinese transit container traffic.

There is no doubt that the loading of Russian maritime ports can be even more efficient if the plans for the construction of railways from Heilongjiang Province to Primorsky Krai, such as Dunning-Poltavka-Ussuriysk and Mishan-Turiy Rog, which were repeatedly discussed with the Chinese side, are implemented. To increase the volume of regional trade, railway bridges should be built between Heihe and Blagoveshchensk, Khulinsm and Lesozavodsky.

HOW TO REDUCE INFRASTRUCTURE RISKS?

It should also be taken into account that the transit option of capitalization of the Russian territory has certain economic risks. Today, China and other ASEAN countries are doing business-

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The Chinese government relies on stimulating domestic and regional demand, as was emphasized in Chinese President Xi Jinping's speech at the annual Boao Forum for Asia in 2015. Speaking at the Expo China-ASEAN International Exhibition in Nanning Ne in September 2014, Zhang Gaoli, Deputy Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, said that"over the next five years, the PPI to the ASEAN countries will exceed $500 billion, and China will import $10 trillion worth of goods from the region" 2/1. If within 5 - 10 years, the PPI to the If the ASEAN countries manage to ensure that the region becomes not only a center of industrial production, but also of consumption, the volume of transit traffic in the Euro-Asian region may decrease, and Russian investments in the development of transit infrastructure may not pay off.

Since the transport network of the Russian Federation is not able to provide transportation of significant volumes of transit cargo from the Asia-Pacific countries to Europe, today the spatial geopolitics of China, which has become the central infrastructure link of Eurasian transit, has turned into a multi-variant one. When forming SREB and MSHP projects, the Chinese leadership plans to create parallel and complementary routes to Europe not only through the Russian Federation, but also through Central Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which reduces its possible infrastructure risks.

PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ARCTIC ROUTES

All evidence suggests that the shift of the main axis of the world economy from West to East will lead to the formation of a developed Arctic economic zone with the participation of Russia and China. In recent years, the turbulent situation in the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Malacca, as well as political instability in a number of countries, have created a threat to the security of intercontinental navigation and increased the cost of sea transportation. Against this background, the Northern sea routes (the Eastern One along the Russian coast and the Western One along the Canadian coast) represent a safe zone for navigation and provide approximately 40% time savings compared to traditional cargo transportation routes from Europe to Asia and North America. 25

Chinese marine companies are more interested in the North Sea Route (SMI) than in another Arctic sea route, the Northwest Passage (NWF), which runs through Canadian and American waters. The reason is that the NSR, which has the same length as the NSR, is characterized by a more severe ice situation. According to Wang Hexun, Head of the East China Sea Navigation Center of the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China, the use of mass media allows vessels to reduce the distance of transportation by 25-55% compared to traditional routes for cargo transportation from Chinese ports on the east coast to ports in Western Europe, the North and Baltic Seas26.

The PRC is actively financing the development of the North Korean port of Rajin, expanding the transport corridor to it from the Chinese border. This port gives China a shorter access to the Arctic Ocean.

Chinese experts note significant difficulties that arise when passing through the NSR, due to the underdevelopment of the Russian coastal infrastructure and the low quality of logistics in the northern ports of the Russian Federation. Chinese experts believe that the current Russia will not be able to independently create normal conditions for the development of the NSR.

They note that Russia's interest in finding partners opens up new opportunities for China. China, facing difficulties in navigating ships on the NSR, is interested in studying the Russian experience of navigation in high latitudes and developing cooperation with the Russian Federation in the development of Arctic routes. In 2014, Russian-Chinese negotiations were held on the creation of a joint Russian-Chinese shipping company that will develop the Northern Sea Route and transport commercial cargo along it.

According to calculations by the Institute of Polar Research of the People's Republic of China, 90% of the country's foreign trade is provided by sea transportation, and the cost of 10% of foreign trade cargo transported by Chinese maritime companies along the NSR in 2020 may amount to $683 billion. Close Russian-Chinese cooperation in the development of the NSR and the growing volume of China's trade with European countries can radically change the structure and routes of maritime transport in Euro-Asia.

MEETING OF SCO TRANSPORT MINISTERS IN UFA

On May 15, 2015, Ufa hosted the Seventh Meeting of Transport Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where the parties stressed the importance of integrating transport systems, calling this a priority area of cooperation within the SREB. During the meeting, the heads of delegations discussed the current state and prospects for the development of multilateral transport cooperation within the SCO.

At the meeting of transport Ministers, it was decided to develop a road network development plan and put into operation joint projects in the field of railway infrastructure construction. Scheduled

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expand cooperation in the field of air transportation and the opening of new cost-effective air routes between the SCO countries, create international multimodal logistics centers, and strengthen exchanges of cooperation in the field of transport security, environmental protection, and the use of energy-saving technologies.

An important step aimed at strengthening cooperation in the field of transport is the adoption of a decision on the accelerated creation of a joint SCO bank, the funds of which will help to intensify joint cooperation between Russia and China in the construction of infrastructure facilities.

Two international summits were held in Ufa in July 2015. The heads of 12 states, two Governments and seven international organizations met at the BRICS and SCO forums. The parties adopted declarations signed by-

We have signed a number of documents and, most importantly, created several financial institutions.

* * *

International analysts recognize that the construction of Asian infrastructure will experience a boom in the next decade. The annual growth rate of the infrastructure construction market will be 7-8%27. In 2025, investment in the creation of Asian infrastructure will reach $5.3 trillion, accounting for 60% of investment in the development of the global infrastructure construction market. Moreover, 50% of investments in the development of this market ($2.65 trillion) will be invested by China28, since neither the World Bank nor the Asian Development Bank can provide adequate financial assistance to the countries of these regions, concentrating their efforts on smaller-scale investments in low-income countries.


1 China's high-tech exports face trade barriers -http://en.people.en/business/n/2015/0130/c90778 - 8843311 -2 .html

2 China pledges 40 bin USD for Silk Road Fund -http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014 - 1 l/08/c_ 133774993_2.htm

3 SCO urged to cut trade barriers URL -http://english.ce.cn/main/latest/201412/16Д20141216 4127782.shtml

4 "New milestone" for China-EU partnership seen -http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/ 2014xivisiteu/2014 - 03/3 l/content_l 7390846.htm

Xin Dingding. 5 Wheels turning to create New Silk Road -http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011 - 04/15/content J 2334699.htm

6 Silk Road perspective of an old "China hand" -http://en.people.en/business/n/2015/0323/c90778" 8867157 - 3.html

7 Pak-China leaders focusing on economic ties (Embassy of Pakistan) - http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2013 - 03/29/content_16357525.htm

8 China, India agree to cooperate in railway sector -http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014 - 09/18/content_18623294.htm

Yu Lintao. 9 Subcontinent Connections. China and its South Asian neighbors boost cooperation levels -http://www.bjreview.com.cn/print/txt/2014 - 09/25/content_641859_3.htm

Chenjipeng, Xia Fan 10 (Xinhua). News Analysis: ASEAN leaders eye community building beyond 2015 http://english.people.com.en/n/2014/l 1l2/c90777 - 8807761.html

11 ASEAN welcomes China's new Maritime Silk Road initiatives - http://en.ce.cn/main/latest/ 201408/16/ t20140816 3367294.shtml

12 Li urges further cooperation within East Asia -http://www.chin а.о rg.cn/world/20 14 - 11/1 4/ content_34045771.htm

13 AIIB good for region, good for the world -http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014 - 11/04/content_l 8863789.htm

14 AIIB assets will be 2/3 of the size of AVR assets and 2/5 of WB assets.

15 AIIB will be a complement to, not a competitor to, the ADB and the World Bank - Chinese Finance Minister - http://russian.chma. org.cn/exclusive/txt/20l5 - 03/2l/content_35120020.htm

Cai Xiao, Zhao Yinan. 16 More talks 'needed on highspeed rail link' between Xinjiang, Europe http://english.people.com.en/n/2614/0705/С.90882 - 8751312.html

17 New momentum over China-Singapore economic corridor - http://www.china.org.cn/ business/2014 - 09/1 7/content_33542423.htm

18 China, ASEAN discuss new Maritime Silk Road -http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/regional/2014 - 09/16/con-tent 18609325 _2.htm

19 Cambodia Presents 5 Rails Projects to 8th Pan-beibu Gulf (PBG) Economic Cooperation Forum http://www.akp.gov.kh/?p=45471

20 Maritime Silk Road strategy not a political tool -http://www.china.org.cn/business/2015 - 03/29/content_ 35186192.htm

Guo Anfei, Ни Yongqi. 21 Railway line heralds new Trading dawn - http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/ 90778/8171562 .htm]

Terekhova A. 22 Hong Kong discusses the division of Russia. Development of the Far East economy - http://www.ng. ru/economics/2014 - 10 - 29/4_china.html

23 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank opens up new opportunities for cooperation between China and Russia - http://russian.people.com.cn/ n/2015/0331/c95181 - 8871873.html

24 Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli's speech at China-ASEAN Expo - http://usa.chinadaily.com. en/ehina/2014 - 09/17/ content_18614065_4.htm

Zhou Siyu. 25 Arctic shipping lanes open up. Routes between Asia and Europe to reduce fuel costs and C02 emissions - http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013 - 03/14/ content_16307086.htm

26 Expansion of the port of Zarubino will contribute to the revival of the Northern Sea Route-http: / / russian. china. org.cn/business/txt/2014 - 10/13/content_33751106.htm

27 Asia's infrastructure market close to $5.3t by 2025 -http://en.ce.cn/main/latest/2014ll/13/t20l41H3_389 6905.shtml

28 Asia infrastructure boom boon for China -http://en.ce.cn/main/latest/201411/17/t20141117_ 3918646.shtml


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