Keywords: China, scientific conference, Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, results of the 12th five-year plan, Xiaokang Society, 4th session of the National People's Congress

The Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the annual scientific conference of the Center for Socio-Economic Research of China(CEC) IDV RAS, dedicated this year to the topic "Results of the 12th five-year plan (2011-1015) and prospects for the development of the Chinese economy until 2020".

In the program report "Plans for the 13th Five-year Plan (2016-2020) and the results of the 12th Five-year Plan: How to build the Xiaokang Society by 2020 (based on the materials of the 4th session of the NPC of the 12th convocation)", Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly of the People's Republic of China. Professor L. V. Ostrovsky, Director of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Central Economic Commission of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, pointed out that, despite a certain decrease in the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) During the 12th five-year plan, the country has achieved remarkable results in the economy, social sphere and science.

In 2015, the GDP growth rate was 6.9%, and according to this indicator, China ranked 1st in the world. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 6,5-7% in 2016, and the average indicator for the period up to 2020 is at least 6,5%. In the 12th five-year plan, the standard of living of the population, in particular, per capita income, and the average salary of urban and rural residents, has increased particularly significantly.

By 2020, China is expected to double its total GDP and GDP per capita as compared to 2010. The goal is to build the Xiaokang (small Prosperity) society in China by 2020. To achieve this goal, indicative indicators of the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) are proposed. The previous growth drivers of the Chinese economy, such as large-scale investments in fixed production assets and infrastructure, huge exports and attracting a mass of low-skilled labor, have exhausted themselves, and the country will look for new reserves of economic growth. The management proposed such a source of economic growth as the expansion of the domestic market due to the growth of the purchasing power of the population, the expansion of supply from the service sector and the development of environmentally friendly industries.

To solve the problem of building a Xiaocang society by 2020, a decision was made to combat poverty. For the first time in the history of China and developing countries in general, the goal is to completely eliminate rural poverty by 2020, raise the standard of living above the poverty line of 70 million people and "lift" 529 "poor" rural counties out of poverty. One of the ways to solve the problem of poverty is through financial policies and services for poor peasants, who need to provide soft loans for business development. Another measure is to increase the level of education of rural residents through the development of a network of free vocational technical education.

The first thematic block - "General problems" with the report "The place of social problems in the program of normalization of economic development of the People's Republic of China in the 13th five-year plan" was opened by Doctor of Economics, Professor E. P. Pivovarova (IDV RAS). She noted that at the 4th session of the NPC of the 12th convocation, the Chinese leadership identified the following areas of development that were recognized as successful by the results of the 12th five-year plan: consumption has become the main engine of economic growth; the standard of living of the people has significantly increased; the growth of incomes of the population has exceeded the growth of the economy; the difference in incomes of urban and rural populations has continued to shrink the number of people employed in cities and towns has increased by more than 64 million; the number of low-income rural population has decreased by 14.42 million; the degree of equity in education has significantly increased, its quality has significantly improved; the entire population has been covered by basic health insurance; the participation rate in basic old-age insurance has exceeded 80%. The main objectives of the new stage of economic reform in the PRC are to reform the fiscal system, the income distribution system, and a decisive movement towards social justice.

Judging by the materials of the "Main Provisions of the 13th five-Year Program of national economic and social development", the difficulties for fully building a" middle-income " society by 2020 will be much greater than initially expected.

To solve this problem, the following is provided::

focus efforts aimed at improving the lives of the people; encourage the implementation of targeted measures for intensive poverty eradication; strengthen key social security links; provide state assistance for the employment of low-income individuals and reduced staff; improve the system of minimum social guarantees; increase unemployment benefits and subsistence allowances.

In her report "New trends in the demographic development of the People's Republic of China (based on the results of the 5th Plenum of the CPC Central Committee)", Candidate of Economic Sciences E. S. Bazhenova drew attention to the change in the state policy, which has been aimed at limiting the birth rate for more than three decades. The "one-child family" policy has brought results, such as slowing population growth and reducing demographic pressure on the economy. As a result, China's share of the world's population has fallen from 22.1% in 1982 to 19.5% today, and will drop to less than 15% by 2050. However, in the face of new challenges associated with the aging of the population (in 2014, the share of people over 60 in the country's population exceeded 15%, and by 2050 it will reach 500 million people) and the decline in the number of economically active people (since 2012, this figure has decreased by 2-4 million people annually), this multi-year course is undergoing adjustments.

In order to compensate for the negative demographic processes and ensure the long-term sustainable development of the Chinese nation, the 5th plenum of the CPC Central Committee in October 2015 announced the gradual transition to the "two-child family" policy and the creation of an insurance pension system that covers all residents.

Candidate of Geographical Sciences I. G. Chubarov (IDV RAS) made a report on "Results of the state policy in the field of urbanization following the results of the 12th five-year plan and prospects until 2020". According to the author, the completed five-year plan can be considered a turning point in the field of urbanization in China. First,during this period, the country has consistently passed 2 landmark milestones of 50% of urban residents in 2011 and 54% (the global average) in 2014, in other words, the country entered the five-year plan still rural, but has already left the city, and above the global average. At the same time, the growth of the urbanization rate significantly exceeded the planned parameters and amounted to 56% at the end of 2015 against the expected 51.5%. Secondly, over the past 5 years, the state's approaches to regulating urban problems have significantly changed, primarily the problems of rural-urban migration.

At the beginning of 2014, the "New Type of National Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)" was adopted, which provides for encouraging migration to cities and reducing the gap between migrants and citizens with a residence permit.

In her report "Xi Jinping's Political Economy: Content and Political Context of a new Concept", O. N. Borokh, Ph. D. in Economics (IDV RAS), analyzed the Chinese interpretation of the term "Xi Jinping's political economy", which is popular in the Chinese media, and revealed the connection of this concept with the development of an updated concept of reforms. At the end of 2015, a new direction of economic transformation was put forward, designated as "supply-side structural reform", which includes reduction of excess production capacity, reduction of inventory (including unrealized residential real estate), debt restructuring and cost reduction. In early 2016, the term "supply-side structural reform "was included by Chinese commentators in the list of" eight key words "describing"Xi Jinping's political economy." These keywords include: "people in the spotlight", building a "comprehensive small welfare society", "basic economic system", "new development concepts", "two hands-market and government", "new normality", "supply-side reform" and "open economy".

In her report "Financial Reform - a key link in the 12th Five-year Plan", Doctor of Economics L. V. Novoselova (IDV RAS) analyzed the process of comprehensive transformation of the financial sector of the PRC during the 12th five-year plan. The most significant areas of transformation aimed at strengthening the role of market relations in the distribution and use of resources were:

- liberalization of bank interest rates, under which the National Bank of China expanded the ability of banks to vary the upper and lower limits of interest rates on deposits and loans;

- internationalization of the yuan, during which its share in world trade reached 3%;

- improvement of the budget process, which resulted in the first attempt to combine four different components of public finances within the integrated national income and expenditure fund;

- comprehensive tax reform, including the transition from production to consumer type of VAT, the development of property and expansion of excise taxation, the reform of the natural resources tax, and the improvement of income taxation.

Candidate of Economic Sciences I. V. Vakhrushin (IDV RAS) in his report "Main trends and results of the development of the Chinese stock market in the 12th five-year plan" emphasized that the results of the development of the Chinese stock market in the 12th five-year plan are extremely contradictory. The crisis that broke out on the stock exchanges of the PRC in the summer of 2015, and its consequences, attracted close attention in the world.

the second wave in January 2016. The development factors of the crisis are largely similar to the situation in 2008-this is, first of all, the" overheating "of the market and the formation of a" bubble " as a result of the rapid growth of speculative transactions on the part of retail investors. In the year before the crisis, the key index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange grew by 150%, and retail investors accounted for up to 90% of the exchange's turnover.

However, there are also new factors, the most significant of which are margin transactions (leverage trading) that were allowed in 2012 and have grown many times over the past two years. A number of decisions of the Chinese Securities Committee in 2014-2015 aimed at stimulating the market made a significant contribution to the formation of the "bubble", in particular, the permission to open up to 20 brokerage accounts per investor. Despite the crisis, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock exchanges took the first two places in the world in terms of the value of stock transactions in 2015 for the first time in history.

Candidate of Economic Sciences M. V. Alexandrova (IDV RAS) in her report "The Chinese exporter and measures of state support for exports" emphasized that a characteristic feature of the modern Chinese economy is its dependence on the external market. In terms of exports, the PRC ranks 1st in the world, it provides 80% of the state's foreign exchange income, and about 20 million people are employed in export industries. 20% of gross industrial and agricultural output is exported to the foreign market.

Attaching great importance to the development of the country's export potential, the Chinese leadership has developed a fairly effective mechanism of state support for national exporters, which in its current form consists of 3 main instruments: credit support, insurance coverage and tax preferences. While supporting national exporters, the PRC is actively pursuing a policy of further liberalizing the conditions for" going abroad " of Chinese investment capital.

In the report of T. G. Terentyeva (IDV RAS) "Results of the development of the Chinese strategy of "going abroad" for the years of the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015)", it was noted that during the years of the 12th five-year plan, Chinese direct investment abroad continued to grow, and during this period, for the first time, the $100 billion threshold was exceeded. Although there have been no global changes in the structure of capital outflows, we can state that a new stage has begun, which is characterized by a shift in emphasis towards high-quality transactions with an increase in their number in industries with higher added value.

Candidate of Law V. I. Balakin (IDV RAS) in his report on "China's strategy for the Trans-Pacific Partnership" noted that in recent years China has managed to create a sphere of its economic dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and thereby call into question the leadership of the United States in the region. Since 2008, at the initiative of the United States, the process of creating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been underway, which is designed to respond to the "Chinese threat". Capitalizing on long-standing concerns in Japan, Vietnam, and India about growing Chinese dominance, Washington has set about forging a broad anti-China alliance.

Of particular interest is Vietnam's accession to the TPP, which, thanks to this, plans to gain a foothold in the North American textile market. The intensity of the competition for Vietnam between China and the United States has recently been growing, and the outcome so far looks unpredictable. Russia could become a "third power" in the region by offering the East Asian community its vision of the process of establishing a regional economic space. To do this, it is necessary to strengthen the integration of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation into the Asia-Pacific region.

Candidate of Economic Sciences V. N. Kovalenko (PJSC "Doncombank") In his report titled "The Prospect of Internationalization of the renminbi in the New Geopolitical Environment," he noted that China has been actively internationalizing the renminbi since 2009. This process began in the context of the global financial crisis, when reform of the global financial system was considered as a key measure to overcome it, based on increasing the role of developing countries in global financial governance structures, as well as the introduction of a new world reserve currency in addition to the US dollar. This scenario did not materialize. Instead, in 2011-2015, the global status quo was scrapped, as a result of which, against the background of the growing conflict potential in the world, China and the United States began to force the implementation of their own mutually exclusive geopolitical projects.

Candidate A. N. Vdovin (IDV RAS) in his report "The main problems of development of foreign banks in China during the 12th five-year plan and trends in their development until 2020" noted that the most significant problems in the development of foreign banks in China are excessive regulation and supervision. There are still a number of fundamental restrictions on conducting core business, explicit (quota) and implicit restrictive measures, problems of maintaining liquidity, and the constraining effect of the insufficient level of development and liberalization of the Chinese financial sector. Foreign banks ' assets and market shares in the Chinese financial system are still insignificant.

According to the speaker, the most promising areas of development of foreign banks in China in the period up to 2020 are:

in the "traditional" areas for them, gradually reducing financial dependence on parent companies (banks) abroad, expanding work with debt instruments and financial products, using international branch networks of their parent companies to further expand the service of foreign companies operating in the PRC, deepening the provision of yuan services, participating in pilot projects within the framework of the financial system of the country. liberalization.

V. L. Svedentsov (Russian Institute for Strategic Studies) in his report on " Integration processes in Greater Eurasia: new challenges and opportunities amid the global economic crisis " noted that one of the main characteristics of the modern world economy is increased instability and frequent crises of global and regional scales. International integration associations that are more flexible than before are becoming increasingly relevant. In Eurasia, this led to the emergence of projects of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia) and the Silk Road Economic Belt (China). Strengthening the regional link in Eurasia is necessary because the increased demand from domestic markets will help reduce the adverse impact of external shocks. The US response initiatives-the Transatlantic and Trans-Pacific Partnerships-disrupt or hinder objective integration processes in Eurasia.

According to the speaker, the basis of Eurasian integration is the modernization of transport infrastructure. Within the framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt, three continental routes from China to Europe are considered: northern (through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus), central (through the countries of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus region to Turkey and the Mediterranean) and southern (through the countries of Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean).

Xing Yuanyuan, an intern at the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Academy of Social Sciences, China), made a presentation on "The evolution of cooperation in the East Asian region and China's response in terms of integration, Economy and security". The strengthening of China and the growing processes of economic integration have led to a change in the previously existing situation in the region. The United States seeks to weaken China's economic growth and undermine the country's national security foundations. China should develop cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries to its advantage and help create a strategically favorable external environment in the areas of economy and security.

Graduate student Jia Song (IDV RAS) in his report "Shadow Banking in China" noted that the scale of shadow banking in China can be compared with the official banking system. The speaker outlined the key characteristics of Chinese shadow banking, which, in addition to legal credit institutions, also includes underground criminal organizations. Currently, the Chinese economy is characterized by a high dependence on shadow banking, resulting in the formation of "bubbles" in the stock market and the real estate market.

The second thematic block - "Industry and regional problems" was opened with a report on "The Military-industrial complex of the People's Republic of China in the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015)" by K. polit.N. P. B. Kamennov (IDV RAS). He noted that the development of the military-industrial complex (MIC) over the past five years has been carried out in accordance with the program of modernization of the national defense and armed forces of China adopted in 2006. Its strategic goal is to create by 2050 an armed force capable of successfully operating in wars using information technology. The implementation of military equipment production programs in all sectors of the military-industrial complex continued, and the army received a number of new models of military equipment of its own design. The military-industrial complex took an active part in the country's economic construction, producing various, including high-tech products for the civilian sector of the economy.

PhD A.V. Afanasyeva (IDV RAS) in her report "Innovative cross-section of the Chinese economy in the 12th five-year plan" noted the significant progress of the PRC in the field of scientific and technical innovations. Two out of 13 innovative mega-projects were successfully completed, namely the creation of the C919 large-body passenger aircraft and the world's largest 4th-generation mobile communication networks. The creation of a 3rd-generation nuclear reactor, as well as manned space exploration and lunar sounding programs, has made significant progress. Such projects as water pollution control, cultivation of new species of genetically modified living organisms, development of new medicines, high-resolution Earth observation systems, etc. are being successfully developed.

Investment in computer and telecommunications technologies per capita has grown by more than 50% in 5 years, the share of people with higher education among all employed has grown to 19%, and the share of R & D enterprises has grown to 17%. At the same time, the share of R & D contributions in budget expenditures is about 3.5%, which is far from the 5.2% planned for the end of the five-year plan, and the share of R & D expenditures in the country's GDP, despite the growth in value terms, is also lower than planned (2.07% instead of 2.28%).

A.V. Pikover (IDV RAS) made a report on "The state of the information industry in China and its development trends". It was noted that this industry was seriously affected.

affected by the decline in exports and largely reoriented to the domestic market. Information networks have developed rapidly: the number of Internet users has reached 688 million, or 50% of the total population. At the same time, statistics show a decrease in the growth rate of the Internet, the growth of users shifted to rural areas and mobile devices.

Ph. D. in Economics Z. A. Muromtseva (IDV RAS) in her report "State Enterprises of the People's Republic of China (2010-2020): features and prospects of reform" noted that the reform of state-owned enterprises has been carried out for more than three and a half decades, but only its 4th stage (since 2004) is regarded as a "turning point". This stage, referred to as "restructuring the management of state assets and improving the modern system of enterprises", is aimed at expanding public-private partnership, improving public management of state capital and increasing the share of deductions from income.

In the report of Candidate of Economic Sciences N. N. Koledenkova (IDV RAS) "Development of China's ferrous metallurgy in the years of the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) and prospects until 2020", it was noted that the problems of the development of China's ferrous metallurgy as a strategically important industry are very significant for the development of the country as a whole. As a result of the 12th five-year plan, China has strengthened its leadership in the world in terms of steel production: in 2015, its share reached 49.5% of the world level. Steel production per capita also increased. The increase in the volume of ferrous metal production in the 12th five-year plan was caused by the increased needs of the country's economic development, primarily due to the active growth of investment in metal-intensive industries.

The volume of investment in metallurgical production increased 1.7 times compared to the 11th five-year plan. There has been a noticeable increase in the level of production, but it is still low in comparison with developed countries.

Ph. D. in Economics V. V. Chuvankova (IDV RAS) in her report "Private and individual entrepreneurship in China: results of the 12th five-year plan and development prospects until 2020" stressed that in the last five years in China, special importance is attached to supporting small and medium-sized businesses with an emphasis on the development of small and microenterprises (MMPs). During this period, the activity of these structures sharply intensified, their economic potential increased in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters, and the scope and geography of production interests expanded. The emphasis on the development of small businesses is caused by the problem of ensuring self-employment of the population in the context of a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy.

Candidate of Economic Sciences V. V. Velichko (North-Eastern Pedagogical University, China) made a report "Chinese studies of regional Economy: main directions and some results". The author noted the increasing efforts of Chinese universities and academic circles in the field of scientific and expert support for the country's regional policy. The main achievements and results of these studies are actively used by national and regional bodies responsible for macroeconomic and regional governance. Among the main priorities of the 13th five-year plan in terms of regional policy are the following: to promote coordinated regional development; to deepen the implementation of the general strategy for regional development; to accelerate the construction of functional-thematic regions and the development of poverty eradication areas.

Ph. D. T. V. Lazareva (IDV RAS) in her report "National districts in the light of the implementation of the 12th five-Year Plan (2011-2015)" noted that the development of the economy and social sphere of national districts during the 12th five-year plan was carried out in such main areas as state subsidies, investment in infrastructure construction environmental protection, development of the road and railway network, construction of airports, development of foreign economic relations between national regions and border regions, improvement of the welfare of the local population.

Dr. L. D. Boni (IDV RAS), in her report "Structural reforms in the Chinese agricultural supply system", said that the reform is aimed at solving structural contradictions and imbalances existing in the agricultural supply system, primarily in the structure of the country's food balance, and covers its main links. The concept of the reform- "market demand should determine changes in production and supply of products" - requires a review and adjustment of the policy of agricultural support, which for 12 years stimulated the growth of food production and incomes of peasants, especially in terms of subsidies to grain farmers and the policy of minimum purchase prices for grain.

The main directions of the reform are the creation of a new pricing mechanism, adjustment of the structure of production, import, inventory and reserves based on market demand. The main problem of the reform is the need to maintain a balance between the interests of rural producers and improving the supply efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture, ensuring food security of the country.

Candidate of Economic Sciences L. A. Volkova (IDV RAS) in her speech on the topic "Adjustments of economic policy in rural areas in the 12th five-year plan" noted that the new, " normal state of the economy is still developing."-

mici " involves improving the quality of economic growth. The most important way to achieve this in the field of agriculture is to regulate land relations in order to increase production efficiency. During the 12th five-year plan, there was a significant increase in investment in the agricultural sector, the level of mechanization and the coefficient of scientific and technical contribution to economic growth are increasing. The implementation of crop rotation, cultivation of forage crops was partially started, and the scale of restoration of forests and swamps on previously plowed lands increased. China's lease of arable land abroad has become a new trend.

Candidate of Economic Sciences S. L. Sazonov (IDV RAS) in his report "China's high-speed railways have overtaken the whole world" gave the latest data on the total length of the high-speed railway network in 21210 km, which is about 60% of the world network. The construction of high-speed rail lines is part of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy and is aimed primarily at developing the country's border and interior regions and leveling the development levels of different parts of the country, as well as maintaining demand in industries with threatened overproduction (concrete, steel, etc.). In addition, China is striving to expand the network high-speed rail routes beyond their borders, primarily to the ASEAN countries. The country is already the largest foreign trade partner of the ASEAN countries and the main donor of regional infrastructure development.

At the sub-regional level, major highways will be built with the help of Chinese investments in Southeast Asian countries. Subsequently, they will connect to major regional ports, which will increase the flow of export cargo from China and Southeast Asian countries to the countries of ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa. The joint railway network of China and Southeast Asian countries, which is being built with the financial assistance of China, and the latitudinal Pan - Asian high - speed railway (China - Laos - Vietnam - Cambodia - Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore) will become the starting point of the second Eurasian transport highway in the future. The creation of such a railway network will serve as a driver of foreign trade for the PRC and provide resources for the development of Chinese railway corporations.

Graduate student E. O. Zaklyazminskaya (IDV RAS) in her report "Transport using alternative energy sources - an innovative driver of the Chinese economy" noted that the rapid economic development of China over the past three decades has led to a multiple increase in the consumption of energy resources, which increased the country's dependence on imports of petroleum products (up to 70%) and worsened the environmental situation. In order to improve the situation, the country's leadership in 2011 adopted a program for the development of the automotive industry using alternative sources of electricity until 2020. According to the plan, by 2020, China will account for 30% of all global production of "green" cars (electric vehicles and hybrid cars). In many cities of the country, there are measures to encourage the use of cars on alternative energy sources, for example, a one-time cash subsidy, facilitating the registration of a license plate, establishing a mandatory share for public purchases of motor vehicles, etc.

Candidate of Economic Sciences E. I. Kranina (IDV RAS) made a report on "Building an ecological civilization in China". It was noted that according to the Government's plans, the 13th five-year plan should become a period of more sustainable environmental development. The Government has set a course for a fundamental solution to environmental problems. This requires maintaining a balance between economic development and environmental protection, carrying out legal reform in this area, developing and implementing new environmentally friendly technologies, and ensuring environmental protection of host territories in the process of transferring industry from Primorye to the central parts of the country. The following specific tasks were put forward: to contain the country's energy consumption within 5 billion tons of coal equivalent per year, to implement the strictest environmental protection system in the country's history, to strictly control carbon emissions, to keep promises to reduce harmful emissions and actively participate in solving global environmental problems, and to create a unified national environmental monitoring system in real-time mode.

Closing the scientific conference, the head of the Central Economic Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor A.V. Ostrovsky, emphasized that the 13th five-year plan of socio-economic development of the People's Republic of China proposed a kind of "road map" for building a low-income society by 2020 and outlined the main economic indicators for 2020 - gross domestic product( GDP), GDP per capita, key indicators of the average annual GDP growth rate. The main priorities of the country's development are defined: increasing the living standards of the population, developing the consumer market and moving away from the previous growth engines (foreign trade, large investments in industry and infrastructure), as well as ensuring the necessary balance in the labor market in the long term.

The review was prepared by Candidate of Economic Sciences I. V. VAKHRUSHIN and Candidate of Geographical Sciences I. G. CHUBAROV

Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

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