AS A PATH TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION

A. V. OSTROVSKY

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Deputy Head of the Department. Director of the Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: China, Silk Road Economic Belt, Russia, Eurasian Economic Union

In autumn 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping, at a meeting with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced the launch of the Silk Road Economic Belt project*, which consists of two parts : a land belt through Kazakhstan and Russia to European countries and a sea belt through Southeast Asia. These two projects were later referred to as the Belt and Road Initiative.

These projects were treated differently in the world. Some countries and experts reacted to them

* The Great Silk Road-a caravan road built in the 2nd century BC, connecting East Asia with the Mediterranean. First of all, it was used for the export of silk from China, which is why its name is associated (editor's note).

skeptical, considering them as dreams about the future world order, which, however, at present, due to political, economic and social contradictions between countries, have little chance of realizing them. Another part of countries and experts reacted to them with approval, considering the "Silk Road Economic Belt" not only as an opportunity to develop more active cooperation between China, European countries and adjacent territories, including Russia, but also as a way to solve global political and economic problems. Special attention was drawn to the fact that China acts not only as the organizer of the project, but also as its main financial sponsor through the newly created Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund.

This project has already been discussed at many international conferences, both in China and abroad. At the international level, ways to implement this idea have already been considered at two forums - in Istanbul in December 2014 and in Madrid in October 2015. Li Wei, head of the State Council Development Institute, a think tank of the Chinese government, said at the forum in Madrid: "China's Silk Road Economic Belt initiative will play a crucial role in improving the global economic situation in the world, connecting global markets and shaping a new world order for economic development."¹. In his opinion, through cooperation and expanding market competition, countries will be able to realize their potential more effectively, make better use of their comparative advantages, and optimize their economic structure.

Russia joined the discussion and participation in this project a little later. At the beginning of 2015, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Putin announced the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union( EAEU), which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Initially, it was supposed to create, among other things, a free trade zone of the EAEU with China, but in May 2015, by the decision of the governing structures of the EAEU and China, the Russian Federation and the PRC issued a joint statement on cooperation in linking the construction of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB). It stated that both sides "will make concerted efforts to mutually link the processes of building the EAEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt" and "establish joint work in bilateral and multilateral formats, primarily on the SCO platform" ².

The SREB project proposed by China has significant advantages over the EAEU project due to its more ancient foundations (over 2100 years of history). Since the 2nd century BC, the Silk Road Project (Zhang Qian's mission)* * has played an important role in the development of China's relations with Western countries. Later, China in ancient times (during the Han and Tang dynasties) conducted a brisk trade with the countries of Europe, Africa and South and Southeast Asia through Central and Western Asia. Since most of the export goods from China were more or less related to silk, which in those years was produced only in China and was the most important import product for Western countries, the silk route from China to Europe was called the "Silk Road" (Sichouzhilu) by historians. Until the Middle Ages, this trade route was very popular, but from the XIV-XV centuries (in the period after the Yuan Dynasty), due to new geographical discoveries, this route was gradually forgotten.

Both projects-the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union-combine similar cultural norms that do not contradict each other, the SREB project unites more than 3 billion people, and the EAEU project-about 200 million people. A joint document issued by the State Development and Reform Committee and the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China in March 2015 notes::

* "Conjugation "means that, on the one hand, the Russian Side will support the construction of the" Silk Road Economic Belt " and is ready to work closely with the Chinese Side in promoting this initiative. On the other hand, the PRC will support Russia's active efforts to promote integration processes within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and will begin negotiations on concluding an agreement on trade and economic cooperation with it.

* * Zhang Qian is a Chinese diplomat. In 138 BC, on the instructions of Emperor Wu Di, Zhang Qian traveled to Central Asia on a diplomatic mission. He was the first to bring to China information about Central Asia, the Tien Shan and Pamir mountain systems, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers. He opened a road from China to the West, called the "Great Silk Road". Chinese historians associate his name with the appearance of alfalfa, grapes, pomegranates, cucumbers, walnuts and fig trees in China.

"One Belt, One Road" pass through the territory of Asia, Europe and Africa. At one end are the active economies of East Asia, at the other end are the developed economies of Europe, and between them lie vast territories of states with huge potential for economic development. " ³

For China, the implementation of the SREB project provides an opportunity to accelerate the development of its western part - the provinces of Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and two autonomous regions-Ningxia Hui and Xinjiang Uygur, which lag behind the coastal regions of the country in terms of socio-economic development. This project will contribute to a more even development of resources and production in China, while maintaining the existing achievements.

The construction of the SREB has become part of the social and economic development plan of the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) being developed in China, which is to be announced at the NPC session in March 2016.

The project is expected to be implemented within 30 years. In the course of its implementation, "seven belts" should be created - transport, energy, trade, information, scientific and technical, agricultural and tourist.

Russia's decision to participate in the SREB strategy was announced in March 2015 by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov during the Asian Economic Forum: "The free movement of goods and capital within the EAEU brings the economies of Europe and Asia closer together, which echoes the SREB initiative put forward by the Chinese leadership. We in the Russian Federation are confident that joint work on the development of the EAEU and SREB will create additional opportunities for the development of the countries of the Eurasian Union and China. " ⁴

On the territory of the EAEU countries - Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus-the economy will also develop at an accelerated pace in the zone of development of transport infrastructure (roads and railways) along the Druzhba (Dostyk) - Almaty-Orenburg - Kazan - Moscow-Minsk route, modeled on the zones of the Trans-Siberian Railway (Transsib) and the Chinese Eastern Railway (CER) in late XIX-early XX centuries. As the experience of the development of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the CER shows, immediately after the construction of long-distance railway lines with access to the sea, their rapid development began in the territories adjacent to the railway. In particular, this was the beginning of the development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East on the territory of Russia, as well as the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning on the territory of the PRC.

Combining the two large-scale projects will allow, on the one hand, for Russia and other EAEU members to create a huge transit zone for cargo from Europe to Asia, and expand sales markets for their products both in China and other Asian countries. On the other hand, China will have more opportunities to expand its markets for manufactured products and obtain the raw materials needed for the economy.

The integration of the two projects - the EAEU and the SREB-will also significantly expand trade and economic cooperation between the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and give an impetus not only to the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic ties, but also to ensure closer trade and economic cooperation between the SCO countries. Along the northern route, the SREB passes through the territories of the three main SCO countries-Russia, China and Kazakhstan. As the project progresses, the SREB route will run from China through Central and West Asia to the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea. This will make it possible to involve not only other SCO countries-Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan-but also a number of neighboring countries in Central and West Asia, because of the prospects for their economic benefits from mutually beneficial cooperation.

The Chinese side is very active in promoting its initiative to develop the Silk Road Economic Belt. In August 2015, international conferences with a large number of participants were held every few days in two cities of China - Urumqi and Beijing. The conference in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), was devoted not only to discussing the idea of this initiative, but also to exploring the specific possibilities of the territory that will become the main transit point for the implementation of this project. During this conference, the participants received information about some of the results already achieved in the PRC on the project implementation path, and were introduced to the socio-economic achievements of the XUAR, which is a key link in the implementation of the SREB project. On the example of socio-economic development of Xinjiang and a number of projects in priority sectors in this territory, it became clear that-

but, at the expense of which China plans to implement the "Silk Road Economic Belt" project and how to develop the "seven belts" of this project.

For the participants of the conference, including the author of this article, trips were organized to Sanji (Changji), the capital of the Changji-Hui Autonomous Region, Turfan and Urumqi enterprises, which will take an active part in the implementation of this project. During the guided tours, we were given the opportunity to get acquainted with the world's largest transformer company (TVEA) (manufacturing three types of high - tech products-solar panels, aluminum resistors and transformers), visit the national park of the latest agricultural technologies, the cultural museum and get acquainted with the modern cultural life of Donggang (Hui). Thus, the participants of the international conference got an idea of how the idea of creating energy and agricultural corridors for the SREB development will be implemented in Xinjiang.

The trip to Turfan included more than just exploring the traditional cultural treasures of the Uyghur people: the ruins of the ancient city of Jiaohe (2nd century BC), the museum of kyariz (underground wells in the oases of Xinjiang), the city Museum of Culture and the Grape Valley. At the same time, on the way to Turfan, we were given the opportunity to get acquainted with the operation of the Dabancheng wind power plant, which is located 30 km from Urumqi. The Turfan - Urumqi corridor is a key link in the implementation of the idea of the China-Central Asia energy and tourism corridor.

In the capital of XUAR itself, Urumqi, the conference participants were able to get acquainted with the Toutunhe technical and economic development zone in one of the city's districts, which should provide an information and scientific and technical corridor for the Silk Road Economic Belt. A visit to Jinfeng, China's largest wind turbine manufacturer, gave an insight into the development prospects of the energy and information corridors. In turn, familiarization in Urumqi with the activities of the innovative company "Ema", which is engaged in various business projects around the world, and the high-speed railway (VSZHD)under construction Beijing-Urumqi, showed how well China is already ready to develop trade, transport and information corridors for the implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative.

A welcome letter from Yu Zhengsheng, a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, was read out to the conference participants at the plenary session, which noted that "throughout history, Xinjiang has been the most important link of the Silk Road." The XUAR leadership, in turn, noted three main advantages of the SREB project: 1) the transport corridor between China and Europe; 2) the richness of energy resources in the XUAR; 3) the rich cultural heritage of the XUAR.

As emphasized by Zou Yong, Deputy Chairman of the According to the Head of the Regional Development Department of the State Development and Reform Committee of the People's Republic of China, Xinjiang is seen as a window to Central Asia, Russia and Europe. Already, the rate of economic development of the XUAR region is higher than the average for China. In his opinion, the main obstacle to the development of foreign trade in the Xinjiang Region is the poor state of infrastructure. The SREB project will turn Xinjiang into a transit hub for China to develop trade and economic ties with the outside world - Central and South Asia and Europe.

An SREB can have three main routes:: 1) northern (via Moscow); 2) middle (via Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi); 3) southern (via Iran). Some in Russia, in particular, experts of the Higher School of Economics (S. Karaganov and others) believe that the middle and southern routes are very expensive, and the project should only pass through Russia. Therefore, Russia can only wait for China to take the initiative and offer it serious investments for the implementation of the northern option.

However, it seems to us that such views are noticeably divorced not only from Chinese, but also from world realities. As it turned out, the middle route (across the Caspian Sea) via the Atasu - Baku ferry is already being implemented, and the first trains along the transport corridor have already arrived in Istanbul. Russia may be late to the SREB project, and Russia's vast transit territory between China and Europe may be sidelined after the implementation of China's Silk Road Economic Belt initiative. As shown by the speeches of a number of participants of international conferences on this topic in China and abroad, this project is of interest not only to the participating countries, but also to states that are geographically very far from the three variants of the Silk Road route.

The Silk Road Economic Belt is not only a transit corridor, but also one that will allow developing the economy of the region-XUAR and other provinces, as well as the autonomous regions of the Northwest (Ningxia-Hui Autonomous Region, Shaanxi, Gansu and Qinghai). For Northwestern China, the Silk Road is important, among other things, because it will allow the most efficient use of the resources available on its territory. However, a crucial role in the implementation of this initiative belongs to Xinjiang, which faces two main tasks - the development of the XUAR and the development of the SREB. Finally, in the new historical conditions, the SREB is also becoming a bridge of rapprochement between the peoples of many countries.

However, it should be noted that there are huge risks in the implementation of this initiative, as stated at two international conferences in Beijing in August and October 2015. Director of the China Border Territories Institute Li Guoqiang, who presented an analysis of various risks for the SREB and the Maritime Silk Road. They were assigned five types of risks: 1) political (threats from the Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic Partnership), threats from the United States in the Strait of Malacca); 2) political and economic instability in many countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, etc.); 3) traditional and non-traditional security threats; 4) financial risks (global currency and securities markets securities); 5) economic risks (the state of the economies of the SREB countries and the "Sea Silk Road").

China attaches great importance to the development of two projects - the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road. Both projects are of great strategic importance for China not only in terms of enhancing relations with various countries of the world, but also for the development of both border territories and territories located in the coastal and central regions of the country.

When forming the SREB, it will be necessary to agree on the ways of economic development of the countries participating in the project, in order to develop a joint strategy of action, taking into account their economic, political and legal practices. Plans for the creation, development and improvement of transit and transport infrastructure on the territory of the SREB, which will be based on the high-speed railway (HSR)line for Russia, are considered Beijing-Moscow. The first part of the Moscow - Kazan VSZHD should be completed before the summer of 2018-the start of the FIFA World Cup in Russia, and the Moscow-Beijing VSZHD project is expected to be completed by 2030.

The next stage of linking the two projects is to reduce and then eliminate trade and investment barriers between SREB participants. This will not only improve the conditions for unlocking the trade and investment potential of the SREB member countries, but also accelerate the movement of capital within the emerging economic system, harmonize the currency systems of the participating countries, and switch to the use of the currencies of the SREB member countries, which will gradually lead to the rejection of the use of the dollar in settlements between the SREB member countries.

To link the two SREB and EAEU projects, it will be necessary to maximize the opportunities of new financial structures-the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, established in March 2015, with a capital of $100 billion. and the Silk Road Fund with a capital of $40 billion. The funds included in them will allow us to simultaneously solve several tasks related to the further activation of investment, trade and economic cooperation within the SREB.

Among these tasks, the most important are the creation of modern infrastructure along the Beijing - Almaty - Moscow-Minsk route, the harmonization of the currency of the SREB and EAEU countries, the development of investment cooperation between the EAEU, SCO and SREB member countries, and the expansion of trade volumes both between SREB members and with other partners.

All this will contribute to enhancing international relations not only between the SREB countries, but also between the SREB and SCO member states, as well as with all other countries interested in participating in the SREB program, and linking the two SREB and EAEU programs both in Asia and in the European Union.

¹ See: China Daily. October 30, 2015, p. 12.

² See: Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the PRC on cooperation in linking the construction of the EAEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt, May 8, 2015 / / Economic Belt of the Silk Road, Moscow, Russian Biographical Institute, Institute of Economic Strategies, 2015, p. 22.

³ Ibid., p. 30.

⁴ Cit. by: Remyga V. N., Padalko V. I. China's New Global Strategy-the Silk Road Economic Belt // Economic belt of the Silk Road... p. 66.

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