S. UYANAEV

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Against the background of complex processes that accompany the formation of the system of modern international relations and determine the parameters of structuring the picture of the future world order, expert research devoted to analyzing the underlying trends and predicting the situation for the coming decades can attract the attention of specialists (and often a wider circle of readers) by definition. At the same time, those aspects of the problem that are associated with such a universally recognized factor of recent world development as the objective rise of China often and quite rightly arouse increased interest. However, such research and forecasts become particularly important when their final objectives are closely linked to the prospects for developing a course that would best correspond to the effective provision of future-oriented national interests of the Russian Federation.

Among the works with such a goal setting is the recently published joint monograph by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences M. L. Titarenko and corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences B. N. Kuzyk "China-Russia-2050: a strategy for co-development "(Moscow: Institute of Economic Strategies, 2006, 656 p), in the preparation of which, as the authors note, the most active participation It was attended by employees of the academic teams headed by them-the Institute of the Far East and the Institute of Economic Strategies (INES).

The conceptual leitmotif of the work seems to be outlined by the authors already in the preface, which emphasizes that China and Russia, as strategic partners that solve similar problems in the context of globalization and common challenges," can only develop and deepen good neighborliness, friendship, and strategic interaction "and" confidently move along the path of co-development " (p. 6)..

Before considering the main provisions of the study, it is appropriate to make a reservation that its methodological basis is not traditional. An extraordinary fusion of scientific author's experience made it possible to present a book to the reader, where the actual political and synological analysis was performed according to the methods developed by the INES team of scientists. At the same time, the authors, considering the growing influence of the PRC as one of the key factors in global and regional forecasting, the assessment of which is certainly important for the future of the Russian Federation, put two groups of questions in the center of attention. The first concerns the "driving forces" of the current progress of the PRC and their viability in the future, the second concerns the impact that a successful or, on the contrary, unsuccessful scenario of China's implementation of its tasks objectively aimed at achieving world level can have on the global situation, the fate of other countries, primarily on Russia. Scientists see the search for answers to these questions in the analysisThe nine dimensions that constitute, in their view, "the basis of China's domestic and international stability" and include such categories as governance, territory, natural resources, population, economy, armed forces, foreign policy, culture and religion, and science and education.

First in this list (and, apparently, far from the last in importance), the authors consider the management aspect. The authors analyze it on the basis of a variety of factual material from a quarter of a century of Chinese reforms, and try to show the complexity of polemics within the country on key issues - the degree of state participation in market transformations and the relationship between democracy and authoritarianism in modernization processes. As a result, it is concluded, supported by impressive concrete examples, that strong state and party power plays a crucial role in China's successful progress towards building up its economic potential, and maintaining this factor is a "critical condition" for the country's further peaceful ascent (p. 6, 81).

This conclusion is made taking into account a number of problems that have already arisen ("overheating" of the economy, large - scale corruption, structural imbalances, the gap between regional development, social differentiation, etc.), as well as against the background of a very sensitive topic that will inevitably require its solution-the issue of political reform. The paper presents three possible scenarios for the evolution of the political sphere. According to the authors, the implementation of two of them, which is possible under the pressure of right - wing radical forces in one case and left-wing radical forces in the other, is equally unfavorable

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both for the development of China itself and from the point of view of Russia's interests.

The third scenario, conventionally called centrist, would be possible if the current course is gradually modified and the social base of the current government is further expanded by taking into account the interests of those strata that are still far from the fruits of economic growth. As noted in the paper, there are enough reasons to believe that by the middle of the XXI century, the management model, leaning towards this scenario, will become adequate to the "harmonious society of Xiaokang", which is quite differentiated on the one hand, but devoid of explosive contradictions. It is important to note here that in such a development of events, which not only preserves the country's manageability, but is also predictable and optimal for Russia's interests, China has the right to count on its support. The advantage of analyzing this aspect is a careful consideration of the historical, cultural, ethical, and traditionalist features of Chinese society, as well as the norms and values of Confucian attitudes, which make borrowing Western organizational models not only superfluous, but also counterproductive from the standpoint of stability and manageability (pp. 46-47).

Analyzing the second aspect, which is important for assessing the future development of China - a set of issues related to ensuring the country's territorial integrity, the authors consider it appropriate to address, first of all, the historical background of the problem. In a concise but at the same time succinct form, the paper examines a wide time period - from the moment of the emergence of Chinese statehood to the present day, reveals characteristic trends in the formation of national borders, which in general allows us to perceive this section as a kind of brief outline of the complex history of the formation of the territory of modern China.

The paper draws attention to the fact that until the European occupation of the countries adjacent to China, the borders of its territory were "rather symbolic, to a certain extent conditional in nature and turned out to be clearly defined only where they passed along natural boundaries" (p.152). The need for their formal, contractual establishment arose in connection with the policy of the colonial Powers in the region. It is noteworthy, in the authors 'opinion, that contrary to the prevailing statements, particularly among Chinese scientists, about the" weakness " of the country of that period, China not only successfully defended its territorial integrity during the relevant negotiations, but also put forward its own claims, "firmly insisted on their satisfaction."

In the second half of the XX century. China regained its jurisdiction over a number of previously lost territories (Macao, Hong Kong), and from 1960 to the present day, it has reached agreements with neighboring states on the passage of the border along absolutely most of their common perimeter. Characteristically, while highlighting in this series of events the fact that the legal delimitation of the Russian-Chinese border was fully completed (under the Agreement of October 2004), which goes beyond the scope of bilateral relations, the authors consider it appropriate to point out the emergence of a practical basis for concluding a general Border Agreement between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. After all, we are talking about a document that, in order to avoid any speculation in the future, from an international legal point of view, would completely close the border issue in relations between the two countries. Against the background of the prevailing position of Chinese experts regarding the identity in the Chinese legal interpretation of the categories "agreement" and" contract", this position of the authors seems to be very important.

The process of successful contractual and legal registration of China's borders with neighboring states, although not yet fully completed, leads the authors to the conclusion that the "final", in general, "completion of the formation of its national territory", which, in turn, allows the reader to consider such an assessment as a sign of eliminating the conflict potential in the border area of the country.

At the same time, it is obvious, and this is emphasized in the work, that from the point of view of ensuring China's territorial integrity, reunification with Taiwan remains the most important area of activity in the coming decades. The issues of China's demarcation with a number of neighboring countries in the waters of the East and South China Seas will also be resolved; objectively, the problems of border settlement in the ongoing Sino-Indian negotiations remain difficult for Beijing and New Delhi. In their forecasts in this regard, the authors seem to reasonably refrain from alarmist scenarios, considering that the possibility of military approaches is either excluded or (in the case of Taiwan) rather unlikely (p.151).

In the context of the variety of statistics and special expert material presented in the section on natural resources, it is difficult to disagree with the authors ' opinion that assessing the status and forecasting the future of the PRC in this parameter is one of the most difficult tasks. Having a fairly complete and solid set of minerals in absolute terms, the country lags behind in terms of per capita indicators, and against the background of increasing consumption of raw materials, it is experiencing a growing dependence on imports of certain types of raw materials, primarily oil. According to the authors ' assessment methods, today China occupies an intermediate position between "superpower" and "great power" in terms of natural resources, with the prospect of this status evolving towards the latter (self-sufficiency at the level of 50-80%). Deviations from this assumed vector, both in one direction and in the other, will depend on the extent to which the Chinese leadership will be able to solve a number of difficult tasks, including improving the energy balance structure, energy conservation, and developing new technologies.-

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development of new technologies, diversification of sources of hydrocarbon imports. The problems of optimal overcoming of natural limitations for development, which are associated with such an urgent problem for China as ecology, stand out here.

In any case, in the medium term, the authors predict "China's great interest in cooperation with Russia, which has rich resources of raw materials and energy that China urgently needs" (p. 197). At the same time, it is optimal for Russia to pursue a policy of "conditional support", linking Russian supplies with investments from the PRC, taking into account the interests of the Russian Federation in its market on the part of China. It is noteworthy that in the context of Russian interests related to cooperation with China in the energy sector, the paper draws attention to the possibility of expanding it by connecting India. Thus, we share a very well-founded and fairly widespread view that cooperation between the three countries in the energy sector could become the cornerstone of their strategic partnership, a common set of cooperation between these states in a trilateral format (p. 186).

An extremely important aspect for China is related to the set of measures for population regulation. The authors note that the policy of curbing population growth, launched in the 70s of the last century, aimed at preventing a demographic crisis, was one of the conditions for the success of reforms in recent decades; it had a positive impact on the modernization and development of the country, improving the living standards of families. In this regard, "birth planning remains a long-term task that is crucial for the existence and development of the Chinese nation" (p.229). Under this policy, the country's population should reach 1.4 billion by 2010, 1.5 billion in 10 years, and 1.6 billion by mid - century. human. Easing the regulatory policy is fraught with a rapid population growth beyond these limits, which can seriously slow down the development of the PRC, including creating intractable environmental problems.

At the same time, the implementation of measures to curb population growth, aimed at achieving zero natural growth in 30 years, gives rise to a number of acute socio-demographic problems, the main ones of which are the aging of the population (according to the weighted average forecasts of Chinese scientists-about 350 million people over 65 years of age by the middle of this century), age. The burden on the working-age part of the population will increase, and if the necessary GDP growth rates are maintained, the problem of labor resources will make itself felt in a tough way. Since these factors run counter to the goals of the country's overall recovery as sharply as uncontrolled overpopulation, the Chinese leadership faces a difficult task of finding the optimum, which has extremely difficult solutions.

The authors also draw attention to such a feature of the development of the demographic situation in China as a slightly larger proportion of the male population, which by 2020 will result in a situation where the "excess" of men of marriageable age will amount to 15-18 million people. It is no coincidence that when comparing this perspective with the size of the Russian population beyond the Urals, the paper suggests the possibility of "forming a significant demographic burden on neighboring countries" (p. 263).

Despite the abundance of problems associated with demographic issues, the authors, nevertheless, based on the population size, position China in this indicator as an undisputed superpower of the middle of the century.

A characteristic feature of the section devoted to the analysis of the economic aspect as a condition for the further development of the PRC is the desire to present the picture in all the complexity of its components, to withstand appropriate assessments taking into account a very diverse range of trends and factors. In this connection, the author examines the historical context of the formation of the Chinese economy in recent times, including the factors of tortuous development in the first 30 years of the PRC's existence, analyzes the ambiguous legacy of this period, with which at the turn of the 70s-80s of the last century, the country's leadership began to modernize in its current stages (seven for the period 1978-2005) of formation and evolution of the conceptual foundations of modernization, summing up its intermediate results. By the way, these results show that by 2000, the country had undoubtedly achieved a staggering 6-fold increase in GDP over 20 years, but was ranked 149th in terms of its per capita average (p. 321), while experiencing the need to further solve acute macroeconomic problems (for example, the transition from an extensive to an intensive development modelsocial problems (a huge gap in the situation of cities and villages) and a number of other problems that once again demonstrate the complexity of forecasting attempts that require taking into account a wide range of very contradictory, sometimes, circumstances.

The paper provides a detailed list of both Chinese and foreign scenarios for the development of the Chinese economy in the coming decades, some of which predict that China's GDP will overtake the American one by 2030, while others only talk about the possibility of joining the world's top ten in terms of "level of economic modernization"by the end of the century. The authors themselves seem to be inclined to "moderate" multivariance of the forecast. Under the "sharp rise" scenario, this means maintaining a stable growth rate of 7% per year for 30 years, increasing GDP by 7.6 times, and China's entry into the second place in the world in this indicator. Less optimistic is the "fading" scenario (a decline in growth rates after 2010 to 5-6%, and even lower after 2020); however, more theoretically, options for "stagnation" and even "disruption"are also considered. The authors believe that the main argument in favor of pessimistic scenarios would be the inability to

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The authorities should be able to cope with the aggravation of the internal political situation, which may potentially arise if there is no improvement in the situation of the huge army of the peasantry (p. 353). The trends of creeping "decommunization"have not been removed from the agenda either.

Nevertheless, the authors ' general conclusion is that from the perspective of economic development prospects, China is very likely to represent a neighboring country for Russia in the next two decades, committed to socialist guidelines, and more or less steadily increasing its power, which objectively creates favorable conditions for the development of mutually beneficial cooperation. Other scenarios are much less in line with Russian interests (p. 354).

From the point of view of the development of the cultural sphere, which in recent years has developed its own processes, not devoid of contradictions, the authors predict moderate progress as the most realistic scenario against the background of continued economic growth of the PRC.

In general, the section draws attention to the serious importance of the cultural aspect in ensuring the political stability necessary for the country's recovery. The policy of openness and commercialization of various aspects of life also influenced this sphere, where one of the most difficult features was, in particular, the "conflict of market mechanisms and ideological requests of the state" (p. 411).

The authorities, in an understandable desire to maintain control over such an important area, are trying to resolve these contradictions by separating the propaganda and commercial (entertainment-consumer) hypostases of culture, putting forward, in particular, the concepts of "cultural business" and "cultural industry", respectively.

In the struggle for "manageability" and, at the same time, against "spiritual pollution", often introduced from the outside, great hopes are pinned on modernization, adaptation to the realities of the day of the values of Confucian ethics and morality. At the same time, the use of attributes of traditional moral and ideological systems is conceived both within the country-with an emphasis on the norms of "honesty", "virtue", and from the standpoint of external orientation. It is no coincidence that the article emphasizes that national culture is perceived in the PRC as a tool for preserving national identity in the context of globalization. In this sense, the authors pay particular attention to the integration of the Confucian thesis "unity without unification" into modern Chinese doctrines, which is designed to ideologically support, and most importantly - to "explain" to the outside world the slogan of "peaceful rise" of China, and at the same time to debunk the postulate generated by the West about the "Chinese threat". According to the authors, if extreme nationalist manifestations are avoided in the sphere of ideology of the PRC, stability and economic growth are preserved, "in the coming decades, culturally, China has a chance to reach the level of an influential regional power and start moving towards acquiring certain attributes of a great power" (p.428).

No less important than the areas listed above is the aspect of science and education for the overall progress of the country. In its analysis, the authors draw, in particular, from the world practice of assessing the dynamics of development in this area, according to which the recovery stage is characterized by a combination of two indicators: the amount of funding at the level of at least 1% of GDP and its per capita mark of $ 1,000. and higher. China achieved this combination by 2002, and the noticeable positive dynamics continued. There are also significant achievements - for example, China's significant exports in absolute terms in 2004 consisted of a quarter of new and high-tech products (p. 452). Nevertheless, the gap with the world leaders is still quite noticeable. However, it is this fact that the authors consider to be a factor that gives China a large space for growth-moving along the path of combining attracted technologies from outside with its own developments and saving on technical research. It is also considered important that the state leadership has developed and provided appropriate funding for comprehensive programs, a system of specific measures aimed at innovative and technological breakthrough; its priority areas are identified (including energy, space, information technologies). According to the forecast, by 2030, China's science and technology are expected to reach the level of advanced countries at the beginning of the XXI century. (R & D spending is 2.5% of GDP), and by 2050, when the contribution of science and technology to economic growth reaches 70%, the country will be able to reach the world level in certain sectors (p.488).

Studying the "Armed Forces" component, the authors proceed from the fact that the role of the army in China is determined by general strategic guidelines in the field of security, aimed at ensuring favorable external conditions for the country's development through preventive measures of a political, diplomatic, economic and military nature (p.492). At the same time, the country believes that a number of events (undermining the non-proliferation system, etc.) have now led to an increase in the international importance of the military factor. A special feature of the position of the army in the PRC is also its role as an instrument of internal political stability.

From the point of view of the current state, the work emphasizes that the Chinese army, with all the components, including nuclear ones, of the modern armed forces, nevertheless lags behind in a number of essential parameters (the latest equipment requirements, mobility, command systems) from the most militarily developed countries. On the other hand, as in other areas that are of basic importance for the implementation of the tasks of the country's recovery, China has developed and is currently implementing detailed, time-structured modernization programs for the development of the military complex. Within the framework of such programs, by 2000, the project has been completed

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the first stage (out of the three planned stages) is to create the foundations for transformation.

The main long-term limitation in the implementation of further steps is that the country still has a relative technological lag in general, which is particularly sensitive for the military-industrial complex. There are achievements, as well as high growth rates, in this area, but according to the authoritative expert estimates given by the authors, the probability that China will be able to integrate general successes into tangible results in the military field in the next decade is very problematic (p. 505). Under these conditions, failures in attempts to directly copy the best foreign models make it extremely important for foreign purchases, the development of military-technical cooperation in joint or licensed production with other countries, primarily with Russia and other CIS countries. The" catch-up " development model, the paper says, makes it possible to reduce, but not eliminate, China's military-technical backlog.

Nevertheless, it is concluded that the pace of increasing military spending faster than the overall growth of the economy (in terms of its volume in the coming years, the country may become the second in the world after the United States), as well as the consistent implementation of the second and third stages of the military modernization program, can make the Chinese army the strongest in Asia in terms of quality, and by 2050 - "to reach the advanced level of the armed forces of most developed countries" (p. 520). However, even in this case, the paper notes, "achieving the status of a military power comparable to the United States is problematic."

Finally, in the section on the foreign policy aspect of the development of the PRC, the authors, considering the international course of the Chinese leadership since the formation of the PRC, express the opinion that the lessons of the irrationality of its individual stages are unlikely to have been in vain. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, as at present, the country's foreign policy will remain peaceful, aimed at providing favorable conditions "for solving China's huge internal problems." Its main principles will remain the desire for full independence, non-joining alliances, full equality with partners, and determination to defend sovereignty (pp. 578-579).

Points that are theoretically capable of provoking the accumulation of conflict potential are, first of all, the problem of Taiwan, as well as a number of historical aspects of Sino-Japanese relations and the mentioned subjects related to the remaining issues of territorial demarcation. According to the authors, possible aggravations in these areas will most likely not lead to large-scale military operations.

To these problems may be added the acute issue of lack of energy resources, which can, as noted in the paper, " overturn the entire course of China's successful development." The authors do not assess the degree of probability of such a scenario, but rightly point out the need for Russia, which is objectively interested in cooperation with the PRC, to closely monitor the direction in which the Chinese side will act, firmly defend its positions, thereby minimizing the possibility of pressure and infringement of its interests.

In general, the authors predict that as China "rises", it will face an increasingly complex challenge from external factors, which will result from the proportionally increasing opposition of certain Western forces; but this same circumstance, in their opinion, will determine the growth of China's interest in stable relations with Russia.

As a result of a comprehensive review of all nine parameters of China's long-term development (performed against a clear background of the factor of Russian interests), scientists conclude that there is a huge and yet untapped potential for complementarity and mutual stimulation of China and Russia. Emphasis is placed on the imperative of their co-development, which is understood by the reader as a serious opportunity for the most effective solution of the tasks facing each of the two countries, which stems from the prospects for long-term and trusting partnership.

It seems that the arguments in favor of such a judgment are supported not only by an analysis of a wide range of objective factors, but also by the fact that the authors avoid the temptation of simplifications, actually pointing out potential "stress fields". These include, in particular, the preservation of the gap between the levels of political and trade-economic relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation, elements of an imbalance of their interests at the regional level, and cooling as a result of the "blurring" policy of the West.

An effective way to realize favorable potentials and eliminate challenges is the large-scale development of trade and economic ties that can satisfy the obvious interests of both China (the raw material deficit, the tasks of raising the Northeast and West of the PRC) and Russia, which cannot miss the chances of an economic and political breakthrough associated with the resource potential of Siberia and the Far East. The results of the Russian-Chinese summit in Beijing in March 2006, which ended with the signing of a number of economic agreements, are a good sign in this direction. It is no coincidence that the main ones are joint decisions on the construction of two lines of gas pipelines from Siberia to China and the immediate start of construction of the first section of the Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, the first oil of which will go to China by the end of 2008.

Further progress on this path, and this is emphasized in the work, will require a lot of political will from the leadership of both countries, which, speaking of Russia, means the need for it to consistently pursue its policy of Eurasian geopolitical identity.

Scientific developments, including peer - reviewed research, also make an obvious contribution to understanding this need.

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