Libmonster ID: CN-1321

V. V. ZHIGULEVA

Candidate of Economic Sciences

KeywordsChina, reforms, consumption, foreign trade, consumer market, income of the population, difference between urban and rural areas

The global financial and economic crisis has not spared the PRC: its negative impact was manifested in a slowdown in GDP growth in late 2008-early 2009, although on a smaller scale compared to other countries of the world. First of all, this affected export-oriented industries.

During 2000-2008. China maintained its GDP growth rate at 10-11% (see Table 2). The Chinese press repeatedly stressed the danger of "overheating of the economy" and the need to reduce the growth rate to an acceptable 7-8%. Such high growth rates of the Chinese economy are mainly due to two factors: a high accumulation rate (45-55%) and the export orientation of the economy.

In the pre-crisis years, the growth of exports made it possible to increase the level of employment (the movement of labor resources from agriculture to industries and services) and to increase imports (raw materials, materials, engineering products, technologies). One of the key elements of China's economic growth was the rapidly growing foreign trade turnover. In 2008, it was $2,561. 7 billion, an increase of more than 125 times since 1978 ($20.6 billion). By 2008, the share of exports in the country's GDP reached 34% (in 1978 - 4.6%), imports-26.4% (in 1978-5.1%) 1.

In 2010, China's total foreign trade turnover rose to $2,972. 76 billion, but the turn to the domestic market, primarily investment consumption, significantly reduced the share of the foreign trade surplus in the country's GDP. The country's exports reached $1 trillion 577.93 billion, an increase of 31.3% compared to 2009, while the volume of imports reached $ 1 trillion 394.83 billion (an increase of 38.7%). China's trade surplus fell by 6.4% from 2009 to $183.1 billion, reducing the share of this indicator in the country's total foreign trade from 11.6% in 2008 to 6.2% in 2010.2

TURNING TOWARDS THE DOMESTIC MARKET

China's influence on the global economy grew in many ways, drawing neighboring countries and regions into its orbit of interests. At the same time, despite clear economic achievements, China's rapid growth was accompanied by a number of serious challenges. And with the development of the economy, they did not become less.

Traditionally, the following factors are distinguished: the negative impact of crisis trends in the global economy, the lack of our own natural resources, as well as socio-demographic, geographical and environmental problems.

The implementation of reform and opening-up policies has ensured the dynamic development of the Chinese economy, but its growth has mainly been driven by exports and investment. Although strong consumer demand in the United States and European Union countries has provided China with a huge trade surplus, this model, built on dependence on trading partners, is very unreliable: the deterioration of the global situation is fraught with crisis phenomena in the Chinese economy. This is exactly what happened in the 4th quarter of 2008: as a result of reduced exports, China's economic growth rate dropped to 6.8%.

The reduction in demand for export products resulted in an increase in unemployment, mainly in the coastal regions. Automatic redirection of export products to the domestic market was impossible, since consumer demand of the Chinese population has grown slightly in recent years. If final consumer demand does not increase, then there is a risk of overproduction. As a result, at the end of 2008, China suffered losses not only due to a slowdown in the global economy, but also due to an insufficiently high level of domestic consumption.

Falling demand for Chinese products and, consequently, exports to developed countries led to the closure of hundreds of production facilities in different parts of China. However, the Chinese leadership managed to maintain a high GDP growth rate (8.7% in 2009 and 10.3% in 2010) as a result of the implementation of the anti-crisis package, which became the basis for maintaining employment at almost the same level.

The anti-crisis measures were based on an attempt to reorient the growth of the Chinese economy from the foreign trade sector to the accelerated expansion of the domestic market and demand. The package of anti-crisis measures included a significant increase in capital investment in 7 major areas totaling 4 trillion yuan ($585.5 billion) and was designed to increase demand for infrastructure facilities 3. These include building social housing, improving rural infrastructure, investing in transport (with an emphasis on railways), building and refurbishing schools and hospitals (especially in the relatively poorly developed interior provinces), improving the environmental situation (building sewage treatment plants), investing in the development of new technologies and rebuilding areas affected by the earthquake in the province Sichuan in 2008

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The plan also contained 3 points directly related to stimulating domestic demand and increasing the disposable income of Chinese consumers. These included, first, subsidizing grain prices and increasing financial assistance to farmers, second, changing the mechanism for collecting value-added tax (which should allow Chinese companies to save about $17 billion each year), and third, lifting all state restrictions on issuing bank loans. To ensure this condition, the refinancing rate of the People's Bank of China, which serves as the Central Bank, was reduced to 3% per annum, and the average bank discount rate on loans is 5.58% per year. As a result, rapid credit growth was recorded everywhere in 2009.

The policy of expanding domestic demand can be considered a strategic course of stimulating economic development.

However, this primarily concerns increasing domestic investment. An increase in investment in infrastructure and industrial support in 2009 (an increase of 44.3%) led to the reorientation of a number of large export enterprises to the domestic market. But the demand for the products of these enterprises was often limited by the inability to use high-quality products in the national economy of China. Secondly, it is impossible to increase investments indefinitely, and the efficiency of such investments will decrease every year.

The Chinese leadership sees the search for new markets, both external and internal, as one of the new directions for accelerating economic growth.

What influences the expansion of China's domestic consumer market? Traditionally, the emphasis was placed on the presence of a huge population in China. However, this is clearly not enough. It is necessary that the population has the means to buy consumer goods, the supply of these goods, and most importantly, in the case of the Chinese, the desire to consume and buy.

Consumer demand trends can also be judged by the dynamics of retail trade turnover and its correlation with GDP dynamics. In the first two decades of reforms, the growth rate of retail trade turnover was 2-3 times faster than GDP growth, which indicated an increase in consumer demand, supply of goods and the reform of the pricing system in the country4.

Although at the beginning of the period of reforms and openness, the consumer market was characterized by a relative narrowness and lack of supply of goods, its impact on GDP growth before 2000 was in most cases 2 times higher than the similar impact of investment demand (Table 1) .5 The narrowness of the consumer market was largely determined, in addition to the deficit, by the limited purchasing power of the population.

Table 1

The ratio of 3 types of demand in the creation of GDP growth in 1978-2000., %

Years

GDP dynamics

Consumer demand

Investment demand

External demand

Dynamics of retail trade turnover

1978

11,7

39,4

66,0

-5,4

8,8

1979

7,6

87,3

15,4

-2,7

15,5

1980

7,8

71,8

26,4

1,8

18,9

1981

5,2

93,4

-4,3

10,9

9,8

1982

9,1

64,7

23,8

11,5

9,4

1983

10,9

74,1

40,4

-14,5

10,9

1984

15,2

69,3

40,5

-9,8

18,5

1985

13,5

85,5

80,9

-66,4

27,5

1986

8,8

45,0

23,2

31,8

15,0

1987

11,6

50,3

23,5

26,2

17,6

1988

11,3

49,6

39,4

11,0

27,8

1989

4,1

39,6

16,4

44,0

8,9

1990

3,8

47,8

1,8

50,4

2,5

1991

9,2

65,1

24,3

10,5

13,4

1992

14,2

72,5

34,3

-6,8

16,8

1993

14,0

59,5

78,6

-38,1

29,8

1994

13,1

30,2

43,8

26,0

30,5

1995

10,9

44,7

55,0

0,3

26,8

1996

10,0

60,1

34,3

5,6

20,1

1997

9,3

37,0

18,6

44,4

10,2

1998

7,8

57,1

26,4

16,5

6,8

1999

7,6

76,8

24,7

-1,5

6,8

2000

8,4

63,8

21,7

14,5

9,7



Source: Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao 2010. Beijing, 2010, pp. 23, 37, 163.

Consumption of the population was also limited by the psychological pressure of the "noble poverty" policy.

In the late 1970s, the population preferred to buy traditional goods for the Chinese family: "three rotating and one sounding" (watch, bicycle, sewing machine and radio). Buying even these items was only possible as a result of austerity. Many products could be purchased

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only by card, for example, cotton fabrics, cotton wool, soap, as well as almost all types of food. The Chinese population, even in large cities, had no idea about many durable goods.

After 1984, the population's income began to grow quite rapidly. Over 20 years of reforms, the incomes of the urban population increased 3.8 times, and the rural population-4.7 times.

The main acceleration in rural income growth occurred in the 1980s as a result of the introduction of family contracts. At the same time, the policy of attracting foreign capital in light industry and expanding the export-oriented sector had a positive impact on domestic consumption and, accordingly, on the volume and structure of domestic trade.

The construction of enterprises for the production of household electrical appliances, already focused on the domestic market, has contributed to the emergence of a wide range of black-and-white televisions, mechanical washing machines, etc. on the Chinese market. At the same time, restrictions on urban electricity consumption were lifted (the ban on selling incandescent light bulbs over 25 watts for personal use continued in the 1980s), rural electrification was expanded, and the level of welfare was significantly improved.

The volume of domestic trade began to expand rapidly under the influence of changes in the structure of consumption. Since the mid-80s, prestigious purchases have included a fan, a tape recorder, a TV, a refrigerator, and a washing machine. In the late 1990s, the average Chinese urban family began to focus on purchasing high-end consumer products such as a multi-system color TV, a music system, and a multi-chamber refrigerator. In the cities of central subordination and coastal areas, the most prestigious purchases were considered air conditioning, a microwave oven, an electric heater, as well as a personal computer and a video recorder with CDs. During these years, it was noted at the highest level that tourism and housing purchases have become "new consumption hotspots" .6

For almost 15 years since the beginning of the reforms, China has continued to have a seller's market, which is determined by the continuing deficit for many groups of consumer and investment goods. Expanding production and improving the structure of the economy led to the replacement of the seller's market by the buyer's market in the second half of the 1990s.

According to the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, in 1998, for 605 basic consumer goods, the share of consumer goods where supply was equal to demand was 27.6%. As for the group of goods where supply exceeds demand, in the first half of 1997 its share was only 5.3%, but by the end of the year it had grown by 26.5% to 31.8%. In 1998, the number of goods where supply exceeds demand continued to grow, reaching 72.23% by the end of the year, an increase of 40.43 percentage points.7

Summing up the development of the consumer market in 1980-1990, we can conclude that in 1996-1998 China emerged from the era of scarcity and entered the buyer's market, when it is important not just to purchase goods, but to purchase goods of a certain quality and certain technical characteristics. It is from the late 1990s that the formation of well-known Chinese market brands and trademarks begins.

In order to meet the diverse needs of the population, especially those with high incomes, the import of consumer goods (clothing, alcoholic beverages, fruit) was allowed in 1996, although a number of such goods continued to be equated with "luxury" and were subject to a special import tax (for example, cars and cigarettes).

The period after China's accession to the World Trade Organization is characterized by the active construction of shopping centers in cities and the expansion of new forms of trade in rural areas. This policy has become a logical continuation of one of the directions of the so-called active financial policy aimed at expanding domestic consumer demand. As part of the implementation of measures to overcome the consequences of the "Asian" financial crisis of 1997-1998, pensions, payments and salaries of state employees were increased by 50-70%. At the state level, purchases of durable goods by the population were encouraged: the "two golden weeks of consumption" were established.-

Table 2

The ratio of 3 types of demand in the creation of GDP growth in 2001-2010, %

Years

GDP dynamics

Consumer demand

Investment demand

External demand

Dynamics of retail trade turnover

2001

8,3

50,2

49,9

-0,1

10,1

2002

9,1

43,9

48,5

7,6

11,8

2003

10,0

35,8

63,2

1,0

9,8

2004

10,1

39,5

54,5

6,0

13,3

2005

11,3

38,0

38,9

23,1

14,9

2006

12,7

40,0

43,9

16,1

15,8

2007

14,2

39,2

42,7

18,1

18,2

2008

9,6

43,3

47,7

9,0

22,7

2009

8,7

53,1

94,6

-47,7

15,5

2010

10,3

37,3

54,8

7,9

-



Source: Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao 2010. Beijing, 2010, pp. 23, 37, 163; for 2010 interview with Ma Jiatang - http://www.stats.gov.cn/was40/gjtjj_nodate_detail.jsp?channelid=75004&record=59

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research Institute " in autumn and spring. Gradually, the scope for granting consumer loans was normalized and expanded.

At the same time, the population's income grew and the structure of its consumption changed. Back in 1997-2003, the growth rate of consumer spending was almost equal to the growth of household incomes. The decline in the urban Engel coefficient (the share of food expenditures in total expenditures) from 48% in 1997 to 36.5% in 2009 indicates that China is approaching the group of medium-developed countries.8

However, the share of the consumer market in GDP creation began to gradually decline from 65% to 35-38%, investment demand took the first place, and the share of export demand began to grow steadily and rapidly (Table 2). The dynamics of retail trade turnover growth also began to slow down. If it were not for the rise in prices, the growth rates of retail turnover would have been significantly lower-usually by 3-4%.

The decline in the share of the consumer market in the creation of China's GDP indicates an increase in the country's involvement in the global economy. China, having turned into a" global factory " of consumer goods, in the 2000s began to increase the attraction of foreign capital to heavy industry enterprises operating for export. The country's dependence on global market trends has significantly increased.

The consumer market in China developed mainly at the expense of the urban population. A number of publications have reported that the country has joined the "consumer society", but it is difficult to agree with this. The needs of the Chinese peasant continue to remain at a rather low level, as evidenced by the constant and active growth of savings. Despite numerous measures to reduce the interest rate on deposits of the population, the volume of savings of the population continues to grow. The urban and rural population saves money for the education of children, the purchase of housing and cars, as well as for a"rainy day". This is especially true in rural areas, where there is still a rather weak social security system.

LIFE HAS BECOME MORE SATISFYING

Over the years of reforms, the structure of the Chinese consumer market has undergone drastic changes.

Previously, most Chinese people preferred to eat at home or in canteens at work. As for breakfast, often the lack of kitchens in the dorms forced them to eat outside. For a long time, the low availability of household refrigerators in Chinese families and the relative lag in the development of packaged and frozen or ready-to-eat food production preserved the traditional food system based on almost daily purchase of fresh food and cooking.

Prejudice often persisted, especially among the older generation, against modern food retailers, although the quality of their products and compliance with hygiene standards was higher than that of products in traditional markets. The situation has changed over the past 10 years. The Chinese were happy to start visiting large supermarkets. According to research by international companies (European Carrefour and American Wal-Mart), the relatively limited food storage capacity of Chinese families and the desire to eat only fresh food make it necessary to visit stores more often during the week. A Chinese family usually spends an average of 3.5 times a week shopping in supermarkets, which is 5 times more than in the United States.

Over the years of reforms, there has been a significant diversification of the forms of commercial enterprises. Grocery stores in China can be roughly divided into three types.

The first is the "corner shops": small eateries that sell everything from peanuts to mousetraps. Their owners have no idea about such things as" product display "or"customer loyalty". These shops are in every large house. They occupy 20-30 sq. m.

The second type of Chinese grocery stores is modern hypermarkets, such as Wal-Mart or Carrefour. These "palaces of consumption", occupying tens of thousands of square meters. m of retail space, are distinguished by the presence of air conditioning, perfectly clean floors and new retail equipment. Among the huge assortment of goods, there are also such rather exotic goods for China, such as cheese or fresh milk. These global retail chains keep their bar high no matter where they are located.

And the third type is a cross between a hypermarket and Uncle Liao's diner. These are local supermarkets-very large stores with a fairly large assortment of goods, which, however, is intended exclusively for Chinese people. These stores reflect the peculiarities and flavor of the local gastronomic culture.

Fast-food restaurant chains and cafes are expanding at an accelerated pace in China. The first restaurants of such international giants as" Kentucky Fried Chicken "and" Pizza Hut "appeared in Beijing back in 1987.However, they were met by the Chinese public rather coolly: the author did not encounter such queues as in the first McDonald's restaurant in Moscow. Apparently, both in terms of prices and taste parameters, the food in these restaurants was not liked by the Chinese.

Later, McDonald's and Taco Bell entered the Chinese market. After a certain adaptation of the food offered to the tastes and habits of Chinese consumers and adjusting the price level, the network of giants of fast food chain restaurants began to expand. By 2009, there were more than 3,000 restaurants in 320 cities and counties in China. According to Euromonitor, the total revenue of fast food restaurants increased from 253.8 billion yuan ($39.2 billion*) in 2004 to 470.6 billion yuan ($72.7 billion) in 2009, an increase of 13% per year. China's fast food market is projected to grow to 767 billion yuan ($118.5 billion) by 2014.

In large cities, McDonald's and Kentucky Fried Tea-


* In June 2011, $1 was equal to approximately 6.47 yuan (ed.).

page 28

ken " quite actively compete with each other, which forces them to conduct various advertising campaigns and promotions to attract visitors, as well as to restrain the increase in prices for their products.

In recent years, the fashion for Sunday lunches with the whole family and in traditional Chinese restaurants has been growing. A large proportion of Chinese restaurants remain small family businesses. Small restaurant businesses are of great interest for attracting capital from national and international restaurant chains in the form of franchises*.

A number of factors influenced the development of the public catering network.

Partly as a result of increasing urbanisation, the number of people employed has increased from 752 million in 2004 to 775 million in 2008.9

Food preferences are changing due to an increase in the number of employees who do not know how or do not have the time or desire to cook, as a result of which they eat out on a permanent basis. So, to save time, young people now often do not bring food to work from home, but buy ready-made breakfasts and lunches in fast food restaurants. Given that many employees have limited time for lunch, a quick meal is becoming an increasingly popular option.

In response to the growth of office employees in cities, many leading food delivery operators offer lunch sets, which is convenient and fast. Such workers usually eat in fast-food restaurants, while a significant number of young people who live separately from their parents mostly eat in such restaurants as an inexpensive alternative to daily cooking at home.

In addition to the growing consumption of meat products, the structure of nutrition has changed in recent years. First of all, this concerns the appearance and expansion of consumption of milk and modern sour-milk products. Thus, per capita consumption of milk in cities increased from 4.8 kg in the early 1990s to 15.7 kg in 2002.

In the 2000s, milk and dairy products became a mandatory food item for children and young people. The average per capita consumption of vegetables and meat continues to grow, while rice consumption begins to decline. The low price level also contributes to the diversification of the food structure. It is estimated that the average weekly grocery purchase at a mid-level supermarket is 185-200 yuan ($28 - $43) per person. This purchase includes meat, poultry, fish, vegetables, fruits, sweets and dairy products.

I WANTED TO DRESS UP MORE ELEGANTLY

A fairly high share of expenses (about 10%) is retained by clothing expenses. In 2007-2009, this share grew annually: by 9.8%, 10.37% and 10.47%, respectively. In 2009, the Chinese population spent 1,284. 5 billion yuan ($198.5 billion) on clothing purchases, which is 1.34 times more than in 2003.10

The emergence of the middle class and a small stratum of the rich created an opportunity to sell expensive brands of clothing. In 2001-2003, brand stores of many well-known design firms appeared in the central cities. However, according to analysts of this market segment, the presence of foreign model houses remains minimal. Major international clothing brands are often limited to having large stores in Hong Kong, and many small branded stores have been forced to withdraw from the Chinese market or transfer the rights to some of their brands to Chinese manufacturers.

Foreign brands of clothing, which are mainly produced by Chinese clothing companies, are represented either by a cheap segment that is sold in large Chinese department stores and shopping centers, or by high-quality goods sold in small quantities in boutiques that are franchises of these brands. After 2005-2006, clothing belonging to the middle segment brands (GiordanoEspritZaraUniqlo, etc.) began to appear.

Japanese brands of clothing are particularly popular among Chinese consumers. Gradually begins to win the tastes of the Chinese and the European style. So, 70-80% of the Esprit range offered in China does not differ from that sold in Europe. In 2008, the volume of imports of clothing and accessories in China amounted to $2.275 billion, which is 15.52% higher compared to the same period in 2007, including the volume of imports of clothing made of fabric increased by 19.24% to $1.219 billion, and the volume of imports of knitted clothing increased by 8.13%, which is $854 million. However, in the total volume of clothing sold in China, imports account for only 2.36%.

The specifics of the clothing trade that developed in the late 1980s, when the domestic market began to receive batches of clothing produced according to the patterns and styles of Western firms, but from cheaper customs, continue to be preserved. In the Chinese market, you can find clothes of any quality, any style and for any purse. According to representatives of well-known Western brands, the potential of the Chinese market with a billion-strong army of consumers is so great that even thousands of enterprises that illegally copy their products in China do not bother them.

SPECIAL DEMAND - FOR HOUSING AND CARS

Trade in durable consumer goods and furniture, as well as building materials needed for home repairs, continues to grow. We can say that the urban population's consumer demand has been filled (Table 3).For many product lines, sales expansion is possible only if old models of household appliances are replaced with newer ones, which has been the case in the last two years (2009-2010).


* Franchise - a license to use a trademark and technology (editor's note).

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Table 3

Average number of household durables per 100 urban families

 

2000

2005

2008

2009

Washing machines

90,5

95,5

94,7

96,0

Refrigerators

80,1

90,7

93,6

95,4

Color TVs

116,6

134,8

132,9

135,7

Air conditioners

30,8

80,7

100,3

106,8

Water heating devices

49,1

72,7

80,7

83,4

Mobile phones

19,5

137,0

172,0

182

Personal computers

9,7

41,5

59,7

65,7

Cars

0,5

3,37

8,83

10,9



Source: Zhongguo tongji niangjian, 2010. Table 10.10.

The Chinese population, buying new housing or receiving it as compensation for the old, faces high costs for its repair and decoration. The building materials market is constantly growing. Although the main retail foreign suppliers of building materials (KingfisherObiHome Way) We have already opened our own chain branded stores in China, and about 80% of the necessary materials are sold through small stores that also offer their services for construction and finishing works.

In addition to the purchase of housing, the" hot spot " of consumption in the last 10 years has been the purchase of cars. If in 1998 there were 2.3 cars per 1,000 people, then in 2003 this figure rose to 5.4 and continued to grow rapidly. In 2009, more than 13 million cars were sold, and in 2010 - about 18 million (Table 4).

The purchase of cars leads to an increase in the consumption of gasoline and spare parts, which also causes an increase in retail sales.

CONSUMPTION IMBALANCE

Differences in the level of income and living standards of China's urban population lead to significant geographical differences in consumption and, consequently, local trade dynamics.

Since 1996, Shanghai has been the leader in retail turnover for 10 years. The population of the city and surrounding areas consumed 1.7-2.3 times more than the national average. However, in the twenty-first century, especially after the 2008 Olympics, the situation changed. Beijing ranked 1st in terms of retail and wholesale trade turnover. In 2009, this figure reached 2086.8 billion yuan ($322.5 billion) in Beijing, 1855.3 billion yuan ($286.7 billion) in Shanghai, 1788.8 billion yuan ($276.5 billion), 1346.1 billion yuan ($208 billion) and 1295.4 billion yuan ($200.2 billion) in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, respectively.

However, the main disparity in the Chinese consumer market remains the rural lag in both income and consumption, which is the main reason for the low capacity of the rural consumer market. Although the majority of China's population continues to live in rural areas, the volume of retail trade in rural areas is significantly lagging behind (Table 5).

Among the main reasons holding back the growth of rural consumption, in addition to the above, we should note the desire of farmers to save, as well as the low level of electrification of the village. The Chinese leadership, pursuing a policy of San nong (overcoming 3 agricultural problems: rural poverty, difficulties in the life of peasants, and agricultural instability), quite successfully solved these problems: the peasants ' incomes slowly grew, and 95% of villages and villages were provided with electricity. The reform of the agrarian economy and the increase in the level of specialization of districts in the production of certain types of agricultural products created certain incentives for increasing the consumption of farmers.

In 2005, the Ministry of Trade of the People's Republic of China began to encourage the opening of branches of chain stores in rural areas. As noted by the Minister of Commerce Bo Xilai, the goal of this program was to reduce the influx of counterfeit and low-quality goods into the countryside and encourage consumption in rural areas. By the end

Table 4

Dynamics of car sales in 2003-2009

Year

Number of cars sold, mln units.

Growth dynamics, %

2003

4,39

35,2

2004

5,07

15,5

2005

5,76

13,5

2006

7,22

25,3

2007

8,79

21,8

2008

9,38

6,7

2009

13,65

45,5



Source: Zhongguo shangwu nianjian. 2010. Beijing, 2010, p. 344.

page 30

Table 5

Urban-rural ratio in total retail turnover, %

Years

City

Village

2003

73,8

26,2

2004

72,8

26,2

2005

70,3

29,7

2006

69,8

30,2

2007

69,3

30,7

2008

69,1

30,9

2009

67,6

32,4



Source: Zhongguo shangwu nianjian 2010 (Chinese Trade Yearbook). Beijing, 2010, p. 344.

In 2006, more than 160,000 chain stores were opened in rural areas across the country, and in 2007 their number reached 250,000, covering 75% of counties across the country.

Since the beginning of 2009, the country has been implementing a policy of "electrical equipment and cars - to the countryside", which resulted in sales of 92.5 million various electrical goods worth 162.7 billion yuan ($25.1 billion).11. However, this policy gained the greatest momentum only after the start of paying compensation for old electrical appliances (from 10% to 25% of the cost for electrical equipment, 13% for motorcycles, and 3-6 thousand yuan [$463.5 - $927] for cars) and providing low-interest loans for the purchase of large appliances and cars.

Price dynamics also significantly affect the level of consumption. As the Chinese consumer purchases high-end products, they are increasingly investing in their health, education, and entertainment, including tourism.12 Until 2008, under the influence of "overheating of the economy" and growing concern about increasing economic instability, the population actively invested in buying real estate for further resale or rental, which led to the formation of a "bubble" and a sharp increase in real estate prices. The beginning of the crisis caused a decline in real estate prices and a reorientation of the population to buy gold in jewelry and bullion. Since 2001, China has been the world's 4th largest gold consumer after India, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. The purchase of gold products in China accounts for 96% of the total gold consumption market. Public opinion surveys conducted in 10 of the country's largest cities showed that more than 80% of buyers buy gold items as jewelry, while only 11.1% buy them for investment purposes. 13

* * *

Thus, the consumer market is a dynamically developing sector of the Chinese economy, which expands as the country's economy develops, incomes and needs of the population grow.

At the same time, a serious income gap between urban and rural areas, different regions and strata of the population limits the growth of the consumer market. The implementation of anti-crisis measures in 2009-2010 led to an expansion in the construction of infrastructure facilities and, as a result, a significant increase in investment demand. The increase in prices for investment goods was one of the reasons for the growth of the consumer price index (in May 2011-5.5% compared to May 2010). Among other factors of increasing consumer prices, we should also note the rise in prices for meat, vegetables and cereals, which inevitably limits the further rapid expansion of consumer consumption. Nevertheless, it is possible that in the near future China will become one of the leaders of the "consumer society", which will accelerate the development of the world economy, although it may lead to an aggravation of some contradictions in the global economy.

As noted above, the expansion of domestic demand, primarily investment demand, in 2010 for the first time in many years led to a more balanced foreign trade of the country and a decrease in the share of the surplus in its total volume.

In January-April 2011, compared to 2010, China's exports increased by 27.4% to $555.3 billion, and imports - by 29.6% to $545.02 billion, the surplus decreased by 33%, amounting to only $10.2 billion 14.

It is quite possible that over time, consumer demand will regain its position, becoming as powerful an engine for the development of the Chinese economy as investment and foreign trade.


1 Zhongguo jingji qianjing fenxi-2010 nian chongji baogao (Analysis of the prospects of the Chinese economy-2010. Spring report. Blue Book on Economics). Beijing Caller ID of China. 2010.

2 The total volume of China's foreign trade in 2010 exceeded $2.97 trillion, with an increase of 34.7%. 11.01.2011 - http://russian.china.org.cn/news/txt/2011-01/11/content_21710796.htm

Yu Shanshan. 3 How should 4 trillion yuan be spent? // China, 2009, N 1.

Zhiguleva V. V. 4 From the plan to the market: China's experience in the field of pricing reform (1978-2005). Moscow, IDV RAS, 2006.

5 Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao 2010. Beijing 2010, p. 37.

6 Xinhua. 06.03.2001.

7 Jingji zhibao. 02.03.1999.

8 Zhongguo tongji nianjian 2010. Table 9.5.

9 Ibid. Table 4.5.

10 Ibid. Table 9.5.

11 Zhongguo shangwu nianjian 2010 (Chinese Trade Yearbook 2010). Beijing, 2010. p. 345.

12 Jingji zhibao. 16.02.2011.

13 http://kitairu.net/rus/about_china/bimaaazine/archive/2006/5/47/

14 China's total foreign trade exceeded $2.97 trillion in 2010...


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