A.V. AFONASYEVA, Candidate of Economic Sciences, IDV RAS

China Keywords:. XVIII CPC National Congress, economic development, Xiaokang society. "the middle income trap", industry-specific economy

A scientific conference held at the Center for Economic and Social Research of China of the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences was devoted to the trends of China's economic development after the XVIII CPC Congress held in November 2012 and the coming to power of the "fifth generation" of Chinese leaders - a topic relevant for many countries of the world, including Russia. Opening the conference, M. L. Titarenko, Director of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that China is currently creating an alternative to the development of world civilization, called the "small prosperity" society (xiaokang).

According to Academician M. L. Titarenko, the main task of the Institute is to explain how China managed to create conditions that ensure high rates of economic growth of the country, create a situation of interdependence with all key international partners, carefully avoiding any complications in relations with other countries.

According to the director of the Institute, a special role was played by the creative approach to the theory of Marxism, which continues to be the fundamental ideology of the CCP. By rethinking the Marxist dialectic, the Chinese Communist Party shifted its focus from "the struggle of opposites" to "harmony of the different" (rse er bu tong).

It was on this theoretical basis that relations with the United States, Western Europe, Japan, Russia and other countries developed. CCP leaders sought and most often found ways to create interdependence with their main partners while respecting their own interests, and used this interdependence for the rise, development, and prosperity of their country.

Both in foreign and domestic policy, the Chinese leadership diligently sought, first of all, commonality and intersection of interests, realizing that any other approach leads to the loss of allies, friends and partners in the long term, to the disunity of society, which, ultimately, may call into question the territorial integrity of the state.

According to M. L. Titarenko, Russian sinologists should understand, from an economic point of view, the new Chinese approach to doing business. The emphasis in this approach is not so much on the benefits, but on ensuring that these benefits are mutual.

The reports of all participants of the conference were divided thematically into two sections: general problems and industry economics.

GENERAL ISSUES SECTION

As part of the discussion of common problems, the report "The XVIII CPC Congress: How to ensure the Building of the Xiaokang Society in China "was delivered by the Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Communist Party of China. Director of the Institute of Economic and Social Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Center for Economic and Social Research in China, Doctor of Economics, Professor A.V. Ostrovsky.

A distinctive feature of the development of the PRC on the eve of the XVIII CPC Congress, the speaker stressed, was the rapid economic growth in 2001-2011 - 10.4% of GDP growth annually. However, by the autumn of 2012, due to a significant change in the external and internal conditions of the country's development, many problems had accumulated related to the need to develop a new model of economic development.

On the one hand, the restriction of export opportunities to the United States, the EU and Japan due to the ongoing global financial crisis, which led to a decrease in the economic potential of the PRC, focused on foreign markets. This forced the Chinese to move from a well-established model of an export-oriented economy to a model aimed at expanding domestic demand.

On the other hand, the need to change the model of economic growth was based on a decrease in the number of cheap labor in the foreseeable future.

forces. According to expert estimates, by the end of the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) in China, the number of people entering working age will be less than those going beyond working age, resulting in a relative shortage of labor. This will force China to use a smaller number of workers, but more highly qualified, to develop innovations and introduce them into production.

Over the years of reforms, China has certainly solved the problem of "feeding and warming" (wenbao) the population, although it has not yet reached the level of "small prosperity"in all regions of the country. The report of the CPC Central Committee highlighted and confirmed the main task of the CPC-building a" small welfare society " (Xiaokang Shehui) by 2020, which can be implemented "only on the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics."

The congress summed up the results of the country's socio-economic development, identified the main indicative indicators of the PRC's economic development until 2020 (socio-economic, development of science, technology and education, living standards of the population, environmental protection). The goal is to double GDP by 2020 and increase the per capita GDP indicator relative to 2010, while maintaining the average annual GDP growth at the level of 7%.

According to the speaker, by 2015 the share of R & D expenditures in GDP should reach 2.2%, and the unemployment rate should be below 5%. At the same time, the average annual income level in the city will be 26,810 yuan, in the village-8,310 yuan. 357 million people should be covered by various social insurance schemes. Indicative indicators for environmental protection determine the area of arable land required to maintain food security at 122 million hectares, indicate the need to further reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP, reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (_CO2), carbon compounds, and sulfur dioxide ₍SO2). It also emphasizes the necessity of implementing afforestation programs.

Concluding the report, A.V. Ostrovsky noted that if the Government of the People's Republic of China is not ready to change the demographic policy, to stimulate innovation in the field of new technologies and to ensure the transformation of the economic structure, with a shortage of cheap labor, China will face serious economic challenges. With higher wages and social insurance for migrant workers with rural registration, China will lose some of its advantages in international competition, resulting in lower exports and higher unemployment.

Analyzing the results of the XVIII CPC Congress, the speaker concludes that if the three main problems of Chinese society - population, relative lack of energy resources, and environmental problems - are consistently addressed, China will be able to achieve the ambitious goals set by the congress by 2020.:

- ensure a twofold increase in GDP production and per capita GDP growth (compared to 2010);

- creation of the world's largest domestic market;

- accelerated development of social security for urban and rural populations;

- creation of a system of rational and orderly distribution of income.

The implementation of the socio-economic goals set at the XVIII CPC Congress to double GDP and per capita GDP, compared with 2010, and build a "small prosperity" society should create conditions for socio-political stability in Chinese society.

In the report of the deputy. Director of the Publishing House of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics V. Ya. Portyakova - "Does China have a chance not to get stuck in the "middle income trap"? (About the monograph Wing Tai U)" - the concept of "middle income traps" was considered. The "trap" refers to a stage in the country's development when per capita income has exceeded 20% of the US GDP per capita, but has not yet reached 55% of this level. So far, only South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have managed to overcome this trap, while a much larger number of countries are stuck in it, for example, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Malaysia, Thailand.

After 2007-2008. China has reached the level of 20% of the average per capita GDP of the United States, the IMF in 2011 officially included China in the group of middle-income countries. In China, much attention is paid to the problem of overcoming the country's "middle income trap". In particular, the monograph " A new engine of Economic growth for China. Avoid the middle-income trap by stopping continuing to do the same things as before." The book is aimed at the Western reader. Its main recommendation is to make everything that is possible in China private, and, above all, to introduce full ownership of land by the peasant household, as this is the most powerful incentive for future economic growth.

The book emphasizes that China's development, despite all the successes, was far from perfect, and a number of problems accumulated. First, there are problems in the functioning mechanism of the Chinese economy, which are manifested in the ever-present danger of a banking crisis and the tendency to reduce the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. Second, there is the problem of a significant gap between urban and rural living conditions. To eliminate it, Chinese economists propose to abolish registration, remove restrictions on migration to large cities, provide social support to peasants employed in cities, and guarantee them full ownership of land. Third, there is the problem of external pressures, including those related to the yuan, energy resources, and limited water resources.

At the end of the report, V. Ya. Portyakov raised the question: what can be the reaction of the rest of the world to China's plans?

overcome the "middle income trap"? According to the speaker, the rest of the world is not interested in China reaching an average per capita GDP of 55% of the US level, i.e. $27 thousand. More reasonable to him are the proposals of some Chinese experts to consider reaching the level of average per capita income of $12 thousand as an actual overcoming of the "middle income trap".

J. M. Berger, Doctor of Historical Sciences, devoted his report to conceptual innovations in the documents of the XVIII CPC Congress. He stressed that the procedure adopted in China for preparing and adopting the main document of the party Congress-the Report of the CPC Central Committee-is theoretically aimed not so much at updating the ideological baggage, but at confirming and consolidating proven attitudes that do not cause doubts and disagreements. However, this does not mean that innovations are completely absent.

J. M. Berger recalled that on the eve of the congress, rumors were spread about possible changes in the assessment of Mao Zedong's ideological legacy. Although the assumptions about radical changes were not justified, less obvious, but no less significant reassessments still occurred. Mao Zedong's ideas were mentioned in his report to the 17th Congress of the Communist Party of China (2007) within the framework of the theoretical system of specific Chinese socialism. The report to the XVIII Congress speaks of the leading role of these ideas only in relation to the period of the "new democratic revolution" and the period of "socialist transformations".

The congress documents expanded the list of basic values of socialism, and formulated the tasks of the "four modernizations" and their interrelationship in a different way. To the four directions of state construction and development, a fifth one has been added - environmental. For the first time since the XIII CPC Congress, a special section of the report is devoted to the reform of the political system. Among the tasks of social construction, "deepening the reform of the income distribution system"was highlighted.

Doctor of Economics A. N. Anisimov in his report "Why the balance of economic forces is rapidly changing in favor of the PRC" stressed that China has avoided economic failures and catastrophes precisely because its leaders almost always proceeded from the priority task of developing the real sector of the economy. In practice, following this principle implied consistent adaptation of economic policy and the institutional structure of the economy (i.e., what is commonly called the economic model) to the conditions of the economic situation. When the environment changes , the model also changes. Whether the share of private capital in the economy is greater or less is not particularly important. It is only important that it corresponds to the conditions of the situation. The use of an effective economic model focused on the fastest increase in the economic mass of the PRC is the No. 1 reason for the rapid growth of the PRC's share in the world economy. The decisions of the 18th CPC National Congress suggest that little will change in this regard in the medium term.

Reason No. 2 for the rapid increase in the share of the PRC in the global economy is that developed countries in their economic policies, first of all, pay attention to optimizing the financial sector, while the real economy sector - only insofar. Without a significant change in the economic policies of developed countries and their satellites, the ratio of the economic mass of developed countries to China will continue to shift rapidly in China's favor.

E. P. Pivovarova"Scientific Concept of Development in the light of the decisions of the XVIII CPC Congress", highlighted the main theoretical innovations of the socio-economic development of the PRC. The XVIII CPC Congress confirmed its loyalty to the guiding ideas, namely: Marxism-Leninism, the ideas of Mao Zedong, the theory of Deng Xiaoping and the scientific concept of development. The main content of the "scientific concept of development" was defined by the congress as "theoretical innovation based on practice". According to the analysis of theoretical and practical research in the PRC throughout all the years of reform, the Chinese leadership remains committed to empirical analysis, " theoretical understanding of practical issues." It continues to believe that "only combining the CCP's guiding ideas with the practice of today's China and the specifics of the era" can ensure the success of China's further socio-economic development.

O. N. Boroh"Development of the concept of reforms after the XVIII CPC Congress", considered new accents in the interpretation of China's economic development strategy. Representatives of the new leadership headed by Xi Jinping in their speeches touched upon a number of aspects of the reform concept. The main theses of the XVIII Congress were voiced, which, in essence, mean maintaining the previous course and adhering to the concepts put forward by the "fourth generation" of Chinese leaders by the leaders of the "fifth generation". In his speech, Xi Jinping reaffirmed the course of building socialism with Chinese characteristics, emphasizing the crucial importance of reform and openness. At the same time, he said for the first time that the long-standing dream of the Chinese people is to "revive the greatness of the Chinese nation." In her report "The Investment component of the Modern Economic Strategy of the People's Republic of China", Doctor of Economics L. V. Novoselova noted that at the XVII Congress of the CPC, the need for accelerated transformation of the country's economic development model was announced. Its main focus should be a more harmonious development of society, which implies a high quality of life of the people, convergence in the levels of development between the city and the countryside, as well as the availability of a favorable environment. Fulfilling the task of comprehensive development of the social sphere and raising the standard of living in China by tre-

It requires a drastic change in a number of macroeconomic proportions and, above all, the ratio between accumulation and consumption in GDP in favor of the latter. At the same time, a relative reduction in investment must necessarily be accompanied by a significant increase in the efficiency of their use, which, in turn, implies an increase in the quality of labor and the technological level of production, the development of a competitive environment with active participation of private business, as well as the expansion of capital exports in order to create cheap and sustainable channels for obtaining industrial raw materials.

Ph. D. in Economics E. S. Bazhenova made a presentation on "Socio-demographic development of the People's Republic of China in the course of reforms: new trends in the light of the decisions of the XVIII CPC Congress". According to the speaker, Chinese scientists have put forward a theoretical position on "building a demographically balanced society" in the PRC, which is a new approach in the policy of controlling population growth, taking into account Chinese specifics. In 2011, the population of the People's Republic of China was 1.347 billion. the absolute growth in 2007-2011 was 26 million people. If in 2007 the rate of natural population growth was 5.17%, then in 2011 the rate of natural population growth was 5.17%. it decreased to 4.79%. As a result of the efforts of the Chinese government to stabilize the population, its share in the total population of the world fell from 20.2% in 2005 to 19.4% in 2010, which indicates the success of the Chinese leadership's measures in the demographic direction. At the XVIII Congress of the CPC, the policy of continuing the planned birth rate policy and improving the quality characteristics of new generations was confirmed, which should contribute to the balanced development of the population of the PRC over a long period of time.

In her report "On the development of the Innovation potential of China's regions", PhD A.V. Afonasyeva highlighted two main approaches to assessing regional innovation potential that currently exist in China. The first one indicates a direct proportional dependence of the innovation potential of a particular region on the degree of its economic development and openness. Within the framework of this approach, there is a point system for assessing the innovation potential of regions, according to which the leaders as of 2012 were the provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, as well as Beijing and Shanghai.

The second approach, reflected in the" Program of the Main Functional Areas of China", states that any locality, regardless of its location and specialization, should develop along an innovative path. This approach divides the territory of the People's Republic of China into four types of "main functional areas": optimal, priority, restricted and prohibited areas for development. For each group of districts, the following are defined: innovation goal, innovation path, innovation factors, and main products. The second approach, according to the speaker, is a very valuable discovery of Chinese scientists, because it expands the framework of innovative development of regions established by the first approach, according to which the main condition for the development of the innovative potential of a particular region is capital, personnel and industrial bases.

M. V. Alexandrova, Ph. D. in Economics, concluded the session with a report "Russian-Chinese Trade and Economic Cooperation: current state and possible scenarios". It reviewed the current state, problems and possible scenarios for the development of bilateral trade and economic relations for the next 10 to 15 years. As the speaker emphasized, Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation is a "mirror" that reflects all the problems that have accumulated in the Soviet and Russian economies over the past 40 years. If in the future the Russian side does not abandon simple commodity exchange operations with the PRC, as well as investment cooperation in the field of agriculture and natural resource development, increasing and expanding such cooperation may lead to sad consequences for the whole of Russia and, especially, for its eastern regions.

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS SECTION

The section was opened by Candidate of Political Science P. B. Kamennov with the report "China's Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) in the context of the XVIII CPC Congress". According to the speaker, Hu Jintao's report at the congress sets the task of further strengthening the defense and creating armed forces that correspond to the international status of the PRC and are able to ensure the interests of the country's security and development in the new conditions. The tasks of the armed forces have been significantly expanded. Now they include not only the protection of the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity along the perimeter of its borders, but also ensuring security on the seas, in the world's oceans, in the air, space and electronic information spaces.

The Congress confirmed its commitment to implement the national defense modernization program adopted in 2006, which includes three stages. The phase that ended in 2010 called for a fundamental transformation of the Chinese armed forces. By 2020, it is planned to implement a program of general modernization of the armed forces in all areas. Finally, the strategic goal is to create an informatized armed forces capable of successfully operating in wars using information technology. Such goals pose new challenges for the Chinese military-industrial complex in the development and production of military equipment of the XXI century.

According to P. B. Kamennov, the process of transformation of state-owned enterprises and military-industrial complex institutions into enterprises based on mixed capital continues.

forms of ownership. Measures are being taken to create a State defense innovation system based simultaneously on civil and military scientific, technical and production potentials.

In recent years, the military-industrial complex's capabilities to develop and produce modern weapons and military equipment have significantly increased. The remaining dependence on foreign supplies of some of the most important components, such as aircraft engines, avionics, etc., remains an unresolved problem.

The military-industrial complex makes a significant contribution to solving the problems of economic construction, producing a wide range of civil products-from household appliances to nuclear reactors for nuclear power plants, aviation and space technology, powerful scientific and industrial supercomputers.

Ph. D. in Economics Z. A. Muromtseva in her report "Industrial development of the People's Republic of China in the materials of the XVIII CPC Congress" considered the stages of development of the Chinese economy: the transition from the stage of a global consumer goods factory to the stage of a world industrial power developing in the context of the formation of a new technological order.

Based on the XVIII Congress resolution, the Report and the CPC Charter adopted at the XVIII Congress, the strategy and objectives of a new type of industrialization with Chinese characteristics were analyzed. The term "new type of industrialization", which was put forward at the XVI CPC Congress (2002), was retained in the documents of the XVIII Congress. This term refers to the modernization of "dual-use" industries (vertically integrated civil and military complexes), improving the market economy model.

Candidate of Economic Sciences N. N. Koledenkova in her report "Railway engineering in China: transition to an innovative development path" said that in recent years, China has made significant efforts to develop railway engineering, which has become the most important industry in the country. Today, China is able to develop and produce powerful high-speed electric and diesel locomotives, as well as various types of railcars. Major achievements have been made in the development and production of high-speed electric trains. Due to the increase in the volume and technological level of railway rolling stock, the products of the Chinese industry have become competitive in the international market.

Ph. D. in Economics V. V. Chuvankova presented the report "Analysis of the development of small and medium-sized businesses in China in the light of the decisions of the XVIII CPC Congress". According to the speaker, promoting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in China has become not only an important, but also a long-term task. The practical implementation of the state's fiscal, financial, tax and credit policies aimed at providing comprehensive support and encouraging the development of medium-sized, small and micro-enterprises will always be in the focus of attention of the Chinese leadership. Small and medium-sized businesses are expected to play a key role in maintaining China's strong economic growth and meeting the targets set by the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 18th CPC National Congress.

Dr. L. D. Boni in her report "The Chinese Village on the way to a small Welfare society "considered the main directions of the Chinese government's strategic course on integrating the economic and social development of cities and villages, forming the foundations of a small welfare society in the countryside, including its institutional, economic and social aspects. As the speaker noted, the XVIII CPC Congress confirmed the strategic course for the complete construction of a "small welfare" society by 2020, put forward by the XVI CPC Congress. The area where achieving the Xiaokang society's target criteria by 2020 will prove to be the most challenging and challenging will be China's agriculture.

Although serious progress has been made in the agricultural sector over the past decade, however, fundamental changes in the socio-economic situation of the village have not yet occurred. The deep gap in the income level and quality of life of urban and rural populations has not been narrowed.

L. A. Volkova, Ph. D. in Economics, continued the theme of the development of the Chinese village with the report "XVIII CPC Congress on the country's agrarian problems". It follows from her report that, having entered the crucial stage of fully building a "small welfare society" by 2020, China has set the following tasks for the agricultural sector::

- accelerating the transformation of the economic development model;

- creation of a new type of economic system in the agricultural sector that ensures sustainable production growth;

- specialization and efficiency improvement in the process of expanding the scale of the economy;

- ability to solve social problems.

11The necessity of accelerating the modernization of the industry, its informatization, and rural urbanization is confirmed. Thus, the demands put forward by the previous XVI and XVII CPC Congresses are mostly preserved. What is relatively new is a greater emphasis on the need for mutual coordination of modernization and urbanization, more effective coherence in the development of cities and villages, while promoting social harmony.

Environmental issues were presented by the report of Candidate of Economic Sciences E. I. Kranina"China accelerates the construction of an ecological civilization". The speaker noted that in an effort to mitigate the critical situation, the country's leadership has placed the environment in one of the most important, strategic places in state policy. In order to improve the environment in the next 5 years, a gross volume control indicator has been added to the program of the 12th five-year plan for environmental protection

polluting substances. Since February 1, 2012, the capital of China has switched to the Euro-5 energy consumption standard in the expectation that this measure will help reduce the level of harmful emissions by 30-50%. For the first time, a separate chapter is devoted to environmental issues in the report of Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, to the XVIII CPC Congress: "Promote eco-cultural construction in every possible way." It mentions the "concept of ecological civilization based on the protection of nature".

Legal aspects of socio-economic transformations of the PRC in the light of recent party decisions were considered by Candidate of Law P. V. Troshchinsky. According to the speaker, at the XVIII CPC Congress, the Chinese Party and state leadership defined the main goals and objectives of the country's socio-economic development in the coming years. Some economic indicators indicate the need for a deeper and more targeted reform of some areas of public life in the country.

The Chinese state faces many internal and external threats, which put the new generation of Chinese leaders before the need to find more effective ways of socio-economic development. At the same time, there is a need to support the ongoing reforms with the adoption of a number of regulatory legal acts aimed at improving the investment, innovation, and administrative climate both within the country and protecting China's interests abroad. Without the creation of perfect legal mechanisms, successful reform of the country's socio-economic sphere is impossible. It is no coincidence that the place of law and the rule of law in China's modernization development was given the closest attention at the last congress.

In addition, the success of economic reforms seriously depends on the political will of the Chinese leadership to fight corruption, which is the" cancer " of modern China. According to the speaker, this demonstrates the important role of legislation in improving the efficiency of public administration, the success of ongoing reforms in the social and economic spheres of China.

The report "Informatization in the PRC" was delivered by A. V. Pikover. The speaker noted that the main slogan of China's development policy, which has been implemented since the late 1970s, is "modernization", one of the directions of which is the informatization of all aspects of society. A Working group on informatization was formed, which was headed by Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council.

China has the world's leading number of registered Internet users (564 million, or 42.1%), with the majority (420 million) of users logged in using mobile devices. Alibaba, the largest online trading platform, is also a Chinese one.

In order to improve the quality of human capital in order to build a harmonious society, the leadership of the PRC, as well as business, will continue to intensify the country's informatization, rightly considering it one of the most effective methods of achieving its goals. China is looking for a new place in the world order, and one of the means of competing for resources is the information sphere.

The problem of exporting Chinese capital abroad was highlighted by T. G. Terentyeva in her report "The XVIII Congress of the CPC: a course for activating the policy of openness". The speaker noted that investing abroad is becoming one of the most important areas in China's policy. In the global capital market, China is positioned not only as a recipient of investments, but also as a major exporter of them. The country's policy of openness has been and continues to be a determining factor in the growth of capital outflows. Against this background, many experts speak of the so-called "Chinese model" of foreign investment. The main features of this model are: 1) the unprecedented annual growth of Chinese investment (20-50% in 2003-2012); 2) the fact that a significant part of investment is carried out by large state-owned companies, and in the volume of accumulated direct investment abroad, the state accounts for approximately 70%; 3) the concentration of Chinese direct investment in Hong Kong (about 70%).

I. V. Vakhrushin, Ph. D. in Economics, presented the latest report at the section on industry economics, "Tasks and Prospects for the development of the stock market of the People's Republic of China after the XVIII CPC Congress". According to the speaker, the XVIII CPC Congress decided to deepen financial reforms and further improve and liberalize the country's stock market as an integral part of the financial sector. Among the priority areas for the development of the securities market, the speaker referred to a further increase in the investment quota for qualified foreign institutional investors and acceleration of the preparatory process for launching the listing of foreign securities on the stock exchanges of the People's Republic of China.

After discussing the problems and prospects for the development of the Chinese economy in the light of the decisions of the XVIII CPC Congress, the conference participants concluded that the new "fifth generation" of Chinese leaders, led by Xi Jinping, will adhere to the course pursued by their predecessors in almost all areas. This is a course aimed at deepening reforms, moving from the model of an export-oriented economy to a model focused on the domestic market; from investment development of the economy to innovative development. The course is aimed at solving environmental, demographic and energy problems. All this indicates a high chance of achieving the goal of building a "small prosperity" society outlined by the XVIII CPC Congress by 2020.

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