V. G. GELBRAS

Doctor of Historical Sciences

Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Keywords: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, geo-economic strategy, land belt of the Silk Road, sea route of the Silk Road of the XXI century

The years 2013 - 2015 are characterized by an unprecedented international activity of the country's top leadership in the recent history of China. During the first 1,000 days of his tenure in the highest party and state posts, Xi Jinping visited 33 countries and held talks with 100 leaders from different countries. Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have been engaged in intensive foreign trips to discuss the development of political and economic relations with their partners. The negotiations resulted in a significant expansion of China's foreign economic relations.

In this regard, China's geo-economic strategy is of particular interest.

The geo-economic strategy is a kind of long-term guiding dominant that determines the direction of the country's development. Perhaps there is nothing more important than the development of an effective strategy that determines the logic of all subsequent actions of the authorities, as well as the totality of political and economic structures that unite and coordinate their activities. The actions of the Chinese leadership in the international arena indicate the completion of the development of such a strategy.

A strategy cannot be developed or reconstructed outside the general ideological, political, economic, social and cultural context of a given country. The main thing in this complex field of life is to determine the goal that can, like a powerful magnet, ensure the consolidation of society, its active attitude, the initiative of its most capable forces.

IDEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL GOAL

For a century, Chinese revolutionaries have been pushing for the rebirth of China. Having passed a thorny path of trial and error in their activities, they managed to bring the country to the top of the world economy. The time has come to set new development benchmarks.

The goal matured during decades of" reform and opening up", the concentration of all the forces of the country to boost the economy. Everything was subordinated to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). The increase in GDP has acquired, as they sometimes say in China, even a mystical meaning, if you convey the meaning of the Chinese concept of "SBRzhui" - the mania of GDP.

On November 29, 2012, shortly after the end of the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), members of the new Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee visited the National Museum in full force. They began their tour with an exhibition of tragic pages in the history of the Opium Wars. The victory of the People's Liberation Revolution created the political foundations for the revival of the country and the nation.

The path to the goal is found, according to Xi Jinping, in the difficult search for a policy of " reform and openness." Indeed, as a result of incredible efforts, historic results have been achieved. The scale of China's economy has given the country the 2nd place in the world ranking of economic giants. The material base has been created to become a world leader.

Calling for "understanding China", Xi Jinping, speaking at the 3rd plenum of the CPC Central Committee, said: "The Chinese people are engaged in the persistent implementation of the "two centuries" combat mission and the Chinese dream of the great revival of the Chinese nation"¹. The Chinese dream is basically no different from the cherished thoughts of any nation about living in peace, prosperity, health and well-being. The goal of "two centuries" is an integral part of the Chinese image of the future. The first refers to the period of armed suppression, plunder, and humiliation of the nation during the first half of the 19th and many decades of the 20th centuries. Under the second - the period from the emergence of the Communist Party of China to

1921 to 2020 This is what the Chinese dream is all about, building a "low-income" society.

Alas, tsarist Russia was not very different from the other enslavers of China. The border problems of Russia and China created by past treaties were resolved during negotiations. However, China remembers that tsarist Russia, in a coalition with Britain and the United States, participated in the suppression of the Yihetuan (boxers)uprising². Russian soldiers then stormed Beijing. Behind them, British, American and Japanese units entered the city. The bacchanal of looting the city began. Nicholas II, having learned about the outrages in the city, ordered the withdrawal of Russian units from it. But they left their mark.

Nicholas II considered whether to annex Manchuria to Russia, but did not dare to take this action, fearing the reaction of Great Britain. Russia received its share of the huge contribution. It also received the rights to the CER zone.

History has always been remembered in China.

In the conditions of the XXI century, it is hardly possible to think about the implementation of the "two centuries" combat task in the spirit of the past, but China will strive to implement this task in a different way.

CHINA'S ECONOMIC SITUATION

More than 30 years of unrestrained race for the leader-the United States has yielded results. The country has developed a strong multi-industry economy focused on export. These achievements required the exertion of all the forces of the country and the attraction of foreign capital.

Chinese products have appeared in almost all countries of Europe, Asia, America, Africa, and Oceania.

One of the consequences of the global crisis was a slowdown in the development of the leading countries of America, Europe and Asia. The global market for Chinese goods suddenly narrowed and, as the leading countries emerged from the crisis, began to change qualitatively. New sources of growth, new needs, new desires, new products have emerged.

In China, significant excess production capacity has been created in almost all industries. The time has come to find new markets, new sources of growth, modernize industry ("new type of industrialization"), and develop all sectors of the economy.

Without curtailing export production, since 2008 the center of gravity in development has been shifted to solving domestic problems. To this end, a set of measures has been implemented: increasing the population's income, building real estate, transport infrastructure, developing education, health care, and creating a social security system. For many reasons, the economy's growth rate has slowed.

Considerable progress has been made in all areas of the country's development in 2008-2014. However, the problems associated with excess production capacity, the search for new scientific and technical sources of growth, as well as the continuation of export production were not resolved.

It turned out:

- the domestic market creates insufficiently powerful impulses for industrial development;

- regional economic and social differentiation of the country's territory hinders the development of the common economic space;

- the increase in income and purchasing power of the population in this state of the economy cannot be rapid;

- considerable efforts should be made to overcome the large differences in the level and living conditions of urban and rural populations;

- the successful development of the country is hindered by the fact that a large number of people with a relatively low level of cultural and technical training remain in the population. The rise of education requires a significant increase in the staff of teachers, schools, universities, manuals, and the creation of modern training programs;

- the nation needs to develop health care, social security, social insurance, which require a major restructuring of modern structures, etc.;

- the rapid process of population aging has created new problems.

All these problems began to determine the agenda of the management's activities. The material base for this was created.

During the entire period of" reform and openness", GDP grew at an exceptionally high rate. In 1979-2014, its size increased 28 times!

To eliminate excess capacity, structural adjustment and modernization of the industry began, which required large investments. Some of the enterprises were to be closed, some were to be upgraded, and the advanced part was to be developed rapidly. In the new situation, a reduction in growth rates has become inevitable. At the same time, there is a qualitative change in individual industries and the economy as a whole.

Against this background, the processes of 2008 - 2014 stand out. During this period, actual investment in fixed assets increased from 18.3 trillion yuan in 2008 to 53.1 trillion yuan in 2014. This means that they have increased by 2.9 times. In the same years, the GDP used grew ² times3.

Table

End-use structure of GDP, 2005-2014

Source: 2015. Zhongguo tongji nianjian (2015. Chinese Statistical Yearbook). Electronic version. Table 3-14.

The dynamics of these indicators indicate that investment in fixed assets is growing faster than GDP growth.

The task of a new stage of development is complicated by a whole complex of problems. Huge investments were required throughout the entire reform and opening-up phase to create a powerful production facility that ensures the growth of export resources.

In the 2000s, 40-46% of GDP was used for the formation of fixed capital. As the volume of expenditures on the development of export production increased, there was an inevitable reduction in attention to domestic problems, including the standard of living of the population. Up to now, China has the largest share of GDP allocated to the formation of fixed capital in comparison with other countries in the world.

The final consumption of the population is a little more than 50% of GDP, including the share of the rural population accounts for only a little more than 10% of GDP.

The share of final consumption of the population in GDP during 2008-2014 did not exceed 36-38% (see Table). With GDP growth, the absolute size of consumption changed dynamically, while maintaining the progressive dynamics.

At the same time, the gap in the volume of consumption of peasants and townspeople was narrowing. In 2005, urban consumption was 3.5 times higher than that of farmers. At the same time, the peasants made up the absolute majority of the population. By 2014, the share of the rural population had declined. The ratio of urban and rural population has changed in favor of a small predominance of urban residents. As a result, in 2014, urban consumption exceeded rural consumption by 2.9 times.

In reality, the financial situation of citizens remains much higher than that of peasants. Urban residents, who have more stable incomes, enjoy a whole system of social benefits that remain inaccessible to rural residents.

The focus on the domestic market and the expansion of consumer consumption have at times outpaced GDP growth. Its growth rate began to noticeably decline (see chart).

The growth of household incomes began to cause an increase in production costs. There was a danger of withdrawal of foreign capital from the country. Indeed, some foreign firms have begun to gradually move production to other countries, but they have not caused a turnaround, and capital inflows continue. Foreign capital investment in China is increasing, with the majority of it going to the service sector.

Perestroika and reforms are accompanied by a continuous increase in the money supply (M2). Over the past decade, it has been growing at a rate far faster than GDP growth. The threat of inflation is contained by active government measures.

Chart. Dynamics of GDP and consumption of the population, 2005-2014

Source: 2015 Zhongguo tongji nianjian (2015. Chinese Statistical Yearbook). Electronic version. Table 3-18.

In order to maintain economic growth, increase employment and domestic demand in the country, the construction of real estate, railways and highways, and new airports was launched on an unprecedented scale. While maintaining its previous markets in North America, Europe, and other countries, China has begun to explore new markets in Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.

In a complex domestic and international environment, China's top leadership analyzed the political and economic activities of previous years.

One of the most important results of this activity, as can be seen from the events of 2013-2014, was the decisions of the 11th ministerial conference within the framework of the Regional Economic Cooperation Program in Central Asia (RECA).

RECA includes: China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. On October 31, 2012, these ten countries adopted the Wuhan Action Plan. It aims to accelerate the implementation of the RECA-2020 strategy and, through cooperation in such areas as transport, trade policy and energy, build the "transport corridor" in Central Asia to the rank of an "economic corridor". Thus, the 15-year discussion of the Trans-Asian railway project ended. In the second half of 2012, China started the practical implementation of the China - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan railway project.

In September 2012, Wen Jiabao, then Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, delivered a report on "Restoring the Greatness of the Great Silk Road"in Urumqi⁴. Even then, the "Great Silk Road" meant the construction of the China - Kyrgyzstan - Uzbekistan - Tajikistan - Afghanistan - Iran - Turkey - Europe railway. The road was planned to be built by 2010. Preparatory work was launched for this purpose5.

In the report, Wen Jiabao stressed "the need for stronger determination, stronger measures" to comprehensively expand mutually beneficial cooperation in all areas, strengthen the internal driving forces of development in the region for the benefit of the peoples of all countries in Asia and Europe. The industrialization of Xinjiang unfolded. In 2012 alone, more than 1,000 enterprises were transferred here.

Based on the results and experience of the past, Xi Jinping launched a set of initiatives in 2013 and 2014 that consolidated the content of a fundamentally new geo-economic strategy of the country:

- increase capital exports;

- accelerate the creation of a new open economic system on a global scale; start this process by creating economic complexes on its own territory, creating free trade zones within the country and at the same time at the international level;

- to revive and develop the economic space of the land Silk Road ("dai") and the sea Silk Road ("lu"), called the "yi dai yi lu"strategy;

- gradually convert the renminbi (yuan) into one of the freely convertible international currencies;

- Create an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

EXPORT OF CAPITAL

China started exporting capital in the 1990s. In recent years, Chinese companies have expanded their investment activities abroad, using all the well-known areas of investment: direct and portfolio, financial and non-financial, and

also intellectual investments. Direct and portfolio investments are often preceded by a set of concessional or gratuitous loans, contracts, promotions, construction projects, and various services.

In 2008 - 2009, there was a rapid increase in foreign investment by Chinese companies. It was characterized by the disorderly buying up of depreciated assets, bankrupt firms, cheapened shares, etc.

The Government quickly put things in order, setting clear guidelines for investment activities. From now on, it is focused on acquiring deposits of natural resources that China needs, successful profitable companies, well-known brands, firms with the latest achievements in technology and technology, and innovative companies. Investment activity has spread all over the world.

The scale of foreign investment by non-financial organizations in China is gradually increasing. For 1990-1995. they amounted to $14.21 billion, and $10.28 billion in 1996-2000. Over the next five years, they have increased 3-fold to $30.21 billion. In 2006-2012, foreign investment reached almost $88 billion.⁶

The total volume of foreign direct investment, as of the end of 2013, was $660.48 billion.⁷ In terms of their volume, China has moved from 13th to 11th place in the world. In 2013-2014 capital exports continued. In 2014, the volume of foreign investments reached $107.84 billion.⁸ They increased by 22.8% over the year, with an average global growth of 1.4%. China has become a leader among capital exporters.

Financial investments have reached a large scale. After the beginning of the global economic crisis, they were used, in particular, to support the economic recovery of countries that were the main consumers of Chinese products. One of the ways of such support was the acquisition of government debt obligations.

China has become one of the largest creditors of the United States. In total, as of September 2012, China held $1.154 trillion in U.S. debt securities.⁹ Thus, Beijing surpassed Tokyo in this indicator, which was equal to $1.13 trillion on the same date. At the end of October of the same year, the size of the US government debt to major foreign creditors was $5.4822 trillion. Consequently, China accounted for 21% in 2012. Together with Japan, their share exceeded 40% of the US national debt. By the end of February 2015, US debt obligations reached approximately $6.1628 trillion. China also began to reduce purchases of US government bonds. According to the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, by March 2015, the US debt to China had decreased to $1.22 trillion.

Foreign direct investment has come to the fore. In the last two years, their growth rates have been many times higher than the growth of capital imports. The State Council of the People's Republic of China decided to allocate $ 1 trillion for export over 10 years, i.e. $100 billion each. annually - 2 times more than in recent years.

Up to 2014, 15.3 thousand Chinese investors were engaged in the export of capital. In 2014-2015, 90% of restrictions were lifted, and the procedure for registering and approving capital exports was simplified. As a result, the number of exporters can be expected to increase markedly.

The investment strategy has changed. In accordance with the instructions of the management, there is a gradual transition from the acquisition of firms, factories, deposits to package investments.

The goal is to gain access to foreign innovations in equipment and technologies, to the directions and research results of leading companies, i.e. to the basic conditions for the future growth of individual industries and the economy as a whole.

TOWARDS A NEW OPEN ECONOMIC SYSTEM

Speaking at the 19th collective seminar of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee on December 6, 2014, Xi Jinping stressed the importance of accelerating the implementation of the strategy of creating free trade zones, as this will create a new open economic system (emphasis added). According to him, free trade zones are an important platform through which China will have the opportunity to participate in the development of international trade and economic rules and have institutional rights to manage the global economy.¹⁰

On behalf of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, the State Development and Reform Committee, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce published a joint report entitled "The Aspirations and Reality of joint promotion of the Silk Road Economic space and the Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century"¹¹. The document presents a scheme for allocating individual regions of China according to their role in implementing the yi dai yi lu strategy (one of the most important projects in the world). space, one path).

Let us present the content of scheme 1, which clearly reflects the plan of the mentioned bodies. Let us state the disposition in the direction from east to west.

Diagram 1. The role of individual regions of China in the implementation of the "yi dai yi hi" strategy.

Источник: http://blog.sina.com.cn/blog_e9924e460102vekl.html

The provinces of the Northeast, including Beijing, are oriented to the north, more precisely-to Russia.

The provinces of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are planned to form routes to the states of Central, South, and West Asia, as well as serve as a base for trade and material exchange, important industries, and humanitarian exchange. However, it should be noted that at present almost all of these provinces are among the most economically undeveloped.

Xinjiang is supposed to be the center of the economic space of the overland Silk Road. In the report mentioned above, Wen Jiabao said: "Xinjiang will become an outpost for developing mutually beneficial cooperation between China and all countries in Asia and Europe, especially with neighboring countries." In June 2014, Zhang Chunxian, a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee and party secretary of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region), echoed Wen Jiabao and said that the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has a special place in the Silk Road economic belt, playing "an important role as an outpost in the implementation of the strategy of opening up to the west."

He announced that efforts will be made to make XUAR the main driving force and vanguard in the construction of the Silk Road economic space: "It is necessary to turn XUAR, first, into a regional transport hub; second, into a regional trade and economic logistics center; third, into a regional financial center, fourth, to the regional cultural and scientific-educational center; fifth, to the regional center for medical services; sixth, to the "three strong points and one corridor" of the country's energy resources"¹².

In the coastal regions of China, Fujian Province is planned as the center of the"Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century". All seaside cities are declared the vanguard and an important force of the "Maritime Silk Road of the XXI century". Maritime provinces occupy an extremely large place in the national economy of China. About 90% of imports and exports of goods in foreign trade, 95% of crude oil imports and 90% of iron ore are carried out by sea13.

Guanxi Province is the gateway to the organic economic space of the Silk Road and the "Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century".

Yunnan Province is planned as a center facing South and Southeast Asia. It is one of the most underdeveloped provinces and has been rapidly industrializing in recent years.

In China, the creation of experimental free trade zones has begun. The Government approved their development plan. The pioneers were pilot zones in the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and Tianjin. The Shanghai Special Pilot Economic Zone has been expanded.

The Guangdong Zone is designed to promote economic integration with the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions. The Fujian Zone is focused on close economic cooperation with Taiwan. Fujian Province is also considered as a "central Asian region".-

Map 1. Land and sea routes of the Silk Road.

Источник: http://jiansu.china.com.cn/html/jsncws/36977_2.html

14. The Tianjin Zone is intended for economic integration with Beijing and Hebei Province.

Free trade zones have been created in 20 regions of the world, and preparations are underway in 31 countries and territories. 12 agreements have been signed with ASEAN, Singapore, Pakistan, New Zealand, Switzerland, Iceland, Chile, and Peru.

A free trade agreement was signed with the Republic of Korea and Australia. Prospects for economic integration through agreements between Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo, creating a Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (RCEP)*, are discussed. It is considered in Beijing as part of a global strategy to create a free trade area in the Asia-Pacific region. Feasibility studies are being prepared for the development of free trade zones with India, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka.

These processes allowed the authors of the report "Competitiveness of Asia-2015", distributed within the framework of the "Boao Asian Forum-2015", to conclude that the time is ripe for the creation of a Free trade Area of the Asia-Pacific region (FTA APR)¹⁵.

The authors justify their conclusion with a number of considerations. First, the role of emerging market economies as engines of global economic growth is being strengthened, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where China and the ASEAN countries are increasing their potential, closing the gap with developed countries. Second, Asia-Pacific countries are united by an understanding of the need to build a better multilateral trading system. Third, as the degree of economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region increases, an FTA is required as an institutional guarantee. Fourth, free trade zones created or being created in the Asia-Pacific region in bilateral, multilateral or sub-regional formats can, to a certain extent, constitute an organizational framework for the formation of a region-wide FTA.

THE "YI DAI YI LU"STRATEGY

The "yi dai yi lu" strategy in China refers, as already mentioned, to the "land economic space of the Silk Road" and the "maritime economic route of the Silk road of the XXI century".

The implementation of the "Silk Road land economic belt" involves the creation of several hundred infrastructure projects: railways and highways, energy facilities, industrial parks. Several economic spaces are to be created in China.

Land and sea routes are summarized on map 1. A thick line marks the land routes of the Silk Road. They start from the territory of South Korea, pass through China, Asian countries, Turkey, and South Korea. -

* RCEP - a future multilateral free trade agreement that includes China, the Republic of Korea, Japan, the 10 ASEAN countries, as well as India, Australia, and New Zealand.

Map 2. Kra-channel project.

resekayut countries of Southern Europe. A branch from one of them goes to the Suez Canal. Thin (straight) lines mark key points on sea routes: the Suez Canal, the Kra Canal (still to be built) (see map 2), and the Panama Canal.

The Panama Canal is being reconstructed. It was initiated by the Chinese business structures that manage the channel. In 2005, the key ports of the San Cristobal and Balboa Canal were transferred for 25 years to the management of a Hong Kong company, part of the holding of one of China's richest men, Li Kangsheng. Its division operates the railway between Balboa and San Cristobal.

The idea of building a Krakanal in Thailand dates back to 1677. ¹⁶ Its creation will be an alternative to the Strait of Malacca.

The canal will open up new sea routes in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as access to the Indian Ocean. It will provide new horizons for the development of Thailand, the ASEAN member States, Asia, Oceania, the Indian Ocean regions, and finally the entire global economy. Hong Kong media reported that China and Thailand had signed a memorandum on the project. The construction of the canal by Chinese specialists with Chinese money and the support of the Chinese government will open a very sensitive new historical page in the life of Thailand.

Practical actions of the Chinese leadership to ensure the most favorable routes of communication between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are also important. China is lobbying for the construction of a powerful Grand Nicaraguan Canal, a competitor to the Panama Canal (see map 3).

There are several possible routes for this channel. The project is currently being developed. Reported by,

Map 3. The Grand Nicaraguan Canal Project.

Scheme 2. High-speed railways.

Источник: http://finance.ifeng.com/news/shecial/gaotie/index.shtml

that China received a 100-year concession from Nicaragua for the construction and operation of the canal. As Hong Kong businessman Wang Jing, head of HKND, said,"We have not only signed a memorandum of understanding, we are working on the final preparations for concluding irrevocable contracts." ¹⁷

In Colombia, the Chinese initiated the construction of a railway from the Colombian Pacific coast to a new city to be built south of Cartagena on the Caribbean coast in the northwestern part of the country. The main investor, according to media reports, will be Chinese Development Bank (China Development Bank). He prepared a justification for the investment. The Chinese company China Railway Group will perform construction work and operate the railway.

Premier Li Keqiang initiated the high-speed rail plan. Its idea is shown in diagram 2.

The plan consists of four trans-State high-speed rail lines.

From east to west, the map shows the following high-speed routes::

- China-Russia-Canada-USA. The highway starts in northeast China, crosses Siberia, goes to the Bering Strait, crosses it through an underwater tunnel, then passes through Alaska to Canada and finishes in the United States.

- Pan-Asian Highway. Start in Kunming (prov. Yunnan, China) - Vietnam-Kampuchea-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore.

- China-Asia Highway. Start in the mountains. Urumqi (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China) - Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan - Iran-Turkey - Germany.

- European highway. It starts from Manchuria station (China), then Khabarovsk-Kazakhstan-Moscow-Warsaw-Berlin-Paris-London.

After the signing of the agreement on the construction of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed highway (the project cost is 1 trillion rubles), China considered creating the Moscow-Beijing high-speed highway, as well as the Khorgos (Chinese border city on the border with Kazakhstan) - Kazakhstan - Kazan highway. In this case, there may be a continuous high-speed highway Lianyungang (port on the Yellow Sea, China) - Lanzhou - Urumqi - Khorgos - Kazakhstan-Kazan.

So far, a total of 21 pairs of freight trains run regularly between cities in China and Europe, according to Internet reports.¹⁸ Thus, the international transit trains Zhengzhou (Henan Province, China) - Hamburg were launched in July 2013. Since July 2015, the route has introduced two pairs of trains per week. Direct freight international rail service to Kunming (Yunnan Province, China) was launched in July 2015 - Rotterdam. Until the end of the year, two trains a month will run along this route. There doesn't seem to be a need for China to push its products to Europe on a larger scale right now.

The question arises: how high is the intensity of industrial relations and human flows, and is it able to ensure the profitability of the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway?

CONVERTING THE YUAN INTO A FREELY CONVERTIBLE INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY

The renminbi's share of global payments is gradually growing, although perhaps not as fast as Beijing plans.

The policy of promoting the yuan as an international currency began relatively recently. It seems that it was motivated by long and fruitless negotiations with the US government to revalue the Chinese currency. The creation of currency pairs with the participation of the yuan and their rapid increase allow China to reduce the risks of the impact of the US currency on its economy. At the same time, the risks of a significant strengthening of the national currency for exports are reduced. However, the small number of currency pairs with the Chinese yuan allowed the Americans to influence the dollar - yuan ratio by various measures. Objectively, there was only one way out for Beijing: the maximum acceleration of the number of currency pairs, the transition to the direct use of the yuan in international payments, and the recognition of the yuan as a reserve currency.

The creation of free trade zones has a direct impact on the growth of currency pairs with the Chinese yuan and the growth of world trade using the Chinese national currency.

Until recently, one of the main obstacles to the establishment of the yuan as a reserve currency was directly related to the implementation of the global economic strategy. For a number of years, China has maintained a huge current account surplus as a result of its export promotion policies. In other words, a barrier was created to the free international exchange of goods.

The authorities invested the surpluses generated by the surplus in the US dollar, which actually acted as a savings bank. Indeed, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $1 trillion in 2006, $2 trillion in 2009, and $3 trillion in 2011. In June 2014, foreign exchange reserves reached $3.99 trillion ¹⁹.

Recently, there has been a turning point in this policy. The Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce of China, Yu Jianlong, at a press conference of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held on March 25, 2015, announced the creation of a series of platforms for working to promote imports. The focus will be on promoting imports from countries along the Belt and Road initiative. Domestic enterprises are encouraged and encouraged to invest in processing and production in these countries and expand imports of processed products.²⁰

This is a rather peculiar way to extend the import. However, as China begins to encourage imports, there may be a period of gradual transition to free flows of goods, and at the same time, the formation of a balance of payments deficit.

FORMATION OF THE ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT BANK

The formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was Xi Jinping's idea. The initiative has received support from many countries. By mid-April 2015, 57 countries had become founding members - 36 in Asia and Oceania and 21 in Europe, Latin America and Africa. ²¹

Many Chinese and international experts see the AIIB's establishment as a financial instrument for the construction of the "One Belt, One Road"project. The AIIB is headquartered in Beijing. China also has the largest share in the bank's assets.

Few people paid attention to Xi Jinping's words about the AIIB's future role. "Creating a bank," he said, "will help improve global financial governance, which is very important." ²²

Chen Xiaochen, a fellow at the Zhongyang Institute of Financial Studies at the People's University of China, found it necessary to correct experts who believed that the AIIB is a tool that embodies the Chinese concept of "one belt, one road". No, he writes, "The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is an intergovernmental multilateral financial institution, a platform for international governance in which China participates, and an international good that China brings not only to Asia, but to the whole world." ²³

The expert accurately presented the position of Xi Jinping. It clearly develops the concept of China's top leader on the need to create an open economic system, in which China will have the opportunity to participate in the development of international trade and economic rules and have institutional rights to manage the global economy.

* * *

Export of capital, creation of a "new open economic system on a global scale".

building the economic space of the land Silk Road and the "Maritime Silk Road of the XXI Century", activities to transform the yuan into one of the most important freely convertible world currencies, and initiating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - these are the most important long-term directions in Beijing's economic policy that have a common goal and are focused on achieving a single result. This unity suggests that the Chinese authorities are guided by a special geo-economic strategy.

The presented reconstruction of China's geo-economic strategy examines the concept with a minimal overview of specific actions of Chinese organizations, as well as other countries, and possible positive and negative factors in the course of their implementation. Their analysis is a special topic.

The meaning of a geo-economic strategy can be judged right now. Its reconstruction demonstrates China's claim to create a global system of economic superiority. Given China's tactics of using its loans, machinery, technologies, production materials, various services, and labor for the implementation of infrastructure and other projects, it is not difficult to conclude that the projects proposed for creation can provide extremely favorable conditions for the country's further economic development.

The strategy is economically beneficial for China. It will contribute to the rapid economic development of the underdeveloped regions of western and central China, and will maximize the sales markets of the country's export complex. At the same time, structures are being created to control the global movement of capital, goods, services, and people. This will create a real presence of China in the vast expanses of the globe. The participating countries of the Chinese project are also closely related to the existing technical and technological level of development in China. China's geo-economic strategy is actually aimed at creating a global system of active confrontation between the US and the EU. Objectively, it also serves to restrain the economic development of Russia and the EAEU. The interplay of development strategies of the EAEU and the Silk Road economic space is in fact poorly visible. China's geo-economic strategy is clearly based on the inclusion of Russia and the EAEU in the land Silk Road project.

¹ Xi Jinping: Xan Zhun Quan Hui jiang tichu zonghe gaigc fangan zongti bushu quanmian shenhua gaige (Xi Jinping: The 3rd Plenum of the CPC Central Committee will put forward a draft general plan for comprehensive deepening of reforms) - http://economy.caijing.com.cn/2013 - 11-02/113513751. html

² See, for example: Shirokorad A. B. Russia and China. Conflicts and Cooperation, Moscow, Veche Publ., 2004.

³ 2015 Zhongguo tongji zhaiyao/China Statistical Abstract. P. 34, 77.

⁴ Wen Jiabao: Development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is the key to stability - http:russian.news.cn/chaina/2012-09/06/c_131830952.htm

⁵ China plans to build a direct Central Asian Railway by 2010 http://russian/peopledaily.com.cn/31518/6537132.html

⁶ Shangyubu, Guojia tongjuju, Guojia waihui guangliju lianghe fabu "2013 nian Zgongguo dui wai zhijie touzi tongji gongbao" (Ministry of Commerce, State Statistical Office, State Monetary Office jointly publish " China's Overseas Investment Statistical Report 2013) - http://mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ai/201409/2014091409007250... This report was published on September 9, 2014. Later, on behalf of the State Committee for Development and Reforms and the Ministry of Trade, a different indicator of foreign direct investment was named - $102.9 billion, which is 14.1% more than the previous year. This later figure is used below.

⁷ Ibid.

⁸ 2015. Zhongguo tongji nianjian. Tables 6-18 (electronic version).

⁹ The US national debt to China increased by $7.9 billion. -http://www.chinapro.ru/rubrics/1/8761/

¹⁰ Xi Jinping urged to speed up the implementation of the free trade zone strategy - http://russian.gtws.cn/china/2014 - 12/06/c_133837159.htm

¹¹ Tuigung gung jian sitiao zhi lu jingji dai he 21 shiji haishan sitiao zhi lu de yuanjing yui xingdung (Aspirations and actions for joint construction of the Silk Road economic space and the maritime Silk Road of the XXI century)- http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_e9924e460102vekl.html

¹² Zhang Chunxian's speech at the International Symposium - http://russian.china.org.cn/exclusive/txt/2014 -06/26 / content_32...

¹³ Construction of the Maritime Silk Road - http://russian.china.irg/cn/exclusive/txt/2015 -02/13 / content_34...

¹⁴ http://blog.sina.com.en/s/blog_e9924e460102vekl.html

¹⁵ The time has come to create a free trade zone in the Asia-Pacific region-report of the Boao Asian Forum 2015 http://russian.china.org.cn/efclusive/txt/2015 - 03/27/content_35165755.htm

¹⁶ The Kra Canal Project: New Gateway to Maritime Silk Road - http://www.kracanalmaritimessilkroad.com/

^{Channel 17} in Nicaragua-Chinese alternative to Panama -http://finance.ramber/economics/145184341.htm

¹⁸ Korean and Japanese goods depart from Zhengzhou to Hamburg - http://www.chinapro.ru/rubrics/1/12776/

¹⁹ 6 yue wo guo vaihuichubei zengzhi 3.99 wanyi meiyuan -http://www.gov.cn/2014 - 07/16/content_2717935.htm

²⁰ The International Chamber of Commerce of China will fully promote imports from countries along the "One Belt, One Road" - http://russian.china.org.cn/exclusive/txt/2015 - 03/27/content_35174131.htm

²¹ For more information, see: Yushshin V. V., Pavlov V. V. Asiatic Bank of Infrastructural Investments / / Asia and Africa Today. 2015, N 12. (Klishin V.V., Pavlov V.V. 2015. Aziatskiy bank infrastruk turnykh investitsiy // Azia i Afrika segodnya. N 12) (in Russian)

²² Annual Review / Background: China's efforts to promote the Global Economy in 2014 - http://russian.news.cn/economic/2014 - 12/31/с_133890515.htm

²³ Expert: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank should not be considered a counting chip of "One Belt, One Road" - http://russian.jrg.cn/exclusive/txt/2015 - 07/05/content_35985033.htm

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