The most important problem for the modern Chinese leadership, which was reflected in the materials of the 17th CPC Congress (October 2007), was and remains the problem of peaceful reunification of Taiwan on the basis of the "one country, two systems"principle.

Yu. CHUDODEEV

Candidate of Historical Sciences

The problem is not new, but it is very acute and painful not only for Beijing and Taipei, but also for the international community, especially the leading powers of the Asia-Pacific region (the United States, Japan, and Russia). The Taiwan Island area is a strategically important geopolitical and economic center of East Asia, and the Taiwan Strait is a busy transport artery used by many ships and airliners from various countries around the world.

The ambiguity of relations between China and Taiwan, and most importantly, Beijing's statements about the possibility of using force against the Taipei regime are considered in the United States, Japan and Western countries as a threat to international security in the region. Therefore, it is quite natural that the international community has shown interest in new developments in bilateral Sino-Taiwanese relations that have emerged recently, in particular, after the speeches of Chinese President Hu Jintao and the President of the Republic of China (officially Taiwan), who was elected in March 2008 Ma Ying-ju*.

"REBELLIOUS PROVINCE"

The Taiwan problem is one of the unresolved problems of the 20th century. Its history goes back about 60 years. In the autumn of 1949, the Government of the Republic of China, led by Chiang Kai-shek (Jiang Tse-shih), leader of the ruling National Party (Kuomintang), after being defeated on the continent by the armed forces created by the Communist Party, relocated to Taiwan and continued its existence there, declaring the island a place of "temporary residence of the central government of China". In 1948-1949, together with Chiang Kai-shek, Taiwan was flooded with up to two million people. In Taiwan, martial law was imposed and the Kuomintang dictatorship was established, with the goal of creating a strong, nationalistic, authoritarian State. The People's Republic of China was declared a "communist uprising zone"by the Kuomintang. Taipei began to claim the role of the government of the whole of China, retaining the name "Republic of China" and taking an extremely hostile position towards Beijing. In turn, Beijing has not recognized the legitimacy of the existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan, saying that Taiwan is a "rebellious province" of China.

Since the evacuation of Kuomintang leaders to Taiwan in 1949, the term "Republic of China" has been applied to the territory under the de facto jurisdiction of the Taiwanese authorities. It includes the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Jin-men, Matsu, as well as a number of other small islands (86 in total).

From the east coast of the People's Republic of China (in Taiwanese jargon - mainland China) - Fujian Province - the island is separated by the Taiwan Strait with a width of 130 to 220 km and is approximately equidistant from Shanghai and Hong Kong. The islands of Mazu and Jinmen are only 2-3 km1 away from ^the coast. Taiwan currently has a population of 22.82 million people (98% of them are ethnic Chinese).

Starting in the 1980s, the political and socio-economic situation in Taiwan and its approach to relations with the PRC began to change significantly. After Chiang Kai-shek's death in 1975, the post of president and leader of the ruling Kuomintang Party was taken over by his son Jiang Jing-guo (president in 1978 - 1988). At one time, in 1925 - 1937, he lived in the Soviet Union (under the pseudonym N. V. Yelizarov), worked at Uralmashzavod"He even married a Belarusian girl Faina Ipatievna Vakhreva (1916-2004), whom he first took to China, and then to Taiwan.

Jiang Jing-kuo has taken some steps to liberalize the regime. In January 1988, six months before his death, he repealed the "Law on Martial Law" and allowed the creation of opposition parties (one of the first was the Democratic Progressive Party - DPP). Under his leadership, Taiwan began to transform an authoritarian regime into a democratic one, and economic growth was actively underway. The successor of Chiang Kai-shek introduced many representatives of the indigenous population of the island to the government. And even though his successor as president, Lee Deng-hui, still represented the Kuomintang Party,

* Taiwan still has the same hyphenated spelling of the name.

He was a native of the island, and when he ran for president for a second term in 1996, he was elected by direct popular vote for the first time in Chinese history.

The Kuomintang Party removed the slogan "counter-attacks on the mainland" and actually suggested that the PRC move from armed confrontation to peaceful competition and coexistence. However, the Taiwanese authorities still rejected the idea of reunification with the PRC and argued that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign state. Beijing responded with military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait and training launches of ² missiles.

The next president of Taiwan in 2000-2008 was Chen Shui-bian, also a native Taiwanese, but also the leader of the opposition Kuomintang Democratic Progressive Party. After Chen's election, separatist sentiments intensified on the island (which were severely suppressed until the late 1980s: the Kuomintang, unlike the DPP, adhered to the "one China"principle). The DPP came up with the idea of "one China , one Taiwan".

By 2007, the prospect of Taiwan becoming an independent country was becoming increasingly clear to Chinese leaders, especially since both Li Deng-hui and especially his successor Chen Shui-bian had repeatedly stated that Taiwan was a sovereign independent state. In 2006, Chen Shui-bian announced the liquidation of the National Reunification Council established on the island during the rule of Chiang Kai-shek, which caused a negative reaction not only from Beijing, but also from Washington. On October 10, 2007, a military parade involving heavy equipment was held in Taipei for the first time in 16 years to mark the 95th anniversary of the proclamation of the Republic of China (1912). It is characteristic that it took place just before the opening of the 17th CPC Congress in Beijing.

Chen Shui-bian has repeatedly claimed that a thousand Taiwanese Xiongfeng-2E cruise missiles with a range of up to 1,000 km are directed towards the mainland. Just before the next presidential election in Taiwan in March 2008, Chen Shui-bian announced an increase in the island's defense budget in response to increased military spending in the PRC. He intended to combine presidential elections with a referendum (and they were held regularly after 1993) on the issue of "Taiwan's accession to the UN" as a sovereign state based on the "principle of universality"³.

Beijing's reaction was not long in coming. If the Taiwanese authorities persist in their desire to achieve independence, a member of the National People's Congress (NPC)said Jiang Enzhu, "they will pay a heavy price for this"⁴. The referendum was opposed not only by the PRC, but also by the United States, which did not want to aggravate relations with Beijing. It is characteristic that the residents of the island themselves did not support Chen Shui-bian's initiative in the referendum, which was held simultaneously with the presidential election. Moreover, the referendum was declared invalid because it was attended by less than 50% of eligible voters in Taiwan.

At the same time, surveys show that the majority of Taiwanese residents do not support Beijing's "one country, two systems"model⁵. In other words, most residents of the island are not sure that they will be able to maintain the social system, their way of life and, above all, the standard of living, which is many times higher than in the PRC.

"THE TAIWANESE MIRACLE"

In recent decades, Taiwan has made great strides in modernizing its economy, becoming a newly industrialized country. The world started talking about the "Taiwan phenomenon", the "Taiwan miracle".

Lacking any significant natural resources, Taiwan has achieved high competitiveness by creating a high-tech economic model.

Currently, the" star " industries of the Taiwanese industry are electronics, information technology, production of computer components and development of computer programs. Taiwan is the world's largest manufacturer of laptops, LCD monitors, and modems. The Taiwanese authorities are making active efforts to develop their own space program, considering that space exploration leads to an increase in the island's international competitiveness and the development of many related areas. As a result, they have managed to launch several Roksat space satellites for orbital research from American spaceports in recent years.

In 2002. Taiwan joined the WTO, becoming its 144th member at that time, and is making great efforts to expand its foreign trade turnover and diversify it. Much attention is paid to the development of energy, including nuclear power (the construction of the 4th nuclear power plant is being completed), as well as infrastructure (the construction of a high-speed railway like the Japanese Shinkansen, which will connect the north and south of the island, is being completed). The Taipei 101 International Financial Center, which has become one of the tallest skyscrapers in the world (508 m), has become a unique showcase of Taiwan.

Taiwan's gross domestic product is currently estimated at $ 346.4 billion.,

Accordingly, the annual per capita income is more than $ 15,000 (one of the highest rates in Asia). In terms of GDP and foreign trade, Taiwan ranks 18th and 15th in the world, respectively,and 4th in terms of foreign exchange reserves. ⁶

In the past decade, Taiwan's foreign policy authorities have focused on "pragmatic diplomacy", which allows them to establish informal ties with many countries and expand the island's actual participation in the world community (often under the name "Chinese Taipei"). As a result, the Republic of China became an official member of almost 20 intergovernmental organizations, such as the WTO, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), etc. The Taiwanese capital has sister cities with 45 cities and capitals from all five continents of the world (in particular, Los Angeles, Warsaw, Hanoi, Pretoria, etc.) ⁷.

RUSSIA AND TAIWAN

Unofficial contacts were established between Taiwan and Russia. The fundamental principles of the Russian policy towards Taiwan were formulated in the presidential decree of September 15, 1992. It confirmed Russia's position on China's unity and stressed that all relations with Taiwan are possible only on an unofficial basis.⁸

In 1992-1993, unofficial representative offices of both sides were opened in Moscow and Taipei (representative offices of the Coordination Commission for Economic and Cultural Cooperation). The trade turnover between the Russian Federation and Taiwan has started to develop, currently reaching $ 3 billion. In 1982, while traveling to Tokyo, Alexander Solzhenitsyn made a private visit to Taiwan under the pseudonym "Professor Schmidt". In 1994, Mikhail Gorbachev also visited Taiwan as a private citizen, who, by the way, was received by the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Lee Deng-hui, and other officials. In December 1995, as Mayor of Taipei, Chen Shui-bian visited Russia to accept an honorary doctorate degree from the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Plekhanov (during his stay in St. Petersburg, he had a chance to meet with the future President of Russia Vladimir Putin). In March 1997, President Li Deng-hui presented the Order of the Shining Star on a Large Ribbon to Mstislav Rostropovich in Taipei. In September of the same year, the current President of Taiwan Ma Ying-ju (then he was a minister without portfolio of the Taiwanese administration) visited the Russian Federation and took part in the Moscow forum of the World Association of International Law Experts. In 2000. Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Zhores Alferov headed a delegation of Russian scientists to Taiwan.

In October 2008, a delegation of the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies (RUSNANO) headed by General Director A. Chubais visited Taiwan. The RUSNANO delegation visited the Taiwan Institute for the Study of Industrial Technologies, located on the territory of the Hsinchu Science and Technology Park, where they got acquainted with innovative developments using nanotechnology.

BEIJING: "COAST UNIFICATION IS A HISTORICAL NECESSITY"

Beijing's policy towards Taiwan in recent years includes two closely related components. On the one hand, it is a policy of peaceful unification with Taiwan on the basis of the "one country, two systems" course through ever closer and broader cooperation, including encouraging the exchange of people, developing trade and economic relations, stimulating mutual investment injections, up to the commitment of the Chinese government to promote the well - being of the island's inhabitants. "China is the common home of compatriots on both sides," Hu said at the 17th Congress of the Communist Party of China. "Understanding, trusting, and caring for our Taiwanese compatriots, we will continue to implement and supplement programs and measures that are beneficial to them, protect their legitimate rights and interests, and support the economic development of the West Bank of the Taiwan Strait and other regions of the country where Taiwanese merchants' investments are relatively concentrated. Compatriots on both sides are expected to strengthen contacts, stimulate cultural and economic exchange, expand its scope and improve its level, promote direct mail, transport and trade links, make their relations more friendly and cooperation deeper, and make joint efforts to realize the great revival of the Chinese nation."⁹. The unification of the coasts is a historical necessity for the great revival of the Chinese nation, stressed Hu Jintao.

China, including Hong Kong (Hong Kong) and Macao (Macao), has become Taiwan's largest trading partner. In 2006, their trade turnover reached $ 116 billion. Taiwanese companies are estimated to have invested more than $ 100 billion in the Chinese economy. ¹⁰ The Taiwanese Government is currently committed to developing economic relations with mainland China.-

in the form of a "Common Market in the Taiwan Strait Region".

In recent years, the number of private trips by Taiwanese citizens to China has increased significantly, reaching 4.1 million by 2005. Currently, more than a million Taiwanese people live and work in China.

After refusing direct contact with the Chen Shui-bian administration and claiming that its separatist policies "pose a major threat to peace and stability in the region," Beijing has been welcoming prominent Taiwanese politicians who agree with the "one China"principle since 2005. In particular, in April 2005, after 60 years of military and ideological hostility, Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, met with Liang Zhang, then leader of the opposition Kuomintang Party. After that, he met with the leader of the opposition "Party of Intimacy with the People" (Jinmindang), formerly one of the leaders of the Kuomintang, Sun Chu-yu. Beijing has launched a number of policy initiatives to facilitate access of Taiwanese goods to the Chinese market and private travel of Chinese and Taiwanese citizens across the Strait.

On the other hand, Beijing demands Taipei to recognize the "one China" principle, using a fairly powerful missile fist in the southern coastal provinces of the country as a military deterrent to Taiwanese separatists, as well as conducting repeated maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. Obviously, according to the Chinese leaders, a serious warning for the Taiwanese separatists should have been the "Law on Countering State Division" adopted in China in March 2005, which defined the conditions for China to apply "non-peaceful and other necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity" (Article 8). Readiness to use force in any case should have been considered a serious warning for the Taiwanese separatists. Beijing has repeatedly proclaimed a critical situation.

However, Beijing understands that the issue of using force against Taiwan, even in a critical situation, is quite sensitive, especially since Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. After all, in this regard, there is a serious possibility of US military intervention in the solution of the Taiwan problem. Despite the almost 30-year absence of diplomatic relations, the United States and Taiwan continue to cooperate militarily. In 1979, after the termination of official ties in the United States, the "Law on Relations with Taiwan" was adopted, which obliged Washington to supply the island with weapons necessary for defense against the PRC. In the 1990s, the military partnership between Taiwan and the United States reached an even higher level.

During her visit to Beijing in February 2008 and talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated that " the US side adheres to its obligations to recognize only one China and opposes unilateral changes in the Taiwan Strait area."¹¹. At the same time, she stressed that the United States does not support the initiative of the Taiwan administration to hold a referendum on the island's accession to the UN. The United States is making it clear that it does not currently want tensions in the Taiwan Strait, that it is in favor of a peaceful dialogue between Beijing and Taipei and maintaining the status quo in the region.

However, in early October of this year, the Pentagon announced the resumption of arms supplies to Taiwan after a short break. They include the Patriot-3 anti-aircraft missile system, designed for missile and air defense, combat helicopters, an electronic reconnaissance aircraft, anti-ship missiles, and spare parts for American fighters that the Taiwanese armed forces already have. All of this will cost Taiwan $ 6 billion. ¹²

WARMING, BUT THERE'S A LONG WAY TO GO

It is quite natural that at the 17th Congress the question of Beijing's forceful influence on the Taiwan situation was not emphasized, although Hu Jintao said: "we will not allow anyone to split Taiwan from China under any pretext or in any form whatsoever." At the same time, touting the state of "long - term prosperity and stability" of the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions (and thus hinting to Taiwan's leaders that if the island is peacefully united, it will receive the same status and will continue to flourish), the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee put forward a new initiative on the Taiwan problem. He proposed "officially ending the state of hostility between the coasts and reaching an agreement on peace, creating a framework and a new environment for the peaceful development of inter-coastal relations." ¹³

Of course, this is a strong move on the part of Beijing: Taipei recognizes the "one China" principle, and Beijing refuses to use force if there is no threat of declaring Taiwan's independence. By putting forward the idea of concluding a peace agreement between the shores of the Taiwan Strait, the leaders of the People's Republic of China, apparently, declare their readiness to postpone the implementation of their intention to unite China for the future. It was not without reason that Beijing decided that the future in solving the Taiwan problem will work for China: the development of economic and other cross-Strait ties, economic integration and the involvement of Taiwanese capital in production on the mainland will sooner or later lead to Taiwan's dependence on the PRC. Indeed, Taiwan's economy is now increasingly dependent on trade with China, and the increasing outflow of Taiwanese capital to mainland China in recent years is even of concern to Taiwanese leaders.

The new initiative of the Chinese leaders did not slow down to affect the domestic political situation in Taiwan. In March 2008, the presidential election there was won by Ma Ying-ju, a representative of the then-opposition Kuomintang Party, who clearly stated that he opposed the island's independence and favored dialogue with mainland China.

About 17 million people took part in the election. More than 250,000 of them came to Taiwan, having spent their own money and time to participate in the vote. As a result, Ma Ying-ju became the 9th President of the Republic of China in Taiwan.-

no, significantly ahead of his rival, DPP representative Frank Xie.

The new leader of the Taiwan administration was born in 1950 in Hong Kong to a refugee family from Hunan Province. He grew up in Taiwan, earned a law degree from Harvard University, worked briefly on Wall Street, and then made a quick career in the Kuomintang, even winning two mayoral elections in 1998 and 2002 in Taipei.

Unlike his predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-ju promises to strengthen and expand political and economic ties with China, emphasizing that he intends to make efforts to achieve a peace treaty with China and strengthen relations between the two countries. But on the condition that Beijing removes the missiles aimed at Taiwan. He expressed readiness to start a dialogue on the demilitarization of the Taiwan Straits14.

The new president also spoke in favor of removing investment barriers between the warring parties, expanding Taiwanese investment in the mainland economy, and activating tourist exchanges. At the same time, the new president of Taiwan has opposed unification with China and, apparently, does not intend to negotiate with Beijing on this topic.¹⁵

In July 2008, also after a 60-year hiatus, direct flights between mainland China and Taiwan were resumed: the first 250 Chinese passengers stepped onto the red carpet at Taipei Airport. Chinese Communist Party leader Hu Jintao officially invited to visit the Olympic Games

The new tone voiced by the Taiwanese leader was positively received in Beijing, which led to the beginning of positive developments in Sino-Taiwanese relations. For the first time in 60 years, prominent leaders of Taiwan met with the President of the People's Republic of China. In April - May 2008, China was visited not by representatives of opposition parties, but by representatives of the ruling regime on the island - Vice-President Vincent Xiao and Chairman of the ruling Kuomintang Party Wu Bo-hsiung (both were received by Hu Jintao).

Games in Beijing of the Kuomintang leader Wu Bo-hsiung. Taiwan, as an IOC member, took part in the Beijing Olympics under the unofficial name "Chinese Taipei". Taiwanese athletes won 4 bronze medals (two each in Taekwondo and weightlifting), placing 80th in the team competition.

Speaking about the immediate prospects for the development of the China-Taiwan dialogue, it should be emphasized that both sides seem to have finally come to the conclusion that it is necessary to maintain the stability of relations. The idea of harmonization of international relations, proclaimed in the PRC, its leaders are trying to implement in relations with Taiwan. The interests of China's smooth economic development also require this. In turn, by proclaiming the "three no's" formula - "no unification, no independence, no forceful ways to resolve the Taiwan issue," Taiwanese leader Ma Ying-ju made it clear that he is in favor of maintaining the status quo in the region.

Apparently, Beijing is also ready to agree with this approach today.

However, relations between China and Taiwan continue to be difficult. Thus, in early November 2008, Taipei was visited by Chen Yulin, head of the Taiwan Strait Economic Relations Association under the State Council of the People's Republic of China, who was confronted with large-scale protests from radical students. And on November 11, 2008 in Taipei on charges of corruption and embezzlement of 500 thousand rubles. Chen Shui-bian was taken into custody after receiving US dollars from the state budget. The Taiwanese opposition regarded the arrest of the former President of the Republic of China, a supporter of the declaration of Taiwan's independence, as a political gesture of the current Kuomintang administration to Beijing.

New generations have grown up on the island and on the mainland, for which the ideological differences of the past have lost their former sharpness and such factors as cultural, historical and national community have come to the fore.

The rise to power of the Kuomintang Party in Taiwan, which stands for a united China, and the recent positive developments in Sino-Taiwanese relations can seriously stimulate the process of integration of the two countries. Beijing has a vital interest in this. It is not for nothing that analysts abroad and in the PRC itself have started talking today about the fact that unification with Taiwan will allow China to gain the status of Da Guo, that is, a great power, with all the consequences that follow from this. Even if this process continues to develop, it cannot be hasty. Both domestic and international factors affect this process: the difference in the political and ideological systems of the PRC and Taiwan, the lack of full economic integration of both sides so far, and finally, the slowing effect on this process on the part of the United States, which is unlikely to be tempted by the loss of a strategically important island in the Japan - South Korea - Philippines chain, which.

The implementation of the Sino-Taiwanese integration process may require further serious compromise moves in the position of both Beijing and the ruling administration in Taiwan.

The question of the degree of readiness of the parties to make appropriate compromises remains open.

^{Liu V.} 1 Taiwan Radio asked. 100 answers to listeners of "MRI". Moscow, 2005, p. 25.

² www.amstd.spb.ru

³ www.podrobnosti.na.chronicle.ru

⁴ www.lenta-ru.news.2008.03.05.taiwan

^{Liu V.} 5 Taiwan Radio asked.., p. 112.

⁶ См.: www.gio.gov.tw.taiwan.wcbside.ru

^{Liu V.} 7 Taiwan Radio asked.., pp. 104-109.

⁸ See: Modern Taiwan, Irkutsk, 1994, pp. 6, 169.

⁹ See: russian.peopledaily.com

¹⁰ www.ru.wikipedia.org

¹¹ www.utrade.ru

¹² ww.ng.ru.world.2008.05.10.08

¹³ See: russian.peopledaily.com

¹⁴ At the same time, in August 2008, during a meeting with US congressmen, Ma Ying-ju once again confirmed Taiwan's desire to purchase US defense weapons in the amount of $ 11 billion to ensure national defense capability, and he stressed that the development of positive principles in relations with the PRC will not affect the implementation of these plans.

¹⁵ China News - www.chinanews.ru, 20.05.2008.

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