Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Far East Institute

Since the end of the 19th century, China has gone through a long, painful journey in search of models of modernization. Modernization for China means turning it into a state with modern industry, agriculture, science, culture, services, a high standard of living for the population and sufficient defense. The primary task of modernization in China is considered to be the elimination of poverty and poverty, illiteracy, overcoming the sharp gap in the levels of culture between the city and the countryside and in the levels of socio-economic development between the coastal (eastern) regions of the country and the inner (western) regions, increasing the so - called level of "Xiaokang" - "average prosperity".

The weakening and then ending of bipolar confrontation and the cold war in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union gave China a good chance to implement comprehensive modernization. The Third Plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 11th convocation (December 1978) was a turning point in China's history that created the political prerequisites for a gradual transition to deep economic transformation. The developed strategy of economic reform and opening - up policy is the realistic path of modernization that China has suffered. Ideologically, the new strategy was developed in the form of the concept of "building socialism with Chinese characteristics". It means a fundamental revision of many orthodox ideas about socialism and a condemnation of Mao Zedong's leftist experiments. The development of productive forces and the efficiency of the economy is put at the forefront. Simultaneously with the rejection of the priority of class struggle, there was a de facto tacit recognition of the ideas of convergence of capitalism and socialism. The new pragmatic leadership set out to transform the PRC into a rich and powerful power, while maintaining the political system led by the Chinese Communist Party. Although the concept of" socialism with Chinese characteristics "is considered as a strategy of advanced development, in practice it looks essentially like a combination of a catch-up development strategy and a "strategy of using comparative advantages", tested by the "small tigers".

In the field of foreign policy, China's new development strategy is characterized by maximum pragmatism, rejection of state-imperial and internationalist slogans. Both the CPC Charter and the Chinese Constitution proclaim China's rejection of superpower and hegemony even when it becomes a highly developed state. All China's actions in the field of foreign policy are determined by a single criterion-creating the most favorable external conditions for economic development and growth of China's total power. Beijing seeks to distance itself from international events that are not directly related to this main goal.

China's chosen strategy for modernizing the country and ensuring favorable foreign policy conditions for it have allowed for more than two decades of implementing reforms to achieve very impressive, indisputable and obvious results, which can be summarized in four positions.

Stable and high rates of economic growth have been achieved. From 1979 to 1997, they were CA-

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They were the highest in the world and accounted for 9.8 percent. China's combined power has grown significantly. The country's GDP has grown more than 20-fold in just over two decades , from 362.4 billion yuan in 1978 to more than 8600 billion yuan in 2000. In comparable prices, GDP increased almost sevenfold. In 2000, China's GDP at the exchange rate exceeded one trillion dollars, that is, China ranked 7th in the world after the United States, Japan, Germany, France, England, and Italy. In terms of more than 11 indicators of the main traditional types of industrial and agricultural products, China has taken a leading position in the world (coal, steel, cast iron, cotton, silk, artificial fabrics, cement, TV production, communications equipment, grain, cotton, rapeseed, meat production (!). However, due to the large population, the level of the average per capita income of the population of the Republic of China is Consumption in China is still at the lowest level of developing countries.

Foreign trade turnover in 2000 exceeded $ 350 billion (in 1978 it was only $ 20.6 billion). In 1999, $ 55 billion of foreign investment was used, and during all the years of reforms, the volume of direct investment amounted to more than $ 500 billion, and China ranked first in terms of investment among developing countries and second 1 place in the world, second only to the United States. The country's foreign exchange reserves increased from $ 167 million in 1978 to $ 156 billion in 1999. China's external debt is stable at $ 151 billion.

In the course of the reforms, the living standards of the population and the quality of this level have significantly increased. Cultural needs have increased. Housing conditions have improved dramatically. The number of the poorest has been reduced from 250 to 45 million.

The scientific and technical level has increased. More than 90 percent of industrial equipment has been updated, which is 26 percent up-to-date with the international level and almost 30 percent up-to-date with the national level. Scientific and technological progress accounts for more than 30 percent of the country's economic growth.

China's international prestige has significantly increased. Over the years of reforms, China has fully normalized its relations with all the major powers of the world: the United States, Japan, Russia, India, as well as with Vietnam and other neighboring countries.

China's modernization strategy is multi-stage. The year 2000 was the basic stage for China's solution to the problem of creating the initial foundations of economic modernization, solving the problems of food and clothing for its 1.3 billion population. This task is generally solved. China has long surpassed the $ 500 threshold for improving the country's welfare level on average. By 2010, the goal is to create a comprehensive market system of a socialist nature, and by 2050, the goal is to achieve the current average per capita indicators of developed countries. At the end of the XXI century, the task of equalizing the level of socio-economic and cultural development of China with the most developed countries of the world is postponed.

To achieve these goals, the model of China's socio-economic development is being seriously adjusted.

First, the task of moving from extensive to intensive is put forward-

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In other words, the emphasis is shifted to implementing qualitative changes in the Chinese economy at high growth rates, shifting towards knowledge - intensive production, reforming the banking and financial system, and radically restructuring state-owned industry. Efforts are being made to revive private economic initiative. According to the Constitution, private entrepreneurship is granted equal rights with State entrepreneurship. To improve the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, they are being transformed into large corporations modeled on South Korea's Chae-bol. Scientific and technological progress is considered the main factor of economic growth. The theoretical justification for adjusting the model of socio-economic development of China is the idea of creating a "knowledge economy" society, about various concepts of which there are lively discussions in China.

Second, the policy of openness focuses not just on expanding external relations, but on integrating China into the regional and global economy. The idea of creating a new economic grouping - the East Asian Forum (China - Japan - South Korea) is put forward.

Forecasts of the Institute of the Far East and leading foreign centers for the study of China, including expert estimates of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, agree that if the current GDP growth rates are maintained, by 2015-2020, China will reach and exceed the absolute indicators of the combined national power of the United States and Japan in all major modern types of production. However, even then, China will seriously lag behind highly developed countries in terms of the level and quality of life, since the population of China is five times larger than in the United States, nine times larger than in Russia, and 10 times larger than in Japan.

The realization of China's chance for an economic breakthrough is favored by a number of internal and external factors. The former include: a high percentage of savings (40 percent) in a relatively low consumption environment, the population's commitment to the Confucian ethic of collectivism, hard work and debt, a huge amount of cheap labor (currently there are more than 700 million working-age people in China), a favorable domestic investment climate and high confidence of the Chinese population in state-owned financial institutions, which makes it possible to attract huge domestic and external investments, the presence of large scientific and technological potential; an effective system for borrowing experience in managing industry and management and using foreign investment in special economic zones, scientific and technological development zones and open zones; large foreign exchange reserves, stability of the Chinese currency and confidence of external investors in it, balance of external debt and foreign exchange reserves of the country. An important role for China's economic development is played by a favorable external environment, primarily the absence of military threats, de facto non-participation in the arms race, non-involvement in major international conflicts and distancing from major hotbeds of tension, except for Taiwan, as well as the presence of capacious foreign markets for Chinese goods, the ability to maintain the most favorable mutually beneficial relations with the largest monetary and financial international organizations. organizations that are willing to provide loans to China on very favorable terms, China's expected accession to the WTO and the development of measures to protect against the negative consequences of China's accession to the WTO with the tacit consent of international monetary organizations, involvement in the process of globalization of the world economy.

Taking advantage of this opportunity, China is gradually and confidently moving towards becoming the world's largest power. Similar prospects cause concern for

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many people are concerned. In the West, in Japan, as well as in some Russian media, the thesis of the "Chinese threat"is actively exaggerated. Some ideas of "containing" China are also being put forward. However, the realization of favorable factors for China's development in the twenty-first century, while achieving the lofty goals that it has set for itself, faces a number of serious challenges and difficulties, and at the same time generates a number of temptations. These challenges are both internal and external in nature, and many of them are a kind of payment for modernization. The most serious internal challenges and problems include, first of all, the enormous demographic pressure, the need to maintain and ensure the growth of well-being, meet the cultural and material needs of the population. To maintain the current level of well-being of the population, China spends about four out of eight percent of GDP growth annually, that is, to implement the task of modernization and solve social problems, China must constantly maintain a development rate of at least seven percent.

So far, the problem of a huge surplus of labor has not been solved. In the country, according to Chinese analysts, the number of unemployed and semi-unemployed currently ranges from 153 to 180 million people. The State spends huge amounts of money to maintain their existence. However, this also poses serious challenges to the country's political and economic stability.

Catastrophic environmental destruction continues. In the twenty-first century, China is entering the "narrowest ecological passageway" caused by the presence of a huge population, a sharp decline in arable land, acute water scarcity, an increase in natural disasters caused by human activities, floods due to deforestation and desertification of the country at a rate of 1.5 thousand square kilometers per year.

One of the major problems in China is the low quality of economic growth and low industrial efficiency, the low quality of the labor force and low labor productivity. Growth is achieved primarily through huge investments of capital and live labor. Energy and resource costs are high, and the extensive management method still dominates. Capital investment efficiency is low, and technical progress is slow.

Deflation has become particularly acute over the past two or three years. In 1998-1999, China saw its domestic prices drop by one to two percent for the first time. Deflation in China was an indirect consequence of the Asian financial crisis, which led to a reduction in the growth of Chinese exports and an increase in the supply of goods on the domestic market without a corresponding increase in effective demand. The reason for deflation is the irrational structure of production. To overcome it, the Chinese leadership has resorted to measures to encourage personal consumption and large investments in public works - the construction of roads, bridges, dams, and housing construction. In general, this has helped to overcome the current deflationary trends, but without a deep reform of the public sector, the banking and financial system and stimulating the growth of exports and incomes of the population, the threat of deflation remains.

The country continues to experience extreme unevenness in the pace and level of socio-economic development of China's coastal and inland regions. For example, the gap in the standard of living of Shanghai residents and residents of western provinces reaches 15 times.

The interference of the authorities in the allocation of resources leads to the actual commercialization of power in the market conditions, and allows the bureaucracy to distribute profits in its favor through power levers. This phenomenon in China is called "gray distribution" and is regarded by Chinese analysts as an illegal use of power to carry out initial capital accumulation. Corruption has been declared a national disaster. Jiang Zemin was forced to admit that "the CCP will perish if it does not overcome corruption."

Despite the best efforts of the authorities, the gap between urban and rural areas is growing and property differentiation is becoming more acute.

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Although there is a significant increase in welfare in the countryside, its level is actually five times, and in the western regions it is 10 times or more lower than in the city.

The policy of increasing the efficiency of the economy, increasing the power of the state while reducing attention to social aspects, and commercializing all aspects of society's life challenges traditional Chinese civilizational Confucian values, destroys Chinese historical culture by instilling mass entertainment culture, individualism, the pursuit of the" golden calf", and encouraging consumerism.

We must not forget about such an important moment: China is entering the phase of changing the third generation of leaders of the country, connected with the traditions and experience of the Chinese revolution. This generational change in the Chinese leadership, which is likely to take a period of 5 to 10 years, is causing many Russian and foreign analysts to think about ensuring continuity of the current reform strategy and openness policy. The thesis that the course of reforms and the policy of openness is irreversible is indisputable. However, the current emphasis on the socialist orientation of economic reforms and linking them to the ideology of socialism with Chinese characteristics can be revised.

The Chinese leadership sees and realistically assesses both the favorable chances and the difficulties and challenges that China faces on the path of modernization and reform in the context of globalization and the growth of Asian regionalism. Beijing seeks to use the" double-edged sword " of globalization in the interests of reform and neutralize as much as possible the negative aspects that threaten the independence of China's banking and financial system and domestic stability. China focuses its efforts on economic development, while externally it focuses on protecting national interests and creating favorable international conditions for China's modernization.

At the same time, China's tremendous success in recent years is reviving the long-standing imperial traditions of China among a certain part of the country's population and political elite, and generating a peculiar imperial temptation of globalism and superpower among a certain part of Chinese society. Articles and books appear in the Chinese press that call for "squaring your shoulders", "raising your head higher"," saying no to the hegemony of great powers"," firmly protecting and promoting China's interests", and"asserting the greatness of Chinese culture". The American bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade has particularly provoked the growth of such sentiments. There have been calls to reconsider the current foreign policy course and even claims that the PRC has enough combined power to resist the United States and solve the problem of China's unification, that is, the annexation of Taiwan, as it sees fit.

Among politicians and business people. closely related to cooperation with the West, there is often a tendency to view our country as a junior partner in China's trade with the West, as well as as a source of energy and raw materials resources and military technologies. Representatives of these influential forces seek to limit China's strategic partnership with Russia to the foreign and defense spheres, giving full preference to the development of economic cooperation with the West and the developed countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

Numerous discussions with Chinese colleagues lead to the conclusion that China does not intend to embark on a path of confrontation with the United States. Beijing is likely to do its best to maintain business relations with the country in order to have access to U.S. markets, technology, and investment. Relations with America will be complex and develop according to the formula: coexistence, cooperation, competition, rivalry, and at the very least, regulated confrontation as the worst possible solution to the Taiwan issue. In relation to the United States, as well as other developed countries, China is pursuing a strategy of creating maximum interdependence.

As for the prospects of Russian-Chinese relations, it is obvious that the proximity or coincidence of strategic security and development interests within the Asia-Pacific region makes the strategic partnership between Russia and China optimal for ensuring the interests of the two countries. Experience has shown that existing differences in interests can be resolved by political means on a mutually acceptable basis if there is good will. The biggest mistake Moscow could make with regard to China is to succumb to alarmist sentiments about China's growing power and allow itself to be drawn into the plans put forward by some Western strategists and political scientists to "contain" China.

The real policy of the current Chinese leadership is based on respect for Russia's interests and recognition of its status as a great world power. The signing of the Sino-Russian treaty of friendship, good neighborliness and cooperation (and this proposal was made by Beijing) can be seen as a desire of the current leaders of the PRC to protect the development of strategic partnership relations between the two countries from possible conjunctural political fluctuations during the generational change in the leadership of the PRC and the CPC.

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