4. MARKET GROWTH FACTORS Among the conjunctural factors, the commodity boom of the beginning of the new millennium is of particular importance for the prospects of economic growth in the periphery. New level of commodity prices: impact on economic growth As shown in Figure 8, at the beginning of the new millennium, global oil prices, both in nominal and real terms (in 2004 dollars), went up, dragging down the prices of most commodities. The growth of export revenues has had a positive effect on the economic dynamics of a large number of countries, especially in the NE, easing the situation with budget deficits, servicing external debt, and allowing them to increase current and capital expenditures. In addition, rising commodity prices have stimulated foreign direct investment in developing countries that have commercial reserves of minerals that are in demand on the global market. Figure 8 Chart of world oil prices in 1861-2004, US$ per barrel ----- A source: [BP Statistical Review..., 2005]. Ending. For the beginning, see: East (Oriens). 2006, No. 6, pp. 64-82. page 101 Figure 9 World price indices for oil, wheat, cotton, and gold (1990=100, using the World Bank's industrial product import unit value as a deflator) At the same time, the positive impact of rising commodity prices on the economic dynamics of the periphery should not be overestimated. As the world experience shows, the price gains received by exporters of raw materials are quickly "eaten up" by the retaliatory increase in prices for the products of the manufacturing industry, of which they are importers. Figure 9 shows the world price indices for oil, wheat, cotton, and gold obtained by deflating the current prices of these commodities by the World Bank's Industrial Product Unit Import Value Index. Calculations clearly show that the global economy is quickly adjusting for oil price spikes. After the 1979/1980 price spike, when the oil price index reached 120, it took less than three years for the re ... Read more

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China Online
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03.07.2024 (12 days ago)
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